Projections for Tuesday Night

A white moon's hot said:
it shouldn't really boggle your mind. I agree it's unlikely that Romney wins PA. I wouldn't bet on it. But it's not like it's california or new york or something like that.

Polls have been increasingly tightening
Some polls show only a 4pt lead. That's close or even inside the margin of error in most cases
Probably a bigger % of undecideds will break for romney
Hurricane Sandy might have been able to affect early voting among urban voters

I also believe the bradley effect may be in play. I think christie posted a recent poll that racial division and polarization is up in recent years. That could amount to a very plausible 1% of the electorate saying they are going to vote obama but vote romney instead. (i am pulling numbers out of my ass but in the past the bradley effect has seen differences as high as 2-3%. In a rustbelt type state like PA I don't find that beyond the realm of possibility

Rove and Co. are spending upwards of 4 million dollars there. We have 5 days left in the campaign now. They wouldn't just be spending that money for shits and giggles. They believe there is a benefit to spending money there. That media buy implies 1 of 2 things:

1) They feel they have a legit shot at winning PA and thus they are spending money there to bring about that outcome
2) They are using it as a bluff to keep obama from spending more money in states like ohio and WI

If it's number 2, then that implies that the Romney campaign feels that they have the luxury of blasting 4 million dollars in PA instead of shoring up and consolidating their message in ohio or WI. What does that tell you?

And for anyone to say it could be a sign of desperation because the Romney camp sees the writing on the wall in ohio, well - the writing would still be more on the wall in PA so I don't see them ducking out of ohio for PA in a hail mary attempt.

In conclusion, I don't think PA is likely, but saying Romney might win PA isn't like the most stupid idea of all time or anything. Besides, there always seems to be some rando state in an election that every thinks is going to go a certain way but it breaks differently.
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Romney is going to PA on Sunday... Get ready for a nail biter in PA
 
Darla said:
Hey if you want to live in a country where the concerns of a bunch of pig farmers are paramount, knock yourself out. I figure if Obama can mange to lose the popular vote and win the EC, after Bush did it in 2000, enough people will be pissed off and it will finally change. You are kidding yourself if you think the Republicans in this country won't go bugfuck nuts over that outcome. The legislation to end the EC will be drawn up the next morning.

It will be so entertaining I just can't envision a better outcome.
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So, we should leave the decisions to a bunch of NE prima donnas who are too fucking ignorant to bury their power lines. A bunch of morons from the NE who whine and cry when a cat 1 hurricane dumps rain on them? Yeah, I don't think we want that bunch deciding our leadership.
 
Dixie said:
They don't. They are just oversampling in the larger metro areas, based on how people voted in 2008. In 2008, we had a completely different dynamic, and the liberal left was energized for Obama, putting PA in the blue. It won't be that way this time, but the pollsters only go by how things were the last time. They don't factor the shifts in the dynamics, and this is why polls are sometimes unreliable indicators. You don't think that polls are ALWAYS right, do you?
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PA hasn't picked a repub for president since 1988. I don't see anything major that would change it this year.
 
christiefan915 said:
538.blogs has Obama at 300 electoral votes but I think that's overly optimistic.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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I would agree... though Silver is a very talented statistician, so he could be correct. I think he makes the best effort to keep his political leanings out of his results. I think if he errs it will be due to over sampling some polls have done of late. That could be enough to throw him off in a couple of close states... especially in CO. VA is the other I think he has wrong... but it is so close at this point, who knows.
 
Superfreak said:
So, we should leave the decisions to a bunch of NE prima donnas who are too fucking ignorant to bury their power lines. A bunch of morons from the NE who whine and cry when a cat 1 hurricane dumps rain on them? Yeah, I don't think we want that bunch deciding our leadership.
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I think you have some balls to make a statement like that considering what has happened to so many lives here this week. YOu really are loathsome.
 
Darla said:
Wow I didn't realize he had him that high. No wonder the Repugs on my twitter feed are looking to string Nate Silver up! I mean they are gunning for him big time. I better read him more often.
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I saw him on either Colbert or Stewart, pretty sharp guy.
 
Superfreak said:
So, we should leave the decisions to a bunch of NE prima donnas who are too fucking ignorant to bury their power lines. A bunch of morons from the NE who whine and cry when a cat 1 hurricane dumps rain on them? Yeah, I don't think we want that bunch deciding our leadership.
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I know you think you are being funny, but it s still too early for jokes like this, this rainstorm has killed people.
 
Rana said:
I know you think you are being funny, but it s still too early for jokes like this, this rainstorm has killed people.
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It's devastated so many lives, if you could be here and watch the local news- there are people trapped in neighborhoods with no foods and the stores aren't open. It is so bad, how anyone can say something like that...people should be looking to donate to help people not say stupid shit on the internet.

Wait till next summer when Colorado burns.
 
This is an expression of the 'greed is good' culture of the right wing. They have little humanity.
 
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