it shouldn't really boggle your mind. I agree it's unlikely that Romney wins PA. I wouldn't bet on it. But it's not like it's california or new york or something like that.
Polls have been increasingly tightening
Some polls show only a 4pt lead. That's close or even inside the margin of error in most cases
Probably a bigger % of undecideds will break for romney
Hurricane Sandy might have been able to affect early voting among urban voters
I also believe the bradley effect may be in play. I think christie posted a recent poll that racial division and polarization is up in recent years. That could amount to a very plausible 1% of the electorate saying they are going to vote obama but vote romney instead. (i am pulling numbers out of my ass but in the past the bradley effect has seen differences as high as 2-3%. In a rustbelt type state like PA I don't find that beyond the realm of possibility
Rove and Co. are spending upwards of 4 million dollars there. We have 5 days left in the campaign now. They wouldn't just be spending that money for shits and giggles. They believe there is a benefit to spending money there. That media buy implies 1 of 2 things:
1) They feel they have a legit shot at winning PA and thus they are spending money there to bring about that outcome
2) They are using it as a bluff to keep obama from spending more money in states like ohio and WI
If it's number 2, then that implies that the Romney campaign feels that they have the luxury of blasting 4 million dollars in PA instead of shoring up and consolidating their message in ohio or WI. What does that tell you?
And for anyone to say it could be a sign of desperation because the Romney camp sees the writing on the wall in ohio, well - the writing would still be more on the wall in PA so I don't see them ducking out of ohio for PA in a hail mary attempt.
In conclusion, I don't think PA is likely, but saying Romney might win PA isn't like the most stupid idea of all time or anything. Besides, there always seems to be some rando state in an election that every thinks is going to go a certain way but it breaks differently.
Romney is going to PA on Sunday... Get ready for a nail biter in PA