Study blames speculation for oil's rise

Superfreak said:
The only people ignoring the impact of speculation are the ones that are pretending that speculation only works to drive prices ABOVE fair value. Speculation works BOTH WAYS. Which is why when the fundamentals changed, speculation on oil and nat gas went from bullish to bearish.

Nat gas prices are HALF of what they were a few months ago.

Oil prices are about two thirds of what they were a few months ago.
SPECULATION drove these prices DOWN because the fundamentals changed.
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And still like 3 times what they were 10 years ago. No one is saying that it can't go both ways.

Excuse the fck out of us we have a problem paying for volatile spikes were not supported by supply and demand. Not once did or anyone else assert that was the only reason for the spike in oil prices. The fact is that there have been many experts and studies to conclude that when oil prices were at a high this spring and summer most of the spike was due to speculation. Our dollar has fluxuated, but not nearly as much as you're trying to imply it did. Most of hte studies I've seen put fair value of oil in the $90s. It was in $140s. Can you please give me an estimate of what you think interest rates and currency rates contributed to that $50 spike?
 
The oil market is OVER REGULATED, jesus it's not required for dems to be COMPLETLEY ignorant on economics.
 
LadyT said:
And still like 3 times what they were 10 years ago. No one is saying that it can't go both ways.

Excuse the fck out of us we have a problem paying for volatile spikes were not supported by supply and demand. Not once did or anyone else assert that was the only reason for the spike in oil prices. The fact is that there have been many experts and studies to conclude that when oil prices were at a high this spring and summer most of the spike was due to speculation. Our dollar has fluxuated, but not nearly as much as you're trying to imply it did. Most of hte studies I've seen put fair value of oil in the $90s. It was in $140s. Can you please give me an estimate of what you think interest rates and currency rates contributed to that $50 spike?
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No, actually it is ten times higher than it was in 1999.... when oil was kept artificially low by.... SPECULATORS.

As I said, yes, speculation CAN keep current prices above fair value, which they were. Just as speculation can keep them BELOW fair value as was the case in 1999.

But to blame speculators for investing based on market fundamentals is idiotic. CHANGE the fundamentals. Don't try to regulate investors ability to protect themselves.

If you believed that the price of a diamond you wanted was going to go from 'x' dollars to '3x' in the next year and so did everyone else looking to buy the diamond... would you be willing to pay more than 'x' for it today even though you would be paying above its current fair value???
 
Superfreak said:
No, actually it is ten times higher than it was in 1999.... when oil was kept artificially low by.... SPECULATORS.

As I said, yes, speculation CAN keep current prices above fair value, which they were. Just as speculation can keep them BELOW fair value as was the case in 1999.

But to blame speculators for investing based on market fundamentals is idiotic. CHANGE the fundamentals. Don't try to regulate investors ability to protect themselves.

If you believed that the price of a diamond you wanted was going to go from 'x' dollars to '3x' in the next year and so did everyone else looking to buy the diamond... would you be willing to pay more than 'x' for it today even though you would be paying above its current fair value???
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So, how much of the increase that we saw over the spring and summer was due to currency and interest rates?
 
Damocles said:
Wow. Well... that's very exciting. Did they note the rise of the dollar? Did they inform of any of the other reasons that would make speculators start to remove money from futures? Or did they just assume that ignorance would make it an emotional issue and people would work to punish speculators?
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Speculators should be punished.

They should get real jobs like the rest of us instead of just making side bets.

The degree that this speculation is comingled with the personal success of policy makers, the whole practice should be discarded.
 
LadyT said:
^^QFT^^

SF's hackery knows no bounds.
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Right... because everyone was bitching just as much about the speculation driving oil prices below fair value. Gotcha...

All the bitching about speculation has been solely with regards to the times when it is overvaluing a commodity.
 
LadyT said:
So, how much of the increase that we saw over the spring and summer was due to currency and interest rates?
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Lets see.... the fed cut rates hard in January and the dollar subsequently went from about $79 to $71... which sent oil up about $50.... now over the last few months the dollar has increased from $71 to $80 and oil is back at $100.

Pretty much similar moves. The cause of the dollar changing was different... the downward push in the dollar due to the Fed cuts... the upward due to our economy strengthening relative to other countries.

Speculation both ways pushed it faster than it should have gone based on the pure dollar moves.

But again.... if you want speculation to cease over-valuing a commodity... regulation is a ridiculous way to go about it.

Change the fundamentals of the commodity.
 
Superfreak said:
Right... because everyone was bitching just as much about the speculation driving oil prices below fair value. Gotcha...

All the b!tching about speculation has been solely with regards to the times when it is overvaluing a commodity.
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Strawman's and now a Red herring.
 
Oh the humanity! It's like, my eyes want to look away, but I can't stop myself from looking directy at Tiana's skewering of SF, it's like a gruesome car accident.

When will he finally beg Damo for help, and start begging "no mas, no mas" as he has done in the past?
 
Superfreak said:
Lets see.... the fed cut rates hard in January and the dollar subsequently went from about $79 to $71... which sent oil up about $50.... now over the last few months the dollar has increased from $71 to $80 and oil is back at $100.

Pretty much similar moves. The cause of the dollar changing was different... the downward push in the dollar due to the Fed cuts... the upward due to our economy strengthening relative to other countries.

Speculation both ways pushed it faster than it should have gone based on the pure dollar moves.

But again.... if you want speculation to cease over-valuing a commodity... regulation is a ridiculous way to go about it.

Change the fundamentals of the commodity.
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Link?
 
AssHatZombie said:
People invested in oil will not allow the fundamentals to change. They don't actually want to drill because they make more money with less work when commodities are scarce.
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your as retarded as these two ditz's
Watch how fast drilling starts in the area's opened up.:pke:
 
LadyT said:
Strawman's and now a Red herring.
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It is not a strawman if indeed everyone who is bitching about speculation does so only on the upside as I suggested.

I note that not one of you has praised those evil speculators for turning bearish on oil and pushing the price down from $148 to $102.
 
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