Should Biden run again?

Jarod said:
My answer is no.


He was the best choice to help return to less hostility after the Trump Administration, and he provided a good moderate four year transition, but it’s time for a new generation to take over and lead us into this new age.

He knows how to beat Trump, but it’s very unlikely Trump will be the Republican nominee.

Biden comes from a different age, he is too old. I want a Democrat who is young and energetic with new fresh ideas. Someone more like Obama but for the new generation.

Biden was elected by the “not Trump” constituency, he does not seem to have a natural constituency other than not being Trump. Now it seems Trump is out… so let’s move on to someone who can put it together based on a new ideology of fresh ideas of their own… while using the less bombastic style of Biden.


I’m ready to move to a younger candidate.
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You voted for Biden knowing he was an idiot but you had a visceral hate for Trump so Biden got your vote. Take a look around. How'd that work out?
 
cawacko said:
Strong economic growth? We just had negative GDP growth in the 1st qtr, the stock market almost hit bear market territory and we have the highest inflation in 40 years. Those conditions are not usually correlated with strong growth.

The job market has been very good but that’s not going to continue at near the same pace. The Fed increasing rates as they are is going to slow the economy by design along with quantitative tightening we are going to see companies institute hiring freezes, reduce hours and then lay folks off. We’re already seeing it happening in the tech world.

And there is lots of talk about falling into recession. The Fed is of course trying to engineer a soft landing but that is easier said than done. Inflation is brutal and Powell has indicated he will do what he can to go after it. He’s no Paul Volker but he seems like he’s determined.

These are just economic realities.
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That’s just 1 qtr Wacko. His average over the last 6 qtrs is above the average of the previous two Presidential terms and I’m talking about right now. If we have another qtr of the same then we will have entered a recession. If that lasts long enough that his average real economic growth over his full term is less than his predecessors than he takes the hit on long term economic growth. If we are in a recession during the next election year then Biden takes the short term economic hit. If both happen he loses the economics metrics. If the real economic growth does average better in his first term vs the last two Presidential terms and there isn’t a recession during the election year Biden will win the economic metrics.

If Biden loses the midterm election metrics and the long and short term economic metrics but wins the rest of the key metrics the odds of his winning are very good.

But that’s again predicting based on how the key metrics currently stand. We won’t know how all the key metrics will shake out for at least two years but as of right now the key metrics favor Biden.

That hasn’t happened yet and we won’t know for sure what those metrics will be until we’ll into the election year.

So what I’m saying is that it’s to soon to make predictions on who will win the next election and that currently the key metrics favor Biden and if the election were held now they indicate he would win.

I’m not going to make an actual prediction myself until at least two more years when we know more about how all the key metrics work out.

So with this being the case how would Biden not running benefit Democrats and with the metrics currently favoring him why, barring health reasons why wouldn’t he run again unless things change significantly from where they currently are?
 
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Mott the Hoople said:
That’s just 1 qtr Wacko. His average over the last 6 qtrs is above the average of the previous two Presidential terms and I’m talking about right now. If we have another qtr of the same then we will have entered a recession. If that lasts long enough that his average real economic growth over his full term is less than his predecessors than he takes the hit on long term economic growth. If we are in a recession during the next election year then Biden takes the short term economic hit. If both happen he loses the economics metrics. If the real economic growth does average better in his first term vs the last two Presidential terms and there isn’t a recession during the election year Biden will win the economic metrics.

If Biden loses the midterm election metrics and the long and short term economic metrics but wins the rest of the key metrics the odds of his winning are very good.

But that’s again predicting based on how the key metrics currently stand. We won’t know how all the key metrics will shake out for at least two years but as of right now the key metrics favor Biden.

That hasn’t happened yet and we won’t know for sure what those metrics will be until we’ll into the election year.

So what I’m saying is that it’s to soon to make predictions on who will win the next election and that currently the key metrics favor Biden and if the election were held now they indicate he would win.

I’m not going to make an actual prediction myself until at least two more years when we know more about how all the key metrics work out.

So with this being the case how would Biden not running benefit Democrats and with the metrics currently favoring him why, barring health reasons why wouldn’t he run again unless things change significantly from where they currently are?
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Let's be real though, when people vote based on economics they aren't thinking to themselves "the current President has X GDP growth and the two predecessors had Y and Z GDP growth." They're thinking about what's happening right now.

And the discussion is about whether Biden will run again. That will likely be determined in 2023 because if he doesn't then you gotta have primaries. I'm not making any predictions here as I have no clue what will happen but if a discussion is already being had about will he run again, and we've yet to hit a recession, that isn't the best sign if one does come. (Edit: based on economic matrix)
 
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Mott the Hoople said:
That’s just 1 qtr Wacko. His average over the last 6 qtrs is above the average of the previous two Presidential terms and I’m talking about right now. If we have another qtr of the same then we will have entered a recession. If that lasts long enough that his average real economic growth over his full term is less than his predecessors than he takes the hit on long term economic growth. If we are in a recession during the next election year then Biden takes the short term economic hit. If both happen he loses the economics metrics. If the real economic growth does average better in his first term vs the last two Presidential terms and there isn’t a recession during the election year Biden will win the economic metrics.

