My election prediction!

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.
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the question isn't whether Biden will step on his dick in the debates.......the question is how many times will Biden step on his dick in the debates....
 
Only one point so far, there might be riots and voters might blame Biden. That’s all you guys got?

I’m growing more confident...
 
This election is Biden's to lose! I hope he is boning up for the debate too?!!
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Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
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If the election were held today, I might agree with your prediction, however, it isn't, and even a month can be an eternity in politics

Regardless of the polls, Trump has a lot of advantages, he is the incumbent, he is willing to do anything to win including enlisting elements of the Federal Gov't, legal or illegal, to aid him, which we have seen has already starting with Barr and Johnson, and, he surely has the aid of foreign entities, and why not, they know they won't be penalized but even defending by a major political party and news network

All of that becomes important cause I don't think Trump is anticipating winning the election, rather the post election, if mail in voting prevents a declared winner that night, which is a strong possibility, Trump is already set to litigate the hell of what follows planning that eventually it reaches the Supreme Court and Bret and Neil deliver as scripted

Too many unknown variables
 
archives said:
If the election were held today, I might agree with your prediction, however, it isn't, and even a month can be an eternity in politics

Regardless of the polls, Trump has a lot of advantages, he is the incumbent, he is willing to do anything to win including enlisting elements of the Federal Gov't, legal or illegal, to aid him, which we have seen has already starting with Barr and Johnson, and, he surely has the aid of foreign entities, and why not, they know they won't be penalized but even defending by a major political party and news network

All of that becomes important cause I don't think Trump is anticipating winning the election, rather the post election, if mail in voting prevents a declared winner that night, which is a strong possibility, Trump is already set to litigate the hell of what follows planning that eventually it reaches the Supreme Court and Bret and Neil deliver as scripted

Too many unknown variables
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These are valid points but if Biden wins by 8 points I don’t think Trump can overcome that.
 
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