Trump Winning

Airstrip One

Airstrip One

Completely Effed
Latest LA Times/Cawacko Poll has Douchebag Donald at +2 over Crooked Hillary.

GAME. SET. MATCH.


VICTORY IS IMMINENT!!!!!1111!!!1
 
Milagro said:
I don't think people are taking enough account of third party candidates, remember Ross Perot!!



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Betting odds have Clinton at 4:1 over Trump. RCP has Clinton at 272 EV...not including toss up States. 538 has Clinton at 85% probability of winning. Trump needs to shit or get off the pot as early voting begins in a couple of weeks in many States.
 
Milagro said:
I don't think people are taking enough account of third party candidates, remember Ross Perot!!



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Perot's impact, and I voted for Perot in 92, is over stated. If the POTUS election was based on the popular vote you'd have a point but it's not. It's an electoral vote system based on first past the post (winner take all) in 48 of the 50 States and the two that are proportional (Nebraska and Maine)account for 6 EV's. Though Perot gathered an impressive amount of votes for a third party candidate not in one single State did he impact the candidate who won that State so from an electoral college stand point his impact was minimal and did not impact the eventual outcome. Clinton would have won even had Perot not ran as a third party candidate.
 
Trump dug himself a hole with those insane post-convention weeks. with media coverage still the same, I doubt he can crawl out of this one.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Betting odds have Clinton at 4:1 over Trump. RCP has Clinton at 272 EV...not including toss up States. 538 has Clinton at 85% probability of winning. Trump needs to shit or get off the pot as early voting begins in a couple of weeks in many States.
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Hard to believe, but in many ways it won't be soon enough!
 
If we are now going to move into a more traditional phase of this election, it will be interesting how Trump does with that. His whole deal has been about not being traditional.

Can you act like a total buffoon for over a year then shape up in the last 80 days to win?
 
Jarod said:
If we are now going to move into a more traditional phase of this election, it will be interesting how Trump does with that. His whole deal has been about not being traditional.

Can you act like a total buffoon for over a year then shape up in the last 80 days to win?
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He has already wrapped up his base, he can do no wrong in their eyes..

Eventhough he is actually a dem means nothing to them..
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Betting odds have Clinton at 4:1 over Trump. RCP has Clinton at 272 EV...not including toss up States. 538 has Clinton at 85% probability of winning. Trump needs to shit or get off the pot as early voting begins in a couple of weeks in many States.
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You could get the same sort of odds for Remain over Brexit, I don't need to tell you what happened there!
 
Jarod said:
If we are now going to move into a more traditional phase of this election, it will be interesting how Trump does with that. His whole deal has been about not being traditional.

Can you act like a total buffoon for over a year then shape up in the last 80 days to win?
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look to see if the polls move back to a more traditional Dem advantage.
by Labor day he would need to be at least competitive in Battleground states. Then he would need something in the debates.
But that is a lot to overcome
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Perot's impact, and I voted for Perot in 92, is over stated. If the POTUS election was based on the popular vote you'd have a point but it's not. It's an electoral vote system based on first past the post (winner take all) in 48 of the 50 States and the two that are proportional (Nebraska and Maine)account for 6 EV's. Though Perot gathered an impressive amount of votes for a third party candidate not in one single State did he impact the candidate who won that State so from an electoral college stand point his impact was minimal and did not impact the eventual outcome. Clinton would have won even had Perot not ran as a third party candidate.
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He withdrew from the race in July allegedly due to homophobic threats made against his daughter. He re-entered the race in October, and still managed to secure almost nineteen percent of the votes, mostly from the southern, Deep South and Bible Belt states. What would have happened if he hadn't dropped out for several months? What about Ralph Nader in 2000, he got less than 3% but still affected the outcome. Now you have two third party candidates, so how will that play?
 
Milagro said:
You could get the same sort of odds for Remain over Brexit, I don't need to tell you what happened there!
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That's a good point. It's not over till the counting is done but...the odds are significantly against him and it looks like a very unpopular Hillary Clinton will win by an electoral landslide.
 
Milagro said:
He withdrew from the race in July allegedly due to homophobic threats made against his daughter. He re-entered the race in October, and still managed to secure almost nineteen percent of the votes, mostly from the southern, Deep South and Bible Belt states. What would have happened if he hadn't dropped out for several months? What about Ralph Nader in 2000, he got less than 3% but still affected the outcome. Now you have two third party candidates, so how will that play?
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I honestly can't say about Nadar...as he may have influenced the vote in Florida. I'd have to look that up...but, as you said, the impact that Perot had was to pull voters away from George H.W. Bush that Bush ended up winning anyway. As for the big question of "Had he not withdrew?". Who knows but the facts are when the politics got dirty...as they always do at that level...Perot caved in like a house of cards.
 
Oops, false alarm! Those idiots at the LA Times can't count, and whittled their poll down to a tie. Meanwhile, NBC has crooked Hillary up eight points.
 
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