trumps path to 1237

Trump will easily win New York and that will give him a big boost for Pennsylvania, and the rest of the east,
Cruz will not do well.
 
Pennsylvania's delegates are largely unbound, which means Cruz has already stolen them. Many of the other states, such as RI and CT, Kasich should be competitive in.
 
Rana said:
That is what Kasich's group has been busy doing
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Pretty much. Although hell will be raised if neither Cruz or Trump is nominated the fact is, if no candidate achieves the magic number or wins on the first round of voting than there is no obligating by a political party, legal or otherwise to nominate one of the front runners.

Let's be clear. Political parties are private entities. Not governmental entities. They have the right to nominate who ever they want to run for President. They are under no legal obligation to nominate someone who doesn't get the magic number. In fact being close but not quite just makes you first loser.

Also understand that primary voters represent just a small percentage of general election voters. Political parties only have one reason for existing. To win elections. The Republican party is under no obligation to choose a nominee, like Trump or Cruz, who will lose the general election if that candidate does not achieve the minimum number of delegates via primary elections and caucuses. A certain amount of those delegates will be obligated to support their candidate in the first round of votes at the convention but if there's a high likelihood that such a candidate would not be competitive in the General than it's doubtful they'll get the votes they need.

That means winning the nomination will boil down the candidates being able to negotiate and convince party bosses and delegates that they have the best chance of winning. Kasich, given his polling numbers in a general and given his record of accomplishment in public office blows away either Trump or Cruz would have a high likelihood of out maneuvering either Trump or Cruz which is why they both want him the hell out of the race.
 
tsuke said:
assuming its that close i think trump gets it. Remember carson has 8 delegates already. I think he can find a way to get that to trump and some of the PA "superdelegates" have said they would vote for the winner of their district.

To really seal it though i think trump needs to win one of the 3 states i mentioned.
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Don't think it will happen. For Trump to win have to perform better than he has to date which is, given current trends, pretty unlikely to happen. We're heading to a contested convention. Neither Trump or Cruz can win a contested convention. They're just too unpopular with general election voters.
 
Damocles said:
Dukakis out-Mondaled Mondale.
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No he didn't. Mondale was the second worst defeat in the history of Presidential elections. He won Minnesota and the District of Columbia but at least he lost to a popular President. McGovern won Massachusetts and D.C. but lost to Nixon who was not very popular to say the least.

Dukakis doesn't even make the top ten in electoral Presidential defeats though I will admit that until Gore vs. Bush that was the most depressing election I ever voted for. Bush vs. Dukakis two completely out of touch east coast establishment blue bloods. I held my nose and pulled the lever for Pappa Bush and he did about as well as I expected. At least in Gore vs. Bush in which we had an entitled, effete snob and career social climber vs. a man barely capable of tying his own shoes there was a highly entertaining finish tempered in retrospect by the utter catastrophe that was the Bush administration. It's hard to argue which of those two elections was more depressing but I lean towards Gore vs Bush.
 
tsuke said:
Just some rough calculations i made :) discuss

NY – 95 it would be a disaster if he lost here and polls show he gets more than 50%

NJ – 51 – Disaster if he loses here as well WTA

PA – 17 – polls show him ahead and its winner take all for the 17 but the remaining are “unbound” due to gop fixing >.>

RI – 10 – going by expert average Proportional statewide and by congressional district

CT – 20 expert average Proportional statewide; winner-take-all by congressional district

Maryland – 31 – expert average Winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district

Indiana – 39 going by expert average Winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district

WV – 33 – should be a win based on nearby states

Oregon 12 – proportional going by expert average. 12 is around 35-40% of the delegates

Washington 17 Proportional statewide and by congressional district going by expert average

new mexico 10 – proportional 10 is around 35 – 40%

California 99 – Winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district going by expert average

Currently this puts him at 1204. At that point i could easily see 33 super delegates switching just to get it over with (or the PA delegates)

but to seal it he would either have to win Nebraska Montana or South Dakota

Alternatively if kasich were to drop out Trump’s proportional shares get bigger and he doesn’t even need the win in the 3 states i mentioned.
Really trump only needs to win NY NJ WV and one more state and perform at around his average to win outright. If he performs at his average he just ends up at 1204 and it’s not a stretch to see how you can convince 33 superdelegates to back you.I mean some of these superdelegates may have even endorsed him already.
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If Trump or Clinton become President, America will have a felon as President.
 
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