FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i_f4f2aTH-f3gg39Jsm6ajtozRpAD9ED6Q1O0
Hung Parliament possible as UK polls tighten
By GREGORY KATZ (AP) – 1 hour ago
LONDON — The latest buzz word in the clubby world of British politics is "hung Parliament."
It doesn't mean the current Parliament would be hanged, although some voters in these troubled economic times might relish that idea. It means an election so close that no party receives more than half the seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of Parliament.
It's commonplace in most parliamentary democracies, but hasn't happened here for more than three decades — and the very idea has sent financially-battered Britain into a tizzy, causing the pound to tumble.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call a vote by June 3, with an early May date deemed likely. The widespread assumption that Conservative Party leader David Cameron would win an outright majority in the new Parliament has evaporated.
"It's just about 50-50 that we'll have a hung Parliament," said Bob Worcester, founder of the Ipsos MORI polling firm, which will be conducting Election Day exit polls for British news stations.
Voters seem tired of Brown and the Labour Party apparatus after 13 years in power, but it is not clear if they have really warmed up to Cameron in sufficient numbers to give him full control of Parliament.
If Cameron falls short, is Britain headed for its own hanging chad moment? In the contested U.S. election of 2000, the electoral college rules were clear, but the state of Florida's vote-counting mechanism was subject to all kinds of hiccups.
Britain suffers from the opposite problem: the voting process is smooth but constitutional arrangements are fuzzy.
The prospect of a hung Parliament might have insiders reaching for their copy of the British constitution — only there isn't one. This proud, time-tested democracy relies instead on a series of precedents and accepted conventions that comprise its own complex unwritten charter.
No one knows exactly how a hung Parliament would play out. An election in which no party gets an absolute majority raises a number of possibilities:
There may be political horsetrading leading to a coalition government, a rarity in Britain; a weak minority government chronically unable to muster policy support; or a second election, as was the case in 1974, another year in which Britain was going through an economic crisis.
The uncertainty has rattled the financial markets. Traders would prefer to see stability and predictability in a country coping with frightening levels of debt.
The postelection period would also raise the profile of Queen Elizabeth II, who is head of state but in reality prohibited from having a direct political role.
As monarch she would have to grant one of the party leaders permission to form a new government, and she would also have to OK a second election if needed. Her advisers want to make sure she isn't dragged by events into a partisan role.
Among factors experts cite in predicting a hung Parliament are a consistent tightening of all major polls in recent weeks, and the uncertainty about which candidate will gain from Britain's first-ever televised debates.
Worcester said expectations are sky high for the telegenic Cameron, but that Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whose grouchy demeanor makes many forget he was a national debate champion in university, may do unexpectedly well.
Another important factor, he said, is that Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg will receive unprecedented national attention simply by participating in the debate, giving the third party a solid chance to win more seats, which would make a hung Parliament more likely.
"The debates are the wild card," said Worcester, who like other pollsters will be carefully studying trends in "marginal" seats to see if the expected Conservative Party swing seems strong enough to give it an absolute majority. It's a formidable task — a gain of 116 seats is needed.
The situation is also hard to predict because many incumbents are not seeking re-election, in part because of the expense account scandal that last year revealed widespread abuse of public funds.
Britain last had a hung Parliament in 1996, when Prime Minister John Major's Conservative Party lost its absolute majority a year before it lost power altogether.
Mike Thomas, who works with Charter 2010, a group trying to lessen electoral uncertainty, said the morning after the vote may be quite suspenseful.
If, for example, Brown's Labour Party has fewer seats than the Conservatives, but the Conservatives are far short of an absolute majority, he expects Brown to hold onto his job and try to negotiate with one or more smaller parties to reach a majority.
"Then he could go to the queen and say he still has a majority and intends to carry on and she would say fine," said Thomas. "But if he knew that wasn't the case, then he would say that he doesn't control the majority and ask her to appoint Cameron. The complications arise if it's not clear."
