Trump Crushing Biden and DeSantis in New WaPo/ABC News Poll

T. A. Gardner said:
The overall bias is in favor of the Democrats, as indicated here, as one example:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
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538 isn’t reliable. They’ve actually had to apologize for their polling methods for getting stuff wrong.

Nate silver uses a prediction method of polling instead of an actual analysis of data which, when it’s correct, is almost 100% accurate but the problem is that even the smallest error in gathered data will cause the prediction to be wildly off mark.

This method has been known for a long time but isn’t used because of its inconsistency.

For instance, 538 only gave Trump a 2% chance of winning the election which prompted an apology from Silver.

538 is primarily used for sports betting because when they are right they are extremely accurate which can mean big bucks
 
Tinkerpeach said:
538 isn’t reliable. They’ve actually had to apologize for their polling methods for getting stuff wrong.

Nate silver uses a prediction method of polling instead of an actual analysis of data which, when it’s correct, is almost 100% accurate but the problem is that even the smallest error in gathered data will cause the prediction to be wildly off mark.

This method has been known for a long time but isn’t used because of its inconsistency.

For instance, 538 only gave Trump a 2% chance of winning the election which prompted an apology from Silver.

538 is primarily used for sports betting because when they are right they are extremely accurate which can mean big bucks
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You didn't look at the link I posted did you?

If you had, it was a list of polls that 538 uses and their bias. 538 isn't a polling group, but rather an aggregator. They take all the polls out there and aggregate them per a formula into one average. In that sense, they are usually more accurate than any one poll is. No poll is 100% accurate, but using aggregation is a good way to get a much better sample than simply using one poll, particularly one that has a usual and implicit bias in it.
 
T. A. Gardner said:
You didn't look at the link I posted did you?

If you had, it was a list of polls that 538 uses and their bias. 538 isn't a polling group, but rather an aggregator. They take all the polls out there and aggregate them per a formula into one average. In that sense, they are usually more accurate than any one poll is. No poll is 100% accurate, but using aggregation is a good way to get a much better sample than simply using one poll, particularly one that has a usual and implicit bias in it.
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That is incorrect. While they do average polls they go further than that and combine their own polling method with mathematical equations based on a version of the prisoners dilemma to arrive at a prediction.

It’s one of the methods our intelligence agencies use to predict what nations will do.

This is how 538 arrives at their spreads for sports games.
 
Tinkerpeach said:
That is incorrect. While they do average polls they go further than that and combine their own polling method with mathematical equations based on a version of the prisoners dilemma to arrive at a prediction.

It’s one of the methods our intelligence agencies use to predict what nations will do.

This is how 538 arrives at their spreads for sports games.
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That's not how I read what they're doing. The prisoner's dilemma doesn't apply to what they're doing at all. Instead, as I said, 538 aggregates the polls then applies regression analysis to those along with adding in some weighting factors of their own. That's how I'd proceed if I were doing it. They then run the regression using their weighting factors several different ways varying the weighting and then aggregate those outcomes into a final value.

I'm not real keen on a process that uses multiple regressions of previous regressions as an outcome, but that's what 538 does. Oh, I'd note they do no polling of their own, they are just an aggregator.
 
ExpressLane said:
Another year of an incompetent Biden administration . The border is secure while millions illegally cross our southern border. Fentanyl deaths at a all time high. The economy is great while 3 of the 4 largest bank failures of all time have occurred during the Biden administration. Inflation is up interest rates are up. Putin is threatening nuclear war and moving towards China. Meanwhile the national debt is spiraling out of control and Biden wants to spend spend spend.
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Trump spent more during his 4 years than any other President in our history! Trump also oversaw 15 bank failures in four years. Mr. trump is also under criminal indictment with more to follow. You must be so proud of that.
 
floridafan said:
Trump spent more during his 4 years than any other President in our history! Trump also oversaw 15 bank failures in four years. Mr. trump is also under criminal indictment with more to follow. You must be so proud of that.
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Nearly all of which was the Congressional COVID PAYOFFS...
 
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