Wheels coming off as predicted
- Thread starter Celticguy
- Start date
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-prices-881c8411bad80180f025e138f0bd444e
ok so that "transitory" nonsense is shot all to hell and you cant blame everything on oil.
the dominoes keep falling as predicted and Brandon keeps making things worse.
And as if thats not enough, winter is coming with no energy for heating, a collapsed housing sector, layoffs flying down the rails at warp speed and no relief in sight.
Of course the left clings to abortion as their lifeline but people wont be able to afford those anymore so they will have to just be less hedonistic. That would be great news for the STD challenged populations.
ok so that "transitory" nonsense is shot all to hell and you cant blame everything on oil.
the dominoes keep falling as predicted and Brandon keeps making things worse.
And as if thats not enough, winter is coming with no energy for heating, a collapsed housing sector, layoffs flying down the rails at warp speed and no relief in sight.
Of course the left clings to abortion as their lifeline but people wont be able to afford those anymore so they will have to just be less hedonistic. That would be great news for the STD challenged populations.
Corporate profits up 70%!
Whoa there!!!
The current inflation rate is bad.
But it is MILES from 'record high' territory.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/
And this is because the govt alters the formula used to calculate it from time to time. Using the formula in effect when JImmy Carter went for the record...
may not be a record but its close. And so close the Fed will likely go for a full point in a couple weeks rather than the .75. Of course its still not NEARLY enough, they should go 2pts to try and shorten the pain.
Shadowstats is not the measure. The fact is that prices have dropped for the last two months according to the OFFICIAL measure of inflation, just not as fast as people would like. That is largely due to housing costs at this point.
Your prediction of gloom and doom continues to be WAYYYYYY premature.
Of course the government alters the measure (actually the basket of goods) from time to time because, you know, the cost of oats for your horse shouldn't really be included should it?
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Some are, but not any in my portfolio. LOL
Over the past 18 months I'm down 7%. During the Great Recession I was working so I doubled down on savings. Now, I'm just trying not to touch it and ride it out for another year or two.
Best strategy. The market will go up over time. History. I'm almost exclusively income generating, and my losses this year haven't really been that bad. As long as the income continues, I care less about stock prices. If you can read a balance sheet you'll do just fine in the long haul.
I have been aware of John Williams for many years.
And, though I think he makes some, good points.
And I despise the BLS...generally.
I am not ready to just toss out the BLS stats completely.
Anyway, the official record is over 23.7% in June, 1920.
Finally, I would personally blame Nixon for going off the gold standard far, FAR more than Carter for the late 70's/early 80's inflation.
Though the latter has to share some of the blame.
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Agreed. All the current problems are directly related to the COVID pandemic and Putin's War. COVID is winding down well in the US, but not globally. War is always expensive and destructive. It's going to cost us regardless if we participate in it or not.
Like the Great Recession, our economy will slowly work out of it. No need to panic.
FWIW, anyone who thinks a President can just wave a wand and fix the economy is an idiot.
Yep. Economics isn't political. It's market forces. The Fed can have some impact, but we've seen over the last 20 or so years that large swings in interest rates don't have the same effect that they used to. Supply chains are freeing up, the pent up demand from the pandemic has mostly played out. You are still seeing real estate investors trying to recoup costs by charging incredibly high rents, and that is the biggest driver in keeping the overall CPI measure as high as it is.
My prediction on the market.... next week the indexes will be up 5%. Book it!
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Agreed to an extent. Are you denying that Putin's war in Ukraine is both military and political but it has a huge impact on the global economy, regardless of what the US does?
I support Ukraine, but if the US allowed it to fall to Putin, what would that have on the long term economy?
How about the week after that? LOL
Yes, it rises and falls. IIRC, about 10% gain every decade. We're on a downswing.
cawacko
Well-known member
I take a very different view than you do over the Fed. For example, look at the very slow economic growth following the great recession yet the stock market boomed. That was totally driven by the Fed. You remember the 2013 'temper tantrum' the market throw when Bernanke said he was going to take the punch bowl away. The Fed said they were pushing for the wealth effect by basically creating assets bubbles in equities and housing. The Fed's role in stock market started well before TGR of course but their actions affect the market more than any President does.
Fair point, but those are secondary impacts. Our position on Ukraine is dictated by geopolitical impacts rather than economic impacts. When I say economics isn't 'political', it means that the economy doesn'treally care who is in office, it cares only about market forces. Those forces are definitely impacted by political decisions, but in the case of Ukraine, those are a secondary consideration. Understand your point though. Everything is political, and nothing is political. The truth is nuanced, but these clowns approach it with a rusty scimitar instead of a scalpel.
T. A. Gardner
Serial Thread Killer
No, just fucked up. Those who don't know the difference between terrorists and freedom fighters are unlikely to understand the difference between rule of law and rule of force.
You can get the plushie too!
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
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I like to see the alternate calculation as I was on hand for the Carter years so apples to apples helps me weigh it.
I guess I dont blame BLS for attempting to desensatize the numbers the whole government does it to ret and make things look less bad so since I realize that it doesnt work on me.
You use whichever number suits your argument best. Which completely invalidates your argument.