'Obamaville' sign posted near homeless camp

Onceler said:
You are so back & forth on this thread that it's ridiculous.

Seriously - I have no idea what your position is, at all.
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show where I'm back and fourth once. I'm fucking left of the socialist here and want Obama to get 8% GDP. They are correct that we are putting out less goods with less people and will for a couple years.
You guys are correct that we are finally starting to grow again and will add jobs by the hundreds of thousands next year. Where have I said different?
 
cawacko said:
Thank you. Commercial Real Estate, our industry if pretty f*cked right now. While the residential market started turning downwards in 2006 we had a banner year in 2007 in the commercial market. Sh*t started hitting the fan in '08 and went to hell in '09. About 2/3'rds of investment grade properties mortgages across the U.S. will be under water in 2010/2011 due to short-term I/O loans taken out. The issue of course is banks don't necessarily want to take all these properties back which is a good thing as that would really cause things to crater.

My personal challenge is I went to school and all that but a lot of people with MBA's from top tier schools got laid off as well and I find that who's I'm competing with for the few job openings that are out there.

Things will eventually turn around as they always do and everything will be fine. It just happens to be a challenge now.
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Thats a tough industry to be in right now, maybe one of the worst. It will turn around... Remember, the only constant is change.
 
Onceler said:
That's a mischaracterization. A lot of indicators are climbing instead of declining: GDP, housing starts, consumer confidence, productivity, etc.
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In terms of total economic output, we are well below where we were in January. I am not saying that we are not seeing positive numbers right now. We are. But those positive numbers are coming off of the LOWS. They are not coming off of where we were in January.

consumer confidence is an survey of peoples EMOTIONS.

productivity gains show that the average output per worker did indeed increase... but the total output DECREASED. This is typical when companies are laying off. They add more work to their remaining workforce to try to maximize their production.

GDP growth for the QUARTER was up... but again... that is simply the growth rate for the quarter. It is indeed positive, but again does not reflect an economy where GDP is higher than it was in January.
 
cawacko said:
Thank you. Commercial Real Estate, our industry if pretty f*cked right now. While the residential market started turning downwards in 2006 we had a banner year in 2007 in the commercial market. Sh*t started hitting the fan in '08 and went to hell in '09. About 2/3'rds of investment grade properties mortgages across the U.S. will be under water in 2010/2011 due to short-term I/O loans taken out. The issue of course is banks don't necessarily want to take all these properties back which is a good thing as that would really cause things to crater.

My personal challenge is I went to school and all that but a lot of people with MBA's from top tier schools got laid off as well and I find that who's I'm competing with for the few job openings that are out there.

Things will eventually turn around as they always do and everything will be fine. It just happens to be a challenge now.
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This is why I am investing in non-traded REITS. They are cherry picking properties from distressed sellers right and left.... and they are able to pay with cash. No financing needed.
 
What is with the dismissal of "emotions" on confidence?

We have an economy that is based on consumer spending. Consumer confidence is a key indicator.

Maybe we can get the naysayers to agree on this one: the trends are better now than in January. How is that?
 
Jarod said:
You dont understand economics, its not just job numbers.
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LMAO.... that is quite comical Jarod.

Where did I state it was 'just job numbers'???? I am talking about our total economic output. As I stated, we will need to see GDP growth at 6% for a year in order to draw unemployment back to the 8-8.5% level.

Is that possible? Depends on how the remaining stimulus money is put to work and depends on whether cap and trade and the health care bills are passed.
 
Jarod is the BEST!!!
Obama is doing great with the economy. LOL
He wouldn't even say that. His numbers are significantly under what he forecasted he'd deliver with the stimulus.
I say he's doing OK with a huge ?, if he doesn't deliver 4% plus for 2 straight years you'll be congradulating the next republican pres.
 
Onceler said:
What is with the dismissal of "emotions" on confidence?

We have an economy that is based on consumer spending. Consumer confidence is a key indicator.

Maybe we can get the naysayers to agree on this one: the trends are better now than in January. How is that?
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We have said time and again that the OUTLOOK is better now than it was in January. You simply keep ignoring that part.

Consumer confidence is a LAGGING indicator. It is purely psychological. It is not based on fundamentals of the economy or market. If you look at it closely, it tends to chase the returns on the stock market. In March of 2000, it hit its all time high.... right before the collapse of the tech bubble... the most recent trough came in February/March this year. Consumers have their own jobs/lives that they worry about. They do not tend to keep up with the overall economic conditions. They rely heavily on the media to tell them whether the overall is getting better or worse. When the media tends to ignore the bad and hype the good like we saw in 1999 (and to a lesser degree today) consumers get over confident in the economy/market. When the media goes over board on the negative like we saw in 2002 (and again in the early part of this year) consumers confidence reflects it.

It is a very poor indicator of economic activity (or future activity). It is used more as a contrarian indicator.
 
Superfreak said:
yeah.... they are pretty much the only buyers out there. Grubb and Ellis, KBS, Behringer Harvard and Cole all have some good REITs out there right now.

Not familiar with CB's REIT...
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what's your m.o. - stick with them until they go public?
 
PostmodernProphet said:
REIT's only go public at the point you can no longer make any money on them...."going public" should be referred to as "profit taking".......
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That is not correct. While they do become more volatile in pricing upon going public, it is incorrect to state that they can no longer make money. The properties still produce income and the valuations of the properties can still rise.
 
Superfreak said:
I am jerking his chain with the apologist line. He enjoyed calling people 'bush apologists' when they disagreed with him while Bush was in office. Just returning the favor. Plus, he is apologizing for Obama.

No... he is wrong for the reasons I pointed out.
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Apologies.

Can't really detect any nuance to peoples's posts on these things.
 
Damocles said:
You have no idea what you are talking about. What evidence have you that I just accepted anything with Bush as you assume? I have no "sudden" problem. Perhaps if some of your liberal buddies hadn't spent the past 8 years saying that republicans should have trashed Bush we wouldn't expect it from you with this President and point out your hypocrisy.
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I didn't think I was referring to you personally, as I only referenced "your conservative buddies".

It's funny how, now, so many claim they didn't give Dubya one inch when it came to his BS.
 
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