The philosophical implications of exponential growth
- Thread starter Cypress
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Why MAGA dumbasses were caught flat footed by the pandemic
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Humans are woefully inept at intuitively grasping exponential growth functions. Laypersons as well as political decision makers grossly underestimate exponential growth, regardless of being presented with numerical, graphical or non-quantitative representations. At the same time, however, humans are overconfident despite their poor judgements. The so-called ‘exponential growth bias' is of new relevance in the context of COVID-19, because it explains why humans have fundamental difficulties to grasp the magnitude of a spreading epidemic.
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.201574
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Humans are woefully inept at intuitively grasping exponential growth functions. Laypersons as well as political decision makers grossly underestimate exponential growth, regardless of being presented with numerical, graphical or non-quantitative representations. At the same time, however, humans are overconfident despite their poor judgements. The so-called ‘exponential growth bias' is of new relevance in the context of COVID-19, because it explains why humans have fundamental difficulties to grasp the magnitude of a spreading epidemic.
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.201574
Exponential growth is generally outside our everyday experience, and is difficult to mentally grasp in a tangible way beyond an abstract mathmatical concept.
evince
Truthmatters
Which is why it’s so important to trust the people who actually work all this stuff out
The ones who just want to know the result for the edification for man kind
Truth seekers
There are idiots who attack the truth seekers as having ulterior motives
They are often lead to that belief by someone who wants to fleece them
And they are participating in their own fleecing
The ones who just want to know the result for the edification for man kind
Truth seekers
There are idiots who attack the truth seekers as having ulterior motives
They are often lead to that belief by someone who wants to fleece them
And they are participating in their own fleecing
Just regular printer paper.
Supposedly if you were able to fold it in half 109 times, it would be as thick as the observable universe, though I haven't seen the math verified on that particular example.
not buying that.
a ream of paper is 500 sheets and is < 2" thick
That's thickness which increases linearly, not exponentially.
evince
Truthmatters
Wow
Am I psychic?
I answered him way before he showed he was confused
Actually I realized some might kinda get a little distracted and not think it through enough to understand the example
It’s a great one
Every child has tried to fold a paper as many times as the could
and realized how quickly it gets just to thick
Exponential growth is not intuitive to the human mind, it is almost a mathmatical abstraction outside our everyday experience
I'm just going with your "fold in half 50 times". Perhaps there is an interpretation issue in your example ?
evince
Truthmatters
Thanks
Some people trust everyone
They are innocents like children
Some people trust only what they want to hear
They are idiots
Some people trust those that prove themselves experts by their performance
Those people are wise
no they find that the 8.5 x 11 sheet of paper is too small to be able to continue to fold in half.
but his example did not address the square inches in the paper.
first fold = 2 thicknesses
second fold = 4 thicknesses
keep going and its 71m miles and as a light year is nearly 6 trillion miles, not even close.
I wrote IF you could fold a sheet 50 times, which is physically impossible, but nonetheless instructive as a mathmatical abstraction.
I learned this factoid from mathematics professor Edward Burgar, so the math is rock solid, and I confirmed it myself with calculator.