The 2022 Nobel physics prize winner has all you need to know to debunk climate idiocy

Climate model provides data-driven answer to major goal of climate research

A new research study from The University of Alabama in Huntsville, a part of the University of Alabama System, addresses a central question of climate change research: how much warming can be expected from adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere through fossil fuel burning and other activities as standards of living increase around the world?

UAH Earth System Science Center Research Scientist Dr. Roy Spencer and UAH Earth System Science Center Director and Alabama State Climatologist Dr. John R. Christy have spent 10 years developing a one-dimensional climate model to answer this elusive question.

Their latest research study was published in the September 2023 issue of Theoretical and Applied Climatology journal titled "Effective climate sensitivity distributions from a 1D model of global ocean and land temperature trends, 1970–2021."

Spencer and Christy's climate model, based upon objective measured data, found carbon dioxide does not have as big of an effect of warming of the atmosphere when compared with other climate models.

"For over 30 years, dozens of highly sophisticated computerized climate models based upon theory have been unable to agree on an answer. That's why we developed our own one-dimensional climate model to provide an answer," says. Dr. Spencer.

Current climate models range over a factor of three, from 1.8 to 5.6° Celsius, in the amount of warming produced in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This warming response to double carbon dioxide is called "effective climate sensitivity." Determining its magnitude has remained elusive for decades.

When compared to other current climate models, the research results from Spencer and Christy's one-dimensional climate model approached the bottom end of the range, 1.9° Celsius. The lower UAH value indicates that the climate impact of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations is much less that that based on other climate models.

"An important assumption of our model, as well as the more complex models used by others, is that all climate change is human caused," Spencer states. "If recent warming is partly natural, it would further reduce climate sensitivity."

What distinguishes this model developed at UAH from others is that it is driven by actual observations of warming, rather than theoretical assumptions about how the climate system responds to increasing greenhouse gases.

The one-dimensional climate model uses a variety of observational datasets of warming between 1970 and 2021 of the deep ocean and land, along with associated uncertainty ranges. These datasets produced a range of estimates of climate sensitivity based upon basic concepts of energy conservation.

"The 52-year period since 1970 is key. It represents the period of most rapid warming, with the highest confidence in the observational data of deep-ocean warming," Spencer states.

The results of Spencer and Christy's research also showed a period of the most rapid growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide. This is due to their climate model accounting for heat storage in deeper layers of land, which other climate models ignore.

A critical advantage of their simple model is that it conserves energy.

"It should be a requirement that any physics-based model of global warming should meet," Spencer says. "Current computerized climate models continue to have difficulty achieving this aspect."

The model is simple enough that other scientists can easily adapt it to updated or improved global temperature measurements as they become available.
 
Someone on X recently said something like "The models are an obvious fraud, they dont even include clouds".

Now I cant say if this is true, but my attention perked up.
 
This thread by a member unlearned in science mocking an entire field of science tells you all you need to know about the member.
 
martin said:
This thread by a member unlearned in science mocking an entire field of science tells you all you need to know about the member.
Click to expand...

You're an idiot Smarty, I have a 2:1 in pure chemistry. It's clear that you've no idea what is being done here, you ought to shut your trap but I guess you just can't
help yourself. Climate models, even CMIP6 ones, are very bad at mimicking cloud behaviour but I wouldn't expect an imbecile like you to know that!!

.Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming

https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-clouds-are-the-key-to-new-troubling-projections-on-warming
 
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Hawkeye10 said:
Someone on X recently said something like "The models are an obvious fraud, they dont even include clouds".

Now I cant say if this is true, but my attention perked up.
Click to expand...

For years, NASA's website has admitted that they don't understand the role of clouds in climate. Because clouds also reflect sunlight back into space.
 
martin said:
This thread by a member unlearned in science mocking an entire field of science tells you all you need to know about the member.
Click to expand...

Appeal to authority fallacy.

You need to be told what to think. :palm:
 
Bigdog said:
For years, NASA's website has admitted that they don't understand the role of clouds in climate. Because clouds also reflect sunlight back into space.
Click to expand...

Sure, but they also hold heat in at night. The bottom line is that the "Experts" who are sure that we need to ruin civilization to save the planet dont know shit....it is yet more lies.
 
serendipity said:
You're an idiot Smarty, I have a 2:1 in pure chemistry. It's clear that you've no idea what is being done here, you ought to shut your trap but I guess you just can't
help yourself. Climate models, even CMIP6 ones, are very bad at mimicking cloud behaviour but I wouldn't expect an imbecile like you to know that!!

.Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming

https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-clouds-are-the-key-to-new-troubling-projections-on-warming
Click to expand...

Uh huh. And you think your C average in chemistry qualifies you an expert in climate science.
 
Bigdog said:
For years, NASA's website has admitted that they don't understand the role of clouds in climate. Because clouds also reflect sunlight back into space.
Click to expand...

Clouds are not homogenous. There are many different types of clouds that occur at different heights and are formed in different ways. You have what is basically a fluid that affected by temperature, density and wind. It is amazing that such a chaotic system can be mimicked at all.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Someone on X recently said something like "The models are an obvious fraud, they dont even include clouds".

Now I cant say if this is true, but my attention perked up.
Click to expand...

There are those that have been studying contrails made by aircraft that show as much as possibly a third or more of human caused climate change is due to them, but these are ignored by the True Believers because the fix is easy and quick. It doesn't bring more political power, economic gain, or control over society like forced CO2 reduction does.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Someone on X recently said something like "The models are an obvious fraud, they dont even include clouds".

Now I cant say if this is true, but my attention perked up.
Click to expand...


Yes,it true, the models can't account for the movements of water-vapour in clouds; likewise' the movements of water currents (small and large) in the oceans.
 
martin said:
Uh huh. And you think your C average in chemistry qualifies you an expert in climate science.
Click to expand...

Serendipshitty is just another run of the mill nobody who (he claims) managed to get a lower level degree in something that is not even specific to the subject in question, boasting about how he has all the answers in opposition to the real specialists in the field who've spent their lives in the professional observation and analysis of it.

And he actually expects the rest of us to abandon them and follow the idiocy that he and the likes of Bigdogshit subscribe to. :plalm:
 
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