Quick Logic Problem

KingCondanomation said:
And I don't?

Sometimes I wonder if this is a popularity contest with those joining in later.

In any case, I would urge anyone reading this thread to disregard both mine and Damo's argument and simply look at this VERY well known example in probabibility theory that deals with this exact case:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

I simply fail to understand how ANYONE could read that and pretend that out of all the hundreds of professors and thousands of students who have gone over that well-known case, why if there is not a SINGLE dissentation to it on Wikipedia, how they can actually claim that all those people missed it, that it's wrong and that they are right.
I know the term gets thrown around loosely on here, but this is insane.
Click to expand...

Those joining in later? Maybe I just have a freakin life there buddy and didn't notice this thread until today?
 
KingCondanomation said:
And I don't?

Sometimes I wonder if this is a popularity contest with those joining in later.

In any case, I would urge anyone reading this thread to disregard both mine and Damo's argument and simply look at this VERY well known example in probabibility theory that deals with this exact case:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

I simply fail to understand how ANYONE could read that and pretend that out of all the hundreds of professors and thousands of students who have gone over that well-known case, why if there is not a SINGLE dissentation to it on Wikipedia, how they can actually claim that all those people missed it, that it's wrong and that they are right.
I know the term gets thrown around loosely on here, but this is insane.
Click to expand...

From your site...

"Mistakes
A look at why some "explanations" are flawed can be very explanatory.

For example, to answer the second question someone may make this list of possibilities:

The boy has an elder brother
The boy has a younger brother
The boy has an elder sister
The boy has a younger sister

Apparently only the latter two are the ones sought for, giving a total probability of 1/2. The error here is that the first two statements are counted double. If there are two boys, we have no referent for "the boy". Therefore the first two possibilities should read:

A boy has an elder brother
A boy has a younger brother

But now it is clear that these two statements are equivalent – both effectively state that there are two boys – and therefore one should be removed."


This is where their MISTAKE is made. To disregard the two, which are NOT equivalent for being equivalent. By that 'logic' you should also look at

"The boy has an elder sister
The boy has a younger sister "

restate them as

a boy has an elder sister
a boy has a younger sister

Then proclaim.... they both effectively state that there is one boy and one girl - therefore one should be removed.
 
Superfreak said:
From your site...

"Mistakes
A look at why some "explanations" are flawed can be very explanatory.

For example, to answer the second question someone may make this list of possibilities:

The boy has an elder brother
The boy has a younger brother
The boy has an elder sister
The boy has a younger sister

Apparently only the latter two are the ones sought for, giving a total probability of 1/2. The error here is that the first two statements are counted double. If there are two boys, we have no referent for "the boy". Therefore the first two possibilities should read:

A boy has an elder brother
A boy has a younger brother

But now it is clear that these two statements are equivalent – both effectively state that there are two boys – and therefore one should be removed."


This is where their MISTAKE is made. To disregard the two, which are NOT equivalent for being equivalent. By that 'logic' you should also look at

"The boy has an elder sister
The boy has a younger sister "

restate them as

a boy has an elder sister
a boy has a younger sister

Then proclaim.... they both effectively state that there is one boy and one girl - therefore one should be removed.
Click to expand...

First thanks for looking at the site, Thorn, Damo and Asshat never acknowledged actually at least taking a look at it.

But you're still wrong, because we can say "THE boy" (in the last 2 statements), because if there is a girl, than logically, there is only 1 boy - there is no ambiguity about which boy you are referring to as there is only 1, there is only ambiguity over his order in being born.
 
KingCondanomation said:
First thanks for looking at the site, Thorn, Damo and Asshat never acknowledged actually at least taking a look at it.

But you're still wrong, because we can say "THE boy" (in the last 2 statements), because if there is a girl, than logically, there is only 1 boy - there is no ambiguity about which boy you are referring to as there is only 1, there is only ambiguity over his order in being born.
Click to expand...

