Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that

If, if, if, if, if. ANYTHING is statistically possible. Won't happen. TRUMP WAS IN THE BOTTOM 20% of electoral wins in all 58 elections. And got 3,000,000 less votes. He's going to sweep the board next time?

Unless maybe he can get RUSSIA to fix the electoral college.
 
Maybe but the more you go on claiming its a fact, the more I see desperation.
 
Micawber said:
That's because it's a rare occurrence that a Dem doesn't win in a popular landslide as well as electoral, Piggle-sty
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Not quite correct in the last 50 years here are the percentages of electoral votes. *indicates land slide.


9th= G W Bush 50.37% and 53.16%

8th= Carter 55.2%

7th= Nixon 55.95%

6th= Trump 56.5%

5th= Obama 61.71% *
67.84% *
4th= G W Bush 79.18% * 1st win was a squeaker.

3rd= Clinton 68.77% *
70.45% *

2nd= LBJ 90.33% *

1st= Reagan 90.89% *
97.58% *

So in reality Dems only have 1 more landslide than the Republicans. But the Republicans have 1 more president. Thanks for playing.


Edited to correct omission.
 
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Centerleftfl said:
If, if, if, if, if. ANYTHING is statistically possible. Won't happen. TRUMP WAS IN THE BOTTOM 20% of electoral wins in all 58 elections. And got 3,000,000 less votes. He's going to sweep the board next time?

Unless maybe he can get RUSSIA to fix the electoral college.
Click to expand...

Saved!!
 
Eagle-Eye said:
Not quite correct in the last 50 years here are the percentages of electoral votes. *indicates land slide.


9th= G W Bush 50.37% and 53.16%

8th= Carter 55.2%

7th= Nixon 55.95%

6th= Trump 56.5%

5th= Obama 61.71% *

4th= G W Bush 79.18% * 1st win was a squeaker.

3rd= Clinton 68.77% *
70.45% *

2nd= LBJ 90.33% *

1st= Reagan 90.89% *
97.58% *

So in reality Dems only have 1 more landslide than the Republicans. But the Republicans have 1 more president. Thanks for playing.
Click to expand...

Are you daft, extend it back another twenty years and your conclusion is reversed, further back and it is forgotten
 
Moody's is assuming the economic conditions we have now will continue through election day next year. But everyone knows they won't, and that we will likely be in a recession by this time next year. How does that change their models?

Also, with Trump running, all bets are off.
 
archives said:
Are you daft, extend it back another twenty years and your conclusion is reversed, further back and it is forgotten
Click to expand...

FDR was such a successful President that we had to pass a Constitutional Amendment to let lesser belief systems have their shot.
 
archives said:
Are you daft, extend it back another twenty years and your conclusion is reversed, further back and it is forgotten
Click to expand...

Ok sport you asked for it I went back 70 years per your request. Here it is please don't cry on your keyboard.


12th= G W Bush 50.37% and 53.16%

11th= Carter 55.2%

10th= Nixon 55.95%

9th = JFK 56.42

8th= Trump 56.5%

7th = HST 57.06%

6th= Obama 61.71% *
67.84% *[/COLOR]

5th= Clinton 68.77% *
70.45% *

4th = G W Bush 79.18% * 1st win was a squeaker.

3rd= IKE 83.06% *
86.06% *

2nd= LBJ 90.33% *

1st= Reagan 90.89% *
97.58% *



Republicans 10 wins 5 landslides.
Democrats 8 wins 5 landslides.


Sorry sport the facts don't back up your claim.
 
LV426 said:
Moody's is assuming the economic conditions we have now will continue through election day next year. But everyone knows they won't, and that we will likely be in a recession by this time next year. How does that change their models?

Also, with Trump running, all bets are off.
Click to expand...

You'd be surprised at how many people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 are going to vote for him in 2020 at least partially due to how the political left and the media have been treating him (and due to how completely unhinged the political left has become).
 
Grokmaster said:
Moody's has been right EVERY ELECTION SINCE 1980....the ONLY "MISS" THEY HAD , LIKE EVERY OTHER PUNDIT, WAS TRUMP, 2016.


They KNOW BETTER NOW....ENJOY!! :laugh:




Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that



President Donald Trump has a love/hate relationship with polls, surveys and predictions. He loves the ones that paint him in a positive light, and, of course, he hates all those “fake” ones that don’t.

He’s going to absolutely adore this one.

According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close.

In fact, his Electoral College victory could very well be wider than the 304-227 margin he enjoyed over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

Since 1980, Moody’s has managed to nail the outcome every time but once — like many, it didn’t see Trump coming.

“In our post-mortem of the 2016 presidential election model,” the report said, “we determined that unexpected turnout patterns were one of the factors that contributed to the model’s first incorrect election prediction.” Here’s Moody’s track record, including a 2016 adjustment for the turnout variable:


MW-HT345_trump_20191015131101_NS.png





Moody’s uses three models to come up with its forecast. In each case, Trump gets at least 289 Electoral College votes.

The “pocketbook” measure, which focus on how people feel about their money situation, is where Trump shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said.

The stock-market model gives him the slightest edge of 289-249, as investors continue to navigate a volatile investing landscape. Then there’s the unemployment model, which leans heavily in his favor at 332-206.


https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/50180bc8-1303-3cb6-99e9-2cfa7642bb28/trump-in-a-landslide?-this.html
Click to expand...

Two things, Moody's, understandably, weighs economics heavily, but Americans today don't necessarily see today's economy happening because of Trump as they do in spite of Trump, no sitting President with a healthy economy had favorability numbers as low as Trump has now

Secondly, looking at the elections, the vast majority of all polls called the same results, the favorite won in nearly all of them, except 2016, Moody's included
 
LV426 said:
Moody's is assuming the economic conditions we have now will continue through election day next year. But everyone knows they won't, and that we will likely be in a recession by this time next year. How does that change their models?

Also, with Trump running, all bets are off.
Click to expand...

They also know that the House Politburo's SHAM "INQUIRY"...will blow up in their faces, as have all their other seditious conspiracy....
 
archives said:
Two things, Moody's, understandably, weighs economics heavily, but Americans today don't necessarily see today's economy happening because of Trump as they do in spite of Trump, no sitting President with a healthy economy had favorability numbers as low as Trump has now

Secondly, looking at the elections, the vast majority of all polls called the same results, the favorite won in nearly all of them, except 2016, Moody's included
Click to expand...



Keep whistling past the graveyard....
 
Trump 2020 is a given, game set match.

If I were a Democrat God forbid

I'd start actually trying to do something positive so that I had a prayer in beating Ivanka in 2024
 
Trump inherited a vibrant and growing economy. He took credit for that from election day on. He is eroding it and has done damage due to his ignorance (like tariffs). I am sure the rightys will blame anyone but Daffy when it continues to crumble.
Trump also said the debt was easy to deal with and he would wipe it out. How's that working? It is like everything else, Trump does not have a clue.
 
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