Election Preview: Obama has a significant, but not insurmountable, Electoral College lead
by Alan Steinberg Aug. 5, 2012
It is only August. Yet the final Electoral College battle of Campaign 2012 has already been shaped.
Since my last Electoral College projections, I have made the following three changes.
Wisconsin has been moved from toss-up status into the “likely Obama” column.
Florida, an original “likely Romney” state, is now a “toss-up” state.
Virginia, previously a “likely Romney” and then a “likely Obama” state, is now a “toss-up” state.
The candidate who wins 270 or more electoral votes is elected President of the United States. I now project Barack Obama as the likely winner of the District of Columbia and the following states, for a total of 257 electoral votes:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4) , Illinois (20), Maine(4), Maryland (10) , Massachusetts (11), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), New York (29), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12), Wisconsin (10)
It is highly unlikely that Mitt Romney will be able to win any of these states. Accordingly, I call them “Obama base states.”
I now project Mitt Romney as the likely winner of the following states, for a total of 206 electoral votes:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).
Similarly, it is highly unlikely that Barack Obama will win any of these states. Accordingly, I call them “Romney base states.”
The election of 2012 will be won or lost in the following five toss-up states, holding a total of 75 electoral votes:
Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6,) Ohio (18), and Virginia (13).
In order for Romney to be elected, he must win all three of the states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, plus either Colorado or Iowa.
Obama only needs to win one of the following three toss-up states to be elected: Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. If the president fails to win any of the aforesaid three states, he can clinch his reelection by winning both Iowa and Colorado.
Obama clearly has the easier Electoral College victory path. Yet one should not discount the real possibility that Romney could pull off an Electoral College victory.
In assessing why Obama has a current Electoral College lead and how Romney can still overtake him, the following five factors should be kept in mind:
1. Obama’s larger electoral vote base is largely a function of what I define as demographic political inelasticity, namely the tendency of certain demographic groups to vote overwhelmingly for one party or the other, regardless of the condition of the economy.
Specifically, the Democrats have maintained the loyalty of African-American, Puerto Rican, Mexican-American, and single women voters, regardless of the current economic doldrums, although Romney is currently leading among married women. The Republicans now have the overwhelming lead among Evangelical and white lower middle class voters.
Demographic political inelasticity exists among these constituencies in the five toss-up states as well. It has not been enough of a commanding factor in any toss-up state, however, to give either candidate a decisive lead.
2. Obama has a narrow lead in the toss-up states of Ohio and Florida, due largely to his success in defining Romney as an out-of-touch plutocrat who outsources jobs and has offshore accounts. This is indeed a distorted portrait, but Obama has gotten away with it, due to the failure of the Romney campaign to tell his rather positive story.
Mitt Romney is a fine family man who saved the 2002 Winter Olympics, led numerous charitable initiatives, and governed successfully in Massachusetts. Unfortunately, the American electorate is largely unaware of this.
The good news for the GOP is that the Romney campaign, at long last, is running positive commercials presenting this story, including a highly effective spot during the current Summer Olympics.
3. As I have written in past columns if Romney picks Senator Rob Portman(R-Ohio) as his vice presidential running mate, this will go a long way towards giving him the edge in Ohio.
4. There is a real possibility that Romney could finish first nationally in the popular vote yet lose the election to Obama in the Electoral College. This is demonstrated vividly by the current Rasmussen Poll. As of Friday, August 3, Romney was ahead nationally in the Rasmussen popular vote poll by four points 47-43. Yet in the Electoral College, Rasmussen has a result virtually identical to mine. The poll has Obama ahead, 247 electoral votes to 206, with each candidate in the lead in the same states as I have it, with the exception of Wisconsin. I have Obama as a likely winner in Wisconsin, while Rasmussen has the state classified as a toss-up.
The reason for this disparity between the popular vote frontrunner and Electoral College leader is simple: While Romney has fewer likely electoral votes than Obama, he has a larger vote margin in his base states than Obama has in his.
Democrats remember how twelve years ago in 2000, Al Gore finished first in the popular vote yet lost in the Electoral College to George W. Bush. If Romney suffers a similar fate in 2012, it will be interesting to see if Republicans and Democrats join forces to sponsor a constitutional amendment to eliminate the Electoral College.
5. In the five toss-up states, the outcome will be determined by effectiveness of message.
The Romney campaign message will be largely positive: Mitt Romney is an outstanding family man, civic leader, businessman, and effective former governor who can generate the vigorous economic recovery that the incumbent president, Barack Obama has failed to achieve.
The Obama campaign message will continue to be almost totally negative: Barack Obama must be reelected, because Mitt Romney is a Gordon Gekko who will implement an economic program that will favor the wealthy at the expense of the middle class without generating economic growth..
There is no small irony in the message strategy of both candidates.
Mitt Romney won the 2012 Republican primaries with a virtually totally negative message strategy. He vanquished his major primary opponents, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum by spending massive amounts of money on commercials defining them as unelectable candidates with tainted records. After having succeeded with a negative message in the primaries, Romney must shift gears in order to win the White House with a positive message.
Barack Obama won the White House in 2008 with a largely positive message of hope and change. Four years later, most Americans, while liking him personally, disapprove of his performance in office. They feel that he has failed on the issue of economic recovery, and they disapprove of ObamaCare, the achievement that the incumbent president is most proud of.
Thus, there is no effective positive message that Barack Obama can generate in 2012. He can only be reelected with a negative strategy which, in a nutshell, boils down to class warfare. Thus far, unfortunately for the Republicans, he has been successful.
The Romney campaign can overtake Obama in the toss-up states, however, by accentuating the positive – namely, that Mitt Romney offers hope for economic revival while Obama in this campaign, as contrasted with 2008, offers no hope and no change.
Bottom line: Obama remains the favorite, because of his current Electoral College lead. He is far from closing the deal, however. While Mitt Romney faces an uphill fight to achieve an Electoral College majority, it is one that he can win. If I were a betting man, I would not bet on this election.
Alan J. Steinberg served as Regional Administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush. Region 2 EPA consists of the states of New York and New Jersey, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and eight federally recognized Indian nations. Under former New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman, he served as Executive Director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He currently serves on the political science faculty of Monmouth University.