If Biden loses the midterm election metrics and the long and short term economic metrics but wins the rest of the key metrics the odds of his winning are very good.

But that’s again predicting based on how the key metrics currently stand. We won’t know how all the key metrics will shake out for at least two years but as of right now the key metrics favor Biden.

That hasn’t happened yet and we won’t know for sure what those metrics will be until we’ll into the election year.

So what I’m saying is that it’s to soon to make predictions on who will win the next election and that currently the key metrics favor Biden and if the election were held now they indicate he would win.

I’m not going to make an actual prediction myself until at least two more years when we know more about how all the key metrics work out.

So with this being the case how would Biden not running benefit Democrats and with the metrics currently favoring him why, barring health reasons why wouldn’t he run again unless things change significantly from where they currently are?
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that's cuz previous lockdown.

you're an idiot.
 
cawacko said:
Let's be real though, when people vote based on economics they aren't thinking to themselves "the current President has X GDP growth and the two predecessors had Y and Z GDP growth." They're thinking about what's happening right now.

And the discussion is about whether Biden will run again. That will likely be determined in 2023 because if he doesn't then you gotta have primaries. I'm not making any predictions here as I have no clue what will happen but if a discussion is already being had about will he run again, and we've yet to hit a recession, that isn't the best sign if one does come. (Edit: based on economic matrix)
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asking dems to be real is hate speech.
 
BidenPresident said:
Happening now.
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what's happening?

rerun.jpg
 
cawacko said:
I agree about the power of incumbency but at the same time, since Carter, you have Regan, Clinton, Bush and Obama who won re-election and Carter, Bush Sr and Trump who lost re-election. A 4-3 record. That’s still in the positive but far from fait accompli.
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Well again incumbency is just one measure. If Biden doesn’t run then not only do the democrats lose that metric but they would lose one other and possibly a second metric. Those being a primary challenge and possibly a third party candidate. So Democrats would be better off, as things currently stand, with Biden running.
 
Jarod said:
My answer is no.


He was the best choice to help return to less hostility after the Trump Administration, and he provided a good moderate four year transition, but it’s time for a new generation to take over and lead us into this new age.

He knows how to beat Trump, but it’s very unlikely Trump will be the Republican nominee.

Biden comes from a different age, he is too old. I want a Democrat who is young and energetic with new fresh ideas. Someone more like Obama but for the new generation.

Biden was elected by the “not Trump” constituency, he does not seem to have a natural constituency other than not being Trump. Now it seems Trump is out… so let’s move on to someone who can put it together based on a new ideology of fresh ideas of their own… while using the less bombastic style of Biden.


I’m ready to move to a younger candidate.
Click to expand...

Ideally, Biden pretends he's planning to run again until late 2023, so he keeps that Republican slime machine focused on him, and then he gracefully steps aside. It takes a while for the right-winger slime machine to build up that knee-jerk negative response against a Democratic candidate, so the longer we can delay that, the better. Think of 2008, as an example. The GOP spent all of 2007 and the first part of 2008 trashing Hillary Clinton, and even building up Obama with the idea that Clinton would win the nomination and then the ticket would be divided by resentful Obama backers. But then Obama won the nomination and there wasn't really enough time for the GOP to beat him down before the election the way they had with Clinton. I think it's entirely possible that if Obama had been the front-runner since 2007, by November of '08 the GOP would have had enough time to poison the public's mind against him through a solid year of disinformation.
 
Primavera said:
Mott, the likelihood is there is going to be the mother of all recessions. I sincerely hope not but it's looking more and more likely all the time.
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It’s certainly a possibility but as it currently stands that’s not the case. If Biden, two years from now, loses the long term and short term economic metrics it would certainly hurt his chances but by themselves would not be determinative of the outcome.

Which brings me back to the original question. As it currently stands, with the metrics favoring Biden and barring a health issue why would he decide not to run at this time? He wouldn’t and until things do get a lot worse for him he probably will run.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
It’s certainly a possibility but as it currently stands that’s not the case. If Biden, two years from now, loses the long term and short term economic metrics it would certainly hurt his chances but by themselves would not be determinative of the outcome.

Which brings me back to the original question. As it currently stands, with the metrics favoring Biden and barring a health issue why would he decide not to run at this time? He wouldn’t and until things do get a lot worse for him he probably will run.
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I feel fairly certain he will run again, unless there is a serious and public health issue.
 
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