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A Realist
New poll is bad, bad news for Obama, Democrats
By: Byron York
Chief Political Correspondent
07/30/09 5:32 AM EDT
The results of the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll are a major warning sign for Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress. On some key issues, the gains that Democrats had made on Republicans in the last couple of years have disappeared, and the GOP has begun to reassert itself. In other policy areas, traditional Democratic leads are diminishing.
The results are found in the answers to the Journal's questions about whether respondents believe the Democratic or Republican party would do a better job of handling a particular issue. In the past, Democrats have usually led in areas like health care and education, while Republicans have led in issues like national security and taxes.
During the Bush administration, Democrats made huge gains in some important Republican areas. For example, on the question of which party would do a better job in handling the federal budget deficit, Democrats held a 19-point advantage in a November 2005 Journal poll, a 25-point advantage in July 2007, and a 22-point advantage in January 2008.
Now all that has changed. In the new poll, the results have completely turned around, and Republicans hold a six-point advantage. On the related issue of controlling government spending, in July 2007, Democrats held a 16-point advantage. In the new poll, Republicans hold a nine-point lead.
Also in the Bush years, Democrats erased the Republican advantage on the issue of taxes. In November 2005, Democrats held a 10-point advantage over Republicans on the tax issue. That lead diminished over the next few years, but Democrats still held a five-point advantage in January 2008. In the new poll, Republicans have a seven-point advantage.
In other key areas, the Democratic lead over Republicans has shrunk considerably. In January 2008, Democrats held an 18-point lead on the issue of which party would better deal with the economy. Now, the Democratic lead is six points. In January 2008, Democrats held a 28-point lead on the issue of energy. Now, that lead is 12 points. In January 2008, Democrats held a 45-point lead on the issue of global warming. Now, that lead is 27 points.
Perhaps most ominous news for Democrats at the moment is the issue of health care. In January 2008, the party had a 36-point lead on the issue. Now, it's 17 points.
The poll has other bad news for Democrats and President Obama. The percentage of people who believe the country is on the wrong track has risen six points since April. The percentage of people who approve of the way Obama is handling the economy has dipped below 50 percent for the first time. The percentage of people who approve of his handling of the health care issue is 41 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. The percentage of people who have a positive opinion of Obama is down nine points since April. The percentage of people who say the president has strong leadership qualities, can be trusted to keep his word, will work with people of different viewpoints, is likable -- all those numbers are down.
In sum, the poll results are bad news across the board for the president and his party. That doesn't mean equally good news for Republicans; the people polled are still not ready to say they would rather have the GOP in charge. But all indications are that there is trouble ahead for Democrats.
-Byron York
By: Byron York
Chief Political Correspondent
07/30/09 5:32 AM EDT
The results of the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll are a major warning sign for Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress. On some key issues, the gains that Democrats had made on Republicans in the last couple of years have disappeared, and the GOP has begun to reassert itself. In other policy areas, traditional Democratic leads are diminishing.
The results are found in the answers to the Journal's questions about whether respondents believe the Democratic or Republican party would do a better job of handling a particular issue. In the past, Democrats have usually led in areas like health care and education, while Republicans have led in issues like national security and taxes.
During the Bush administration, Democrats made huge gains in some important Republican areas. For example, on the question of which party would do a better job in handling the federal budget deficit, Democrats held a 19-point advantage in a November 2005 Journal poll, a 25-point advantage in July 2007, and a 22-point advantage in January 2008.
Now all that has changed. In the new poll, the results have completely turned around, and Republicans hold a six-point advantage. On the related issue of controlling government spending, in July 2007, Democrats held a 16-point advantage. In the new poll, Republicans hold a nine-point lead.
Also in the Bush years, Democrats erased the Republican advantage on the issue of taxes. In November 2005, Democrats held a 10-point advantage over Republicans on the tax issue. That lead diminished over the next few years, but Democrats still held a five-point advantage in January 2008. In the new poll, Republicans have a seven-point advantage.
In other key areas, the Democratic lead over Republicans has shrunk considerably. In January 2008, Democrats held an 18-point lead on the issue of which party would better deal with the economy. Now, the Democratic lead is six points. In January 2008, Democrats held a 28-point lead on the issue of energy. Now, that lead is 12 points. In January 2008, Democrats held a 45-point lead on the issue of global warming. Now, that lead is 27 points.
Perhaps most ominous news for Democrats at the moment is the issue of health care. In January 2008, the party had a 36-point lead on the issue. Now, it's 17 points.
The poll has other bad news for Democrats and President Obama. The percentage of people who believe the country is on the wrong track has risen six points since April. The percentage of people who approve of the way Obama is handling the economy has dipped below 50 percent for the first time. The percentage of people who approve of his handling of the health care issue is 41 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. The percentage of people who have a positive opinion of Obama is down nine points since April. The percentage of people who say the president has strong leadership qualities, can be trusted to keep his word, will work with people of different viewpoints, is likable -- all those numbers are down.
In sum, the poll results are bad news across the board for the president and his party. That doesn't mean equally good news for Republicans; the people polled are still not ready to say they would rather have the GOP in charge. But all indications are that there is trouble ahead for Democrats.
-Byron York
