Trump Has 2-in-3 Chance of Making Greatest Comeback in Modern American Politics

volsrock1 said:
Former President Donald Trump has about a two-in-three chance of completing the greatest political comeback in modern American politics, an Economist model forecast Wednesday.

The model gave President Joe Biden an 83 percent chance of victory in 2020 four years ago.

The model is predicated on national polling and is updated daily with economic indicators. “To work out the likely electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election,” the Economist explained.”

Trump has consistently led Biden in the forecast since March, when the Economist began the simulation.

June 12 represents the largest spread between the two candidates. Trump sits at a 66 in 100 chance of victory, while Biden’s chance is only 33 in 100.


www.breitbart.com

Economist Forecast: Donald Trump Has 2-in-3 Chance of Making Greatest Comeback in Modern American Politics

Former President Donald Trump has about a two-in-three chance of winning back the White House, an Economist model forecast Wednesday.
www.breitbart.com www.breitbart.com
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Trump is headed to jail!

Biden is headed back to the White House for a 2nd Term!

Would you like to put your money on Donnie!

I'll take that bet, that says you are wrong!
 
Concart said:
I respect the Economist, great publication. The problem as I see it is that there is no comp for the upcoming election. You cannot feed a working model with the data you have and accurately predict an outcome given the large number of factors that have never occurred before. How did the economist factor in Trumps conviction? How do they factor in his position that supports an American autocracy? The answer is that they can't, and therefore there is no predictive model for this election. It is simply too unique to forecast.
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As long as the election is close, and we know trump's tricks, Biden will probably win. A one in three chance is close, so I think Biden will probably win.
 
Concart said:
You beat me to it. That is exactly correct, and I said it.... right after you did :)
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Biden is very wary of an october surprise. Putin desperately needs an october surprise benefiting trump.... Much like trump got an october surprise saving him in 2016.
 
Hume said:
I read the Economist as well. Unfortunately their roots are in conservatism. They always side with conservatives against liberals.
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I'm very confident that no one at the Economist thinks Trump is a conservative. They definitely have a conservative bent, and I often differ with their takes, but in general, they are rooted in conservative perspectives, not idealogues. There is actually NOTHING political about Trump's stances. They are all rooted in authoritarianism.
 
Walt said:
Biden is very wary of an october surprise. Putin desperately needs an october surprise benefiting trump.... Much like trump got an october surprise saving him in 2016.
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At this point, most 'surprises' sprung by the right are done for show. They have cried wolf so often that people have stopped listening. Does anyone care about the effort to impeach Biden? I doubt there is any interest in that outside of the nutters.
 
Concart said:
I'm very confident that no one at the Economist thinks Trump is a conservative. They definitely have a conservative bent, and I often differ with their takes, but in general, they are rooted in conservative perspectives, not idealogues. There is actually NOTHING political about Trump's stances. They are all rooted in authoritarianism.
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The Economist is conservative. They have written other articles preferring Trump over Biden.
 
Hume said:
The Economist is conservative. They have written other articles preferring Trump over Biden.
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I would argue that a 'Trump conservative' is an oxymoron. I think they are much similar to the Wall Street Journal. As long as you understand their bent, they can both be useful sources of information. I believe they are using a model that has predicted races in the past. I think that's a mistake on their part.

Currently on 538, Trump is a 51% favorite to win. I would imagine their model is also lacking meaningful historical data.
 
Concart said:
I would argue that a 'Trump conservative' is an oxymoron. I think they are much similar to the Wall Street Journal. As long as you understand their bent, they can both be useful sources of information. I believe they are using a model that has predicted races in the past. I think that's a mistake on their part.
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Agree with that.
 
Concart said:
At this point, most 'surprises' sprung by the right are done for show. They have cried wolf so often that people have stopped listening. Does anyone care about the effort to impeach Biden? I doubt there is any interest in that outside of the nutters.
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The most telling thing about their effort to impeach Biden is they are unable to say for what. They will make allegations when they do not have to back it up with evidence. When they need evidence, they have nothing.
 
Joe is having trouble getting into cars now...his decline over the last few months has been alarming...
Americans are watching...and realizing that a vote for Joe puts Kamala in "charge"...there's nothing more alarming than the thought of that...
 
Walt said:
The most telling thing about their effort to impeach Biden is they are unable to say for what. They will make allegations when they do not have to back it up with evidence. When they need evidence, they have nothing.
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They have SOMETHING and it should be acknowledged. They have the FBI form which their ‘star witness’. lied on under oath and has been indicted for, and they have an indicted arms dealer who is now on the run from the law. THIS is what they have lowered themselves to. It’s disgusting. Every bit of evidence has been made up out of whole cloth and presented by United States congressional leaders as fact.
 
TOP said:
Joe is having trouble getting into cars now...his decline over the last few months has been alarming...
Americans are watching...and realizing that a vote for Joe puts Kamala in "charge"...there's nothing more alarming than the thought of that...
Click to expand...
He can't walk up the big stairs on AF one or walk to Marine One by himself. He is getting bad.
 
volsrock1 said:
Former President Donald Trump has about a two-in-three chance of completing the greatest political comeback in modern American politics, an Economist model forecast Wednesday.

The model gave President Joe Biden an 83 percent chance of victory in 2020 four years ago.

The model is predicated on national polling and is updated daily with economic indicators. “To work out the likely electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election,” the Economist explained.”

Trump has consistently led Biden in the forecast since March, when the Economist began the simulation.

June 12 represents the largest spread between the two candidates. Trump sits at a 66 in 100 chance of victory, while Biden’s chance is only 33 in 100.


www.breitbart.com

Economist Forecast: Donald Trump Has 2-in-3 Chance of Making Greatest Comeback in Modern American Politics

Former President Donald Trump has about a two-in-three chance of winning back the White House, an Economist model forecast Wednesday.
www.breitbart.com www.breitbart.com
Click to expand...
The Economist also predicted Hillary would win in 2016, so they got one out of two right.
 
TOP said:
Joe is having trouble getting into cars now...his decline over the last few months has been alarming...
Americans are watching...and realizing that a vote for Joe puts Kamala in "charge"...there's nothing more alarming than the thought of that...
Click to expand...
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