My election prediction!

Jarod said:
Wow, not a one of em is willing to try to argue that this is wrong.
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You used yourself as a source then want people to tell you how wrong that is? We know why you will vote for Biden. He's an Obama nl just like you and he picked a wannabe black whore.
 
Frank Apisa said:
I hope you are correct, Jarod.

But I am not making any predictions, because NOTHING would surprise me at this point.

I will say this, though: Trump would happily tear down the United States if he loses. Make no mistake about it...he would leave destruction in his wake as he leaves.
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You're so fucking stupid you think burn loot and murder is a unifying force. You're too stupid to even engage
 
Yakuda said:
You're so fucking stupid you think burn loot and murder is a unifying force. You're too stupid to even engage
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Yet here you are...engaging with me.

Yeah, you are a genius with a post like that one.

Fucking moron!

I love to engage with morons. They are fun to set in motion. They provide laughs.
 
Frank Apisa said:
Yet here you are...engaging with me.

Yeah, you are a genius with a post like that one.

Fucking moron!

I love to engage with morons. They are fun to set in motion. They provide laughs.
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So you DO think Burn Loot Murder is a unifying force. My apologies for calling you a moron. That's offensive to morons. You're a cockroach.
 
ExpressLane said:
The coming hissy fit riots over the SCOTUS will turn many undecided and on the fence voters it will be a loser for the Dems and will gain them nothing.
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Can't wait to see what Feinstein pulls this time. If anything like Kav she'll find some old h.s. classmate of the nominee claiming she was a big slut.
 
anonymoose said:
Can't wait to see what Feinstein pulls this time. If anything like Kav she'll find some old h.s. classmate of the nominee claiming she was a big slut.
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Feinstein bullying and threatening Murkowski, has her trapped and backed up against the wall. Imagine if a man did this to a woman. :palm:

DoC_LeLV4AAGHGl.jpg
 
Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
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This won't change your mind and it is foolish to even try to pass off like you can have your mind changed. But, I will comment on your analysis. It is sophomoric and lacking in any political sophistication.

It isn't even a prediction. You are merely parroting polls (anyone can do that) and you are saying you are listening to others "you respect". So essentially, you aren't able to form your own thought process. You have provided yourself an out because you will say "well I guess the polls were wrong" therefore you weren't wrong.

If this is the type of sophisticated legal thinking one can expect in one of your legal briefs, I feel very sorry for your clients that you gouge for 40%
 
Joe Hiden said:
This won't change your mind and it is foolish to even try to pass off like you can have your mind changed. But, I will comment on your analysis. It is sophomoric and lacking in any political sophistication.

It isn't even a prediction. You are merely parroting polls (anyone can do that) and you are saying you are listening to others "you respect". So essentially, you aren't able to form your own thought process. You have provided yourself an out because you will say "well I guess the polls were wrong" therefore you weren't wrong.

If this is the type of sophisticated legal thinking one can expect in one of your legal briefs, I feel very sorry for your clients that you gouge for 40%
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Predicting election results is not something I go in for ever, particularly in a country as weird as the United States, but what method other than public opinion polls do you favour - divine revelation perhaps? Republicans do seem like a revival of flat-earthers, witch-hunters with a very strong tang of Hitlerite. Funny lot!
 
Hello Jarod,

Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
Click to expand...

I hope you're right.

It certainly looks that way.

 
Hello archives,

archives said:
If the election were held today, I might agree with your prediction, however, it isn't, and even a month can be an eternity in politics
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America has seen a string of crises in 2020 and nothing has budged the needle. Biden is leading by about the same amount he was before the impeachment nonconviction farce.

Impeachment, pandemic, Wall Street crash, Racial tensions, 200K deaths, rushed SCOTUS replacement, nothing moves the needle. The votes are locked in.
 
Penderyn said:
Predicting election results is not something I go in for ever, particularly in a country as weird as the United States, but what method other than public opinion polls do you favour - divine revelation perhaps? Republicans do seem like a revival of flat-earthers, witch-hunters with a very strong tang of Hitlerite. Funny lot!
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Godwin's Law ffs, it's never ending with the Welsh Windbag.
 
Yakuda said:
So you DO think Burn Loot Murder is a unifying force. My apologies for calling you a moron. That's offensive to morons. You're a cockroach.
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Poor, poor Yakuda. Feeling so bad. Lashing out like a little baby.

Here, Yakuda...a picture for you to look at. Maybe after a few seconds you will feel better:



e89aae77cead87e332063ce9a9140d0e.jpg
 
I'm not making any predictions but from my observations it appears the stage is set for a Biden landslide.

Well respected political analyst Cook Political Report:

Biden is leading in the largest Toss Up state, Florida.

Biden 290, Trump 187, Toss Up 61.

If things lean toward Biden, it could be 290 + 61 = 351.

Result could be Biden 351, Trump 187.

Landslide.
 
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