About a 1/2 chance of a Conservative majority, a 30% chance the Liberals will be forced to support either Labour or the Conservatives in a minority government, a 10% chance Labour will win another majority, and a 10% chance the Liberals will be able to choose who makes up the next government. The race has tightened considerably since a while back, when the Conservatives were predicted to get the largest majority since the early parts of this century.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i_f4f2aTH-f3gg39Jsm6ajtozRpAD9ED6Q1O0
Hung Parliament possible as UK polls tighten
By GREGORY KATZ (AP) – 1 hour ago
LONDON — The latest buzz word in the clubby world of British politics is "hung Parliament."
It doesn't mean the current Parliament would be hanged, although some voters in these troubled economic times might relish that idea. It means an election so close that no party receives more than half the seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of Parliament.
It's commonplace in most parliamentary democracies, but hasn't happened here for more than three decades — and the very idea has sent financially-battered Britain into a tizzy, causing the pound to tumble.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call a vote by June 3, with an early May date deemed likely. The widespread assumption that Conservative Party leader David Cameron would win an outright majority in the new Parliament has evaporated.
"It's just about 50-50 that we'll have a hung Parliament," said Bob Worcester, founder of the Ipsos MORI polling firm, which will be conducting Election Day exit polls for British news stations.
Voters seem tired of Brown and the Labour Party apparatus after 13 years in power, but it is not clear if they have really warmed up to Cameron in sufficient numbers to give him full control of Parliament.
If Cameron falls short, is Britain headed for its own hanging chad moment? In the contested U.S. election of 2000, the electoral college rules were clear, but the state of Florida's vote-counting mechanism was subject to all kinds of hiccups.
Britain suffers from the opposite problem: the voting process is smooth but constitutional arrangements are fuzzy.
The prospect of a hung Parliament might have insiders reaching for their copy of the British constitution — only there isn't one. This proud, time-tested democracy relies instead on a series of precedents and accepted conventions that comprise its own complex unwritten charter.
No one knows exactly how a hung Parliament would play out. An election in which no party gets an absolute majority raises a number of possibilities:
There may be political horsetrading leading to a coalition government, a rarity in Britain; a weak minority government chronically unable to muster policy support; or a second election, as was the case in 1974, another year in which Britain was going through an economic crisis.
The uncertainty has rattled the financial markets. Traders would prefer to see stability and predictability in a country coping with frightening levels of debt.
The postelection period would also raise the profile of Queen Elizabeth II, who is head of state but in reality prohibited from having a direct political role.
As monarch she would have to grant one of the party leaders permission to form a new government, and she would also have to OK a second election if needed. Her advisers want to make sure she isn't dragged by events into a partisan role.
Among factors experts cite in predicting a hung Parliament are a consistent tightening of all major polls in recent weeks, and the uncertainty about which candidate will gain from Britain's first-ever televised debates.
Worcester said expectations are sky high for the telegenic Cameron, but that Prime Minister Gordon Brown, whose grouchy demeanor makes many forget he was a national debate champion in university, may do unexpectedly well.
Another important factor, he said, is that Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg will receive unprecedented national attention simply by participating in the debate, giving the third party a solid chance to win more seats, which would make a hung Parliament more likely.
"The debates are the wild card," said Worcester, who like other pollsters will be carefully studying trends in "marginal" seats to see if the expected Conservative Party swing seems strong enough to give it an absolute majority. It's a formidable task — a gain of 116 seats is needed.
The situation is also hard to predict because many incumbents are not seeking re-election, in part because of the expense account scandal that last year revealed widespread abuse of public funds.
Britain last had a hung Parliament in 1996, when Prime Minister John Major's Conservative Party lost its absolute majority a year before it lost power altogether.
Mike Thomas, who works with Charter 2010, a group trying to lessen electoral uncertainty, said the morning after the vote may be quite suspenseful.
If, for example, Brown's Labour Party has fewer seats than the Conservatives, but the Conservatives are far short of an absolute majority, he expects Brown to hold onto his job and try to negotiate with one or more smaller parties to reach a majority.
"Then he could go to the queen and say he still has a majority and intends to carry on and she would say fine," said Thomas. "But if he knew that wasn't the case, then he would say that he doesn't control the majority and ask her to appoint Cameron. The complications arise if it's not clear."