Wrong again.

To say that 'a boy has an older brother' is the same as 'a boy has a younger brother' is NO different than saying 'a boy has an older sister' is equivalent to 'a boy has a younger sister'. There is no difference.

You cannot do it to one and not the other.
 
Superfreak said:
Wrong again.

To say that 'a boy has an older brother' is the same as 'a boy has a younger brother' is NO different than saying 'a boy has an older sister' is equivalent to 'a boy has a younger sister'. There is no difference.

You cannot do it to one and not the other.
Click to expand...
Simple algebra. What you do to one side of the equation must be done in equal measure to the other side.
 
Superfreak said:
Wrong again.

To say that 'a boy has an older brother' is the same as 'a boy has a younger brother' is NO different than saying 'a boy has an older sister' is equivalent to 'a boy has a younger sister'. There is no difference.

You cannot do it to one and not the other.
Click to expand...

If there is:
boy-girl : I can say 'the' boy, we all know who I am talking about
girl-boy : I can say 'the' boy, again we all know who I am talking about
boy-boy : I can NOT say 'the' boy as you do NOT know which one I am talking about


Super, you're a very reasonable guy, I've asked a similar question to Damo and now to you:
"Do you really believe that out of all the hundreds or thousands of professors and thousands or tens of thousands of students that have used that well known example, they all missed something you didn't?"
 
KingCondanomation said:
If there is:
boy-girl : I can say 'the' boy, we all know who I am talking about
girl-boy : I can say 'the' boy, again we all know who I am talking about
boy-boy : I can NOT say 'the' boy as you do NOT know which one I am talking about


Super, you're a very reasonable guy, I've asked a similar question to Damo and now to you:
"Do you really believe that out of all the hundreds or thousands of professors and thousands or tens of thousands of students that have used that well known example, they all missed something you didn't?"
Click to expand...


Educated people believe a lot of stupid things.
 
KingCondanomation said:
If there is:
boy-girl : I can say 'the' boy, we all know who I am talking about
girl-boy : I can say 'the' boy, again we all know who I am talking about
boy-boy : I can NOT say 'the' boy as you do NOT know which one I am talking about


Super, you're a very reasonable guy, I've asked a similar question to Damo and now to you:
"Do you really believe that out of all the hundreds or thousands of professors and thousands or tens of thousands of students that have used that well known example, they all missed something you didn't?"
Click to expand...

To pretend that the preposition somehow voids the math is ridiculous.

This is the same stupidity Marilyn Mach put forth.

Go look at how many professors and others disagreed with the 'logic' used.

A preposition does not change MATH.

I could just as easily say... 'well what if I said the older boy... then you would know whom I am talking about and thus the math changes'... which would be just as moronic. It doesn't change the probability.

In the case of the TWO boys, you do NOT know whether the 'known' boy is the older or the younger. So you still have two sets of data there as well.

Again, if ONE of the TWO is fixed.... then it is a moot point. Because it matters not if you have...

boy boy
boy girl

as the TWO options or

boy1 boy2
boy2 boy1
boy1 girl2
girl1 boy2

as the FOUR options. You still end up with 50/50.

Also, the reason I asked for you a long time ago to provide the 'survey', is because it matters how it was conducted. Did Mach take a random sample of the population and then delete all but the 18000 that met her criteria? Or did she simply say... come to my site if you meet these criteria and tell me where you fit in? Or did she do something else? It matters Dano.

Look at it this way...

According to you there are only three options

Boy boy
boy girl
girl boy

Now take the exact same problem and substitute the known to a girl.... by your logic then there would be three possibilities

Girl girl
Girl boy
boy girl

So the population of two kids would have six outcomes

boy boy
boy girl
girl boy
girl girl
girl boy
boy girl

So you have

1/6 boy boy
1/3 boy girl
1/3 girl boy
1/6 girl girl

So two thirds of all families with two children have one of each?

That would defy statistical probability.
 
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