the Hillary bump...

Jarod said:
Have you ever heard of the difference between a trend and statistical noise?
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and would the running average of ALL polls in the country be a trend or statistical noise?.......are your posts trends or statistical noise?......I linked you to RCP's average just a few posts up.......you have no excuse not to look other than fear of what you will find.......
 
PostmodernProphet said:
and would the running average of ALL polls in the country be a trend or statistical noise?.......are your posts trends or statistical noise?......I linked you to RCP's average just a few posts up.......you have no excuse not to look other than fear of what you will find.......
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Even an average of all polls can and will show statistical noise, less than individual polls but still it will exist. I don't think there is a trend toward tightening yet, especially with todays new numbers which show LA Times, the best for Trump, putting Clinton back up two points, and another showing her up 12.
 
Jarod said:
Even an average of all polls can and will show statistical noise, less than individual polls but still it will exist. I don't think there is a trend toward tightening yet, especially with todays new numbers which show LA Times, the best for Trump, putting Clinton back up two points, and another showing her up 12.
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today's polls, added to the RCP average, brings her even lower +5.4 in the two way race, down to +4 in the four way race with Stein and Johnson.....apparently third parties are hurting her worse than they are Trump.....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
 
Its particularly bad for Dishonest Don, the guy is based on calling himself a winner! He talked about how easy it was going to be to beat HRC, if he wins, it wont have been easy!
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I'm not sure why you think her declining lead is not good news for Trump.....
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http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/


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General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Clinton 45, Trump 38, Johnson 10, Stein 4 Clinton +7
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Quinnipiac Clinton 51, Trump 41 Clinton +10
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I notice that the third party candidates cost Hillary 6 points and Trump only 3 points......what do you anticipate the impact of thiurd parties will have on the election.....
 
PostmodernProphet said:
we can watch that and see if it arrests the trend.......we will probably know tomorrow.....
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You are funny, its statistical noise, not yet a trend. You can call it a trend all you want, but when it bounces like that, its just noise.

Did you take statistics in High School?
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I notice that the third party candidates cost Hillary 6 points and Trump only 3 points......what do you anticipate the impact of thiurd parties will have on the election.....
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I suspect, as historically happens, their impact will decrease as the election gets closer.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I notice that the third party candidates cost Hillary 6 points and Trump only 3 points......what do you anticipate the impact of thiurd parties will have on the election.....
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In close states, some of those 3rd party voters will play it safe & vote Hillary. It's pretty tellling that she does much better in the head-to-head.

Trump's biggest issue is that he is having a really hard time breaking out of the 30's or low 40's in most polls. His ceiling is a problem, and that all ties into the fact that he only appeals to a very narrow demographic.
 
Jarod said:
You are funny, its statistical noise, not yet a trend. You can call it a trend all you want, but when it bounces like that, its just noise.

Did you take statistics in High School?
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I agree.....the poll today is insufficient to be called a trend....maybe if there were TWO polls showing she is doing better.......
 
Jarod said:
I suspect, as historically happens, their impact will decrease as the election gets closer.
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or increase as the news gets worse for Hilliary.....did you hear how she bleached her hard drives so the FBI couldn't see everything on her server?......if she left emails with classified info the stuff she bleached must REALLY have been bad........
 
Thing1 said:
In close states, some of those 3rd party voters will play it safe & vote Hillary. It's pretty tellling that she does much better in the head-to-head.

Trump's biggest issue is that he is having a really hard time breaking out of the 30's or low 40's in most polls. His ceiling is a problem, and that all ties into the fact that he only appeals to a very narrow demographic.
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ceiling is irrelevant......the key is the difference between him and her.....he appeals to a narrow demographic, she appeals to a narrow demographic......the bad news for her is that her demographic doesn't always bother to vote.......
 
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