trumps path to 1237

T

tsuke

New member
Just some rough calculations i made :) discuss

NY – 95 it would be a disaster if he lost here and polls show he gets more than 50%

NJ – 51 – Disaster if he loses here as well WTA

PA – 17 – polls show him ahead and its winner take all for the 17 but the remaining are “unbound” due to gop fixing >.>

RI – 10 – going by expert average Proportional statewide and by congressional district

CT – 20 expert average Proportional statewide; winner-take-all by congressional district

Maryland – 31 – expert average Winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district

Indiana – 39 going by expert average Winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district

WV – 33 – should be a win based on nearby states

Oregon 12 – proportional going by expert average. 12 is around 35-40% of the delegates

Washington 17 Proportional statewide and by congressional district going by expert average

new mexico 10 – proportional 10 is around 35 – 40%

California 99 – Winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district going by expert average

Currently this puts him at 1204. At that point i could easily see 33 super delegates switching just to get it over with (or the PA delegates)

but to seal it he would either have to win Nebraska Montana or South Dakota

Alternatively if kasich were to drop out Trump’s proportional shares get bigger and he doesn’t even need the win in the 3 states i mentioned.
Really trump only needs to win NY NJ WV and one more state and perform at around his average to win outright. If he performs at his average he just ends up at 1204 and it’s not a stretch to see how you can convince 33 superdelegates to back you.I mean some of these superdelegates may have even endorsed him already.
 
The question becomes how many of the unbound delegates can he get, if any, and how many will he need, but I agree he has a very reasonable chance at getting it in the first vote.

If he does not get in the first vote, I dont think he gets it.
 
Jarod said:
The question becomes how many of the unbound delegates can he get, if any, and how many will he need, but I agree he has a very reasonable chance at getting it in the first vote.

If he does not get in the first vote, I dont think he gets it.
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If Trump does not achieve the threshold number of delegates and does not shore up enough support to win the nomination in the first round than Kasich will be the nominee and Marco Rubio will be his running mate. Then all hell will break lose.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
If Trump does not achieve the threshold number of delegates and does not shore up enough support to win the nomination in the first round than Kasich will be the nominee and Marco Rubio will be his running mate. Then all hell will break lose.
Click to expand...


LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!!
 
tsuke said:
Just some rough calculations i made :) discuss

NY – 95 it would be a disaster if he lost here and polls show he gets more than 50%

NJ – 51 – Disaster if he loses here as well WTA

PA – 17 – polls show him ahead and its winner take all for the 17 but the remaining are “unbound” due to gop fixing >.>

RI – 10 – going by expert average Proportional statewide and by congressional district

CT – 20 expert average Proportional statewide; winner-take-all by congressional district

Maryland – 31 – expert average Winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district

Indiana – 39 going by expert average Winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district

WV – 33 – should be a win based on nearby states

Oregon 12 – proportional going by expert average. 12 is around 35-40% of the delegates

Washington 17 Proportional statewide and by congressional district going by expert average

new mexico 10 – proportional 10 is around 35 – 40%

California 99 – Winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district going by expert average

Currently this puts him at 1204. At that point i could easily see 33 super delegates switching just to get it over with (or the PA delegates)

but to seal it he would either have to win Nebraska Montana or South Dakota

Alternatively if kasich were to drop out Trump’s proportional shares get bigger and he doesn’t even need the win in the 3 states i mentioned.
Really trump only needs to win NY NJ WV and one more state and perform at around his average to win outright. If he performs at his average he just ends up at 1204 and it’s not a stretch to see how you can convince 33 superdelegates to back you.I mean some of these superdelegates may have even endorsed him already.
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Do you believe the GOP elite and leaders will allow that to happen?
Don't forget, they get to re-write all the convention rules after the primaries but before the convention.
They can do what they want. It's their game.
 
Leonthecat said:
Do you believe the GOP elite and leaders will allow that to happen?
Don't forget, they get to re-write all the convention rules after the primaries but before the convention.
They can do what they want. It's their game.
Click to expand...

yes i believe if trump hits 1237 they will let him be the nominee.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
If Trump does not achieve the threshold number of delegates and does not shore up enough support to win the nomination in the first round than Kasich will be the nominee and Marco Rubio will be his running mate. Then all hell will break lose.
Click to expand...
That is what Kasich's group has been busy doing
 
tsuke said:
yes i believe if trump hits 1237 they will let him be the nominee.
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I don't think he will though. I'm calculating he'll get around 1165.

Trump has done a poor job of shoring up the delegates which means if he doesn't win on the first round of a contested election then he's toast.
 
The Dude said:
Trump will be the most unpopular candidate ever
Just edging out Mondale
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Mondale only won two States and the Democratic candidate won't be that popular. I'm showing Trump would do better than Cruz by the electoral college. Cruz would win around 7 to 11 States. Trump would win 15 to 18.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I don't think he will though. I'm calculating he'll get around 1165.

Trump has done a poor job of shoring up the delegates which means if he doesn't win on the first round of a contested election then he's toast.
Click to expand...

assuming its that close i think trump gets it. Remember carson has 8 delegates already. I think he can find a way to get that to trump and some of the PA "superdelegates" have said they would vote for the winner of their district.

To really seal it though i think trump needs to win one of the 3 states i mentioned.
 
tsuke said:
assuming its that close i think trump gets it. Remember carson has 8 delegates already. I think he can find a way to get that to trump and some of the PA "superdelegates" have said they would vote for the winner of their district.

To really seal it though i think trump needs to win one of the 3 states i mentioned.
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Carson can unbind his delegates (as can Rubio, Bush, Fiorina, and Paul), but he can't control who they drift toward.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Mondale only won two States and the Democratic candidate won't be that popular. I'm showing Trump would do better than Cruz by the electoral college. Cruz would win around 7 to 11 States. Trump would win 15 to 18.
Click to expand...

Are you incapable of reading unfavorable polling data when comparing Cruz and Trump?
 
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