Decision Desk HQ/The Hill and 538 said that while Trump is marginally considered the favorite, the race should still be considered a toss-up. Neither Trump or Harris have a clear lead in any of the seven main swing states which could determine who wins the election overall. The two are essentially tied in Pennsylvania in all five forecast models.
"However, polling in the seven key battleground states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—remains within the margin of error, meaning typical polling inaccuracies could shift the results in either direction," the Decision Desk HQ team said.
"You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast 'flipping' to Trump, but it's important to remember that a [53]-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris—both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate," 538's G. Elliot Morris wrote.
"While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the 'lead' tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race—that it's a toss-up—remains unchanged.".
www.newsweek.com
