My election prediction!

Jarod said:
I do not consider myself very much of a political prognosticator, I have been wrong as much as I am correct. I was wrong in 2016 and that has made me more careful.

However, I have been studying this years election and where we are and I have been asked to offer a prediction..... Until now I have held off because I did not think it was reasonable to make a prediction because it has been nothing but a shot in the dark, but I think I am ready to say that we have enough evidence to make a guess with a reasonable degree of likelihood that will be correct.

The polling this year is very unusually consistent, and that makes it a lot different than in 2016. Most Americans have made their mind up about Donald Trump and more recently seem to have rejected the idea that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia. Biden, in the eyes of many is a reasonable alternative.

With a majority of voters seeming to have decided that Trump is not a good choice and that Biden is an acceptable one, and Biden polling over 50% in enough states to put his electoral vote count above 270 (This occured last week.) I think my prediction is solid. Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin seem to have come safely into the Biden collum. Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are all three tossups, with Pennsylvania leaning toward Biden. Since both candidates are already very well known by the voters. I am ready to say that unless something unforeseen occurs that changes the dynamic of this race (it might happen) Joe Biden and Kamilla Harris will be elected President and Vice President of the United States of America in 43 days.

There are still the debates, and maybe Biden will come out and step on his dick, or maybe Trump* has a huge October surprise that will come out, but like I said, if the fundamentals do not change Biden wins.

I was going to post this over the weekend, but decided to wait and consider if I felt the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg would affect the outcome. I have thought about it, and read some thoughts of experts and talked to people I respect and I believe it will not fundamentally change the outcome, and if it does... it has just as much a chance of helping Biden as it does of helping Trump*.

I am happy to discuss...

Change my mind?!?!?!?
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Fake news. The polls are shit and so are you.
 
They're having a Trump rally in Israel, a convoy of cars and people calling Trump a hero. All you traitor bastards are going down.
 
Jarod said:
Just looked at it.... two had Trump* winning.
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Not ones with election day results. Basically, all the polls published on or the day before election day had Hillary winning. You had to go back about a week to find one from a college that had trump up by 1. Also, each "swing state" also had Hillary winning.

None of the polls were accurate. Only Rasmussen had an accurate poll on that day, and they were not on that list of polls. 538 doesn't like them.
 
Damocles said:
Somebody was trying to say somebody was "dumb" for pointing out the polls had Hillary winning.
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Not me, I said someone was dumb saying EVERY poll predicted a LANDSLIDE. (Do you have a reading comprehension problem?)

Note that the polls you posted were notional polls and many were within the MOE thus correct for what they measured.
 
Jarod said:
Election day, one week after my last update. Some polls show Pennsylvania getting tighter, but they are not live caller polls and some are Republican funded. I would guess Pennsylvania is still in Biden's camp considering how much early voting took place but we will see.


Trump still has a chance to win the election, but I would much rather be in Biden's shoes right now. Its very likely we will not know the results of Pennsylvania tonight or even tomorrow, but we might get a good idea, I expect Trump* to be strong in the first few waives because I think they will come from today's voting and the early numbers will come from the smaller areas. As the larger areas filter in and the early voting numbers start to come in, I suspect Biden will improve. We will see.

What we will likely know early is Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, if any one of those go for Biden, I think its game over for Trump*.

We will see, I give Trump a 15% chance, which is high, lots of things that have a 15% chance do happen. 15% is worse than the 30% Nate Silver gave Trump last time, and better than what Nate Silver is giving him today.

Nate Silver is better at this than me.
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Nothing wrong in my post. I am pleased with my prediction. Maybe I gave Trump* too small of a chance, but 15% is reasonable. Looks to me like Biden won, but we will have to wait a day or two it seems.
 
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