Obama's Margin of Error in the Polls

C

CanadianKid

New member
If the Poll of polls or the average of polls say that Obama is leading on November 3, 2008 by less than 4% than we have a McCain Presidency....

If its 51% Obama 49% McCain .... Obama losses
If its 50% Obama 47% McCain .... Obama losses

Only if Obama can get 50% vs. 45% McCain .... Obama wins....

CK
 
If Obama loses, there will be all kinds of hand-wringing about how he was "too young" or "untested," or "too exotic," or had too many controversial "friends," or alienated his base w/ the rush to the middle, or whatever.

If Obama loses, given the current political climate, it's because he's black. Period.
 
Onceler said:
If Obama loses, there will be all kinds of hand-wringing about how he was "too young" or "untested," or "too exotic," or had too many controversial "friends," or alienated his base w/ the rush to the middle, or whatever.

If Obama loses, given the current political climate, it's because he's black. Period.
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I 100% agree with this.
 
Onceler said:
If Obama loses, there will be all kinds of hand-wringing about how he was "too young" or "untested," or "too exotic," or had too many controversial "friends," or alienated his base w/ the rush to the middle, or whatever.

If Obama loses, given the current political climate, it's because he's black. Period.
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what a crock of shit. It can't be any other reason than his pigmentation?

ROFLMAO.... what a good little disciple you are. People don't elect "the One" and its because "he's black".
 
What I am saying is Obama is leading by 1%, 2%, or 3% only in the poll of polls than he will not win....

This is because of a number of things, The Bradley Effect, Disenfranchising voters, Diebold machines, etc....

Basically the Karl Rove effect....

The Republicans will pull out all sorts of shit to steal the election again....

But they can only do it in a close election....

CK
 
Onceler said:
If Obama loses, there will be all kinds of hand-wringing about how he was "too young" or "untested," or "too exotic," or had too many controversial "friends," or alienated his base w/ the rush to the middle, or whatever.

If Obama loses, given the current political climate, it's because he's black. Period.
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That's retarded, Onceler. If he does lose that will have a part to play in it, but there will be other considerably more important factors.
 
Superfreak said:
what a crock of shit. It can't be any other reason than his pigmentation?

ROFLMAO.... what a good little disciple you are. People don't elect "the One" and its because "he's black".
Click to expand...

Don't be so intentionally obtuse. There is no way the Democrats lose this year with even a mediocre, whitebread candidate.

Racism is pervasive, and there are PLENTY of racist Democrats or Independents who will not vote for Obama simply because he's black. Certainly enough to make this election much closer than it should be, and possibly tip it McCain's way.
 
Epicurus said:
That's retarded, Onceler. If he does lose that will have a part to play in it, but there will be other considerably more important factors.
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Nope. No way to square that with R’s losing seats in red districts in Missisippi and Louisiana, as well as R’s set to lose seats all over this country. In fact, I read last week, they now consider none very safe.

No way to square it.

Why are Americans so afraid to say the truth?
 
"Why are Americans so afraid to say the truth?"

So much perplexed punditry over the past few weeks. Why are the polls close? Obama should be running away with it? What could it possibly be?

In the last few Democratic primaries, they did exit polls where an average of between 20-25% of DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS said race was an issue for them as they cast their vote (most, coincidentally, for Hillary).

So how could things be so close? What could possibly be happening?

Duh...
 
Darla said:
Nope. No way to square that with R’s losing seats in red districts in Missisippi and Louisiana, as well as R’s set to lose seats all over this country. In fact, I read last week, they now consider none very safe.

No way to square it.

Why are Americans so afraid to say the truth?
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Because they are all closet bitches like Epicurus....

CK
 
Onceler said:
Don't be so intentionally obtuse. There is no way the Democrats lose this year with even a mediocre, whitebread candidate.

Racism is pervasive, and there are PLENTY of racist Democrats or Independents who will not vote for Obama simply because he's black. Certainly enough to make this election much closer than it should be, and possibly tip it McCain's way.
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While I agree that there is racism and that there are some that will vote against Obama due to race... to act like the only way he loses is due to race is nothing more than race baiting on your part.

There are a multitude of reasons people might not vote for Obama....

1) Pro-abortion
2) Wealth redistribution - aka tax the "rich" even more
3) Raise taxes on cap gains
4) Inexperience
5) NO significant accomplishments in the Senate or Illinois State legislature
6) Reluctant to look at all sources of replacing foreign energy demands


Side note: learn the definition of obtuse. There is nothing obtuse about stating your assertation is a crock of shit.
 
You got people like Watermark, Chapdog, Topspin.... who all say they are voting for Obama....

Until they get to the voting booth and write down McCain....

CK
 
Onceler said:
"Why are Americans so afraid to say the truth?"

So much perplexed punditry over the past few weeks. Why are the polls close? Obama should be running away with it? What could it possibly be?

In the last few Democratic primaries, they did exit polls where an average of between 20-25% of DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS said race was an issue for them as they cast their vote (most, coincidentally, for Hillary).

So how could things be so close? What could possibly be happening?

Duh...
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I know. I can't believe it. Americans, and most especially those with con leanings, are hell-bent on selling the story "sure there are a couple of racists, but not enough to swing an election".

Why?

Is it because if there is that much racism left in this country, and it were shown, they're afraid it would be used for...for what? AA programs? Reparations? WTF are these people afraid of?
 
"1) Pro-abortion
2) Wealth redistribution - aka tax the "rich" even more
3) Raise taxes on cap gains
4) Inexperience
5) NO significant accomplishments in the Senate or Illinois State legislature
6) Reluctant to look at all sources of replacing foreign energy demands"

Most of those are reasons anyone would vote against any basic Democrat.

The election will likely be within a few % points. Based on the exit poll figures I posted above for the primaries, I think it's not a stretch to say that a significant % above that have already admitted they will not vote for a black guy.

I'm not talking about the votes Obama wouldn't get normally. I'm talking about the votes that won't go to him simply because he's a black man, and there are clearly enough of those to tip the election.
 
Darla said:
I know. I can't believe it. Americans, and most especially those with con leanings, are hell-bent on selling the story "sure there are a couple of racists, but not enough to swing an election".

Why?

Is it because if there is that much racism left in this country, and it were shown, they're afraid it would be used for...for what? AA programs? Reparations? WTF are these people afraid of?
Click to expand...


Like I said the Southern States is the land of racists...

But now in these Politically Correct times... They cant say they wont vote for a black man....

CK
 
Darla said:
Nope. No way to square that with R’s losing seats in red districts in Missisippi and Louisiana, as well as R’s set to lose seats all over this country. In fact, I read last week, they now consider none very safe.

No way to square it.

Why are Americans so afraid to say the truth?
Click to expand...

It's truthful to say that race will play a factor in this campaign, and it may even be an important one. The media has made a mountain out of a molehill in that regard.

But if this election were to be decided on race alone, then Obama would never have polled above McCain and that is simply not the case.

His shifting support is coming from policy changes and increased visibility, not people suddenly discovering his black.

Mathematically and chronologically your theory doesn't hold water.
 
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