My election prediction!

Seven days since I updated and seven days from today will be election day.

The slip I saw in Pennsylvania seems to have stopped and maybe even moved a bit back toward Biden. There will be a lot of polling data released this week and with it likely a lot of uncertainty. IT will be hard to tell if any of the movement will be a trend or a blip as we move toward next Tuesday but we will see.

Nothing much has changed my perspective since last weeks update. There is a path for victory for Trump* and it COULD happen.

Many have asked why I think this years polling data will be more accurate than last years... here are some of my thoughts. 1) We have an incumbent this year, and an historically unpopular one, while his base is very vocal and active they are smaller in numbers than most incumbent Presidents have enjoyed, because of that I think much shift at the end is less likely. 2) The polling data is showing MUCH less undecided voters, for that reason there is much less likelihood of later deciders breaking one way or the other enough to make a significant difference. 3) The polls have been incredibly consistent, in 2016 the polls were taking wild shifts on a weekly basis showing either candidate up and down by several points weekly, this year there has been comparably little movement.

My prediction stands, Biden will most likely win. Trump has a small chance but it would require a larger polling error than there was in 2016.

Show me where I am wrong, if you can...
 
LV426 said:
I think Biden will win the popular vote by at least 5 million.

I think the Democrats will flip the seats they need to take the Senate back.

I think the Democrats will expand their House majority by about 10 seats.

I think Biden surprises with a win in Georgia, but I think he loses Texas by less than 2%.

On a state level, I think if Biden wins Texas, the state legislature will flip to blue.

I think there's going to be several state houses that change hands.

This SCOTUS fight is what motivated Democrats in 2018...no reason to believe they wouldn't repeat that performance in 2020.
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Certantly seems more likely now... You have good vision.
 
LV426 said:
I think Biden will win the popular vote by at least 5 million.

I think the Democrats will flip the seats they need to take the Senate back.

I think the Democrats will expand their House majority by about 10 seats.

I think Biden surprises with a win in Georgia, but I think he loses Texas by less than 2%.

On a state level, I think if Biden wins Texas, the state legislature will flip to blue.

I think there's going to be several state houses that change hands.

This SCOTUS fight is what motivated Democrats in 2018...no reason to believe they wouldn't repeat that performance in 2020.
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All reasonable predictions. Even if not completely accurate, it will be close.

Disagreed on SCOTUS. SCOTUS was a motivator, but I think the biggest motivator was Trump's gross mishandling of the COVID pandemic. Not just completely FUBAR'd it but he's continuing to FUBAR it all the way to Election Day.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
All reasonable predictions. Even if not completely accurate, it will be close.

Disagreed on SCOTUS. SCOTUS was a motivator, but I think the biggest motivator was Trump's gross mishandling of the COVID pandemic. Not just completely FUBAR'd it but he's continuing to FUBAR it all the way to Election Day.
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Agree on COVID being the main thing that kills Trump. The SCOTUS fight certainly motivated Democrats in 2018, and it seems to have done the same this year. I'd be interested to see the early voting totals the day after Amy Covid Barret was sworn in.
 
LV426 said:
Agree on COVID being the main thing that kills Trump. The SCOTUS fight certainly motivated Democrats in 2018, and it seems to have done the same this year. I'd be interested to see the early voting totals the day after Amy Covid Barret was sworn in.
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We can debate forever what this election would have looked like without Covid, but I would argue Trump* was in trouble before Covid.
 
Jarod said:
We can debate forever what this election would have looked like without Covid, but I would argue Trump* was in trouble before Covid.
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Yep. We entered a recession before COVID lockdowns, all thanks to the tax cut.

That tax cut killed 300,000 manufacturing jobs in 2019 too, and the whole manufacturing sector was in a recession for all of 2019. Again, thanks to the tax cut.

Never let up on the fact that the tax cut plunged our economy into a recession before COVID got its turn.
 
LV426 said:
Yep. We entered a recession before COVID lockdowns, all thanks to the tax cut.

That tax cut killed 300,000 manufacturing jobs in 2019 too, and the whole manufacturing sector was in a recession for all of 2019. Again, thanks to the tax cut.

Never let up on the fact that the tax cut plunged our economy into a recession before COVID got its turn.
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They will forever blame Covid, but you are correct. The Recession started before COVID hit.
 
Jarod said:
They will forever blame Covid, but you are correct. The Recession started before COVID hit.
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And when they blame COVID, we can just say:

"Well, why didn't you take it seriously from the start? Why did you call it a hoax? Why did you pretend it didn't exist? Why did you say it's no worse than the flu? Why were you making stock trades after classified briefings?"

Those questions were enough to frighten David Purdue so much that he literally has to avoid being on the same stage with the guy who called him out.
 
Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
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Trump 290+ EV
 
LV426 said:
Agree on COVID being the main thing that kills Trump. The SCOTUS fight certainly motivated Democrats in 2018, and it seems to have done the same this year. I'd be interested to see the early voting totals the day after Amy Covid Barret was sworn in.
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It's might be a factor for some, but since she gave such a great confirmation, any who watched and had doubts were probably persuaded she wasn't the Evil Catholic Anti-Abortionist some depicted her to be.

4ieszn.jpg
 
Dutch Uncle said:
It's might be a factor for some, but since she gave such a great confirmation, any who watched and had doubts were probably persuaded she wasn't the Evil Catholic Anti-Abortionist some depicted her to be.
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That's only because she didn't truthfully respond to anything...but her hearing was the same charade as Kavanaugh's, only with less screaming and crying.
 
The Democrats made a deal, They gave up on Justice Cooney (they were likely to lose anyway) to help their election chances.

Americans see what the Republicans did relating to Garland as fundamentally unfair, it will help.

Cooney will likely not be as much of a nazi as predicted. Many Conservatives turn moderate once appointed, its a game they play to try to get the lifetime appointment.
 
LV426 said:
That's only because she didn't truthfully respond to anything...but her hearing was the same charade as Kavanaugh's, only with less screaming and crying.
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Anyone who thinks Judge Amy perjured herself the entire time is either a wackadoodle or a liar.

Kavanaugh, I have no doubt, did perjure himself, but only about his definitions of HS school terms and his virginity, not the entire testimony.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
Anyone who thinks Judge Amy perjured herself the entire time is either a wackadoodle or a liar.

Kavanaugh, I have no doubt, did perjure himself, but only about his definitions of HS school terms and his virginity, not the entire testimony.
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Kavanaugh screamed more about his love of alcohol than his love for his wife.

I bet he was drunk during that testimony.

If I was one of the Senators questioning him, I'd drill down into this passion for alcohol he has.

Kavanaugh shouldn't be on SCOTUS, he should be at the Betty Ford Clinic.

Also, who paid off all his debt? He didn't.
 
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