I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th

[Sammy Jankis]

How would you mark things without a liquid market then?

why do you say liquid market?

often market participants need to get liquid to pay off their bad trades, like put options on a beloved company like gamestop.

 

[Sammy Jankis]

the big players did not want to pay off their day trades, because they are bad actors.

 

[Sammy Jankis]

I will rape you with your weasel words.

weasel words are the tell, for lawyer types.

you should just fucking lie.

 

[Sammy Jankis]

yeah.

try telling this to the Market when they call you for your margin call.


"there's just no liquitidy to support your trade".


fuck off.

 

[Poor Richard Saunders]

I bought at around $10.70(on average), and it is right now at $3.93, so I lost 63% so far.

You are the victim of TACO.

 

[Into the Night]

When?


Almost nothing, but right after it I lost my company that I had put about a million of my own money into. I did not declare bankruptcy, but instead paid off all its debts.


MGM properties did not go bankrupt. They were bought out at a profit.


You do not know what a pre-packaged bankruptcy is?

Deny it all you want, Wally. All MGM properties were in bankruptcy, sometimes multiple times, and they LOST two properties because of their own incompetence.

 

[Into the Night]

Trading was not suspended on the market, but buying was suspended by Robinhood(selling was still available). Robinhood was no longer being paid to sell GameStop stock, and in fact was being charged money to sell it. This meant that Robinhood was losing money, and fast.

There were some large institutions on the other side of the deals, but there were also many very rich individuals. Whoever they were, they were no longer willing to be on the other side of the deal.

Insider trading is a bit of a stretch. The "smart money" lost a lot of money, because they did not understand GameStop. That is the opposite of insider trading.

There is a problem that no one thinks about. Even if you do work out a way to make huge amounts of money, the rest of the world does not need to continue to provide you that way. With card counting, the casino can just ask you to leave. They do not need to allow you to continue gambling if they are losing. If you start making huge amounts of money at online poker, that will drive other online poker players away, and the online poker company can drop your limits down to a few pennies. You will still win at online poker, just win less than a dollar an hour.

The "smart money" ran into the same problem. They could not find anyone willing to take the other side of deals with them. The reason Robinhood exists is to funnel "dumb money" into the market to be the other side of deals. It is free, because everyone is just happy just to have "dumb money" in the market. When the "dumb money" turned out to be smart once, the "smart money" chose to walk away from the table.

Still whining over the money you lost, Wally?

 

[Into the Night]

I said that mark to model is necessary if there is no liquid market to mark it to. You responded, "no it fucking isn;t a necessity." So I asked how you would mark things that did not have a liquid market? Your response is whether I heard of a technique called "mark to model?" Yes, I have, and I said it is a necessity in such cases. You claim it is not, and therefore are claiming to have another solution. What is your solution?


Once again, massively misused, and even when not misused, very easy to get wrong. Having said that, often necessary, so the important thing is to get the model as good as possible, and more importantly use as many diverse models as possible.

Imagine you are a developer, who wants to build a thousand new houses just outside of town, where no suburban houses had been built before. How much of a loan can you get? There is no market for these homes to mark their value to yet, because they have not been built. What the bank must do is make a model based on other markets for homes outside similar towns, and then mark the value of your future homes to that. They will then give you a loan based on the model, not the nonexistent market.

No, Wally. That's not how it works.

Banks don't give you loans of that magnitude without collateral.

 

[Into the Night]

You are the victim of TACO.

Have you been a victim of a taco?? Gotta watch those refried beans!

 

[Walt]

Deny it all you want, Wally. All MGM properties were in bankruptcy, sometimes multiple times, and they LOST two properties because of their own incompetence.

Properties cannot go bankrupt. It would be a corporation, or person that would go bankrupt. A corporation is a "corporate person", and so is treated like a person in terms of bankruptcy. Your house cannot go bankrupt; you are going bankrupt.

MGM the corporation had one bankruptcy in 2010, and it was not because of its casinos.

 

[Walt]

Banks don't give you loans of that magnitude without collateral.

The value of the collateral(the mark) can be set two ways: either by the market, or by a model of some sort. If the market does not exist yet, or is not liquid enough, then the only way to mark it is mark to model.

 

[Walt]

Worth reminding everyone, trump was found guilty of lying for the inputs in a mark to model valuation. he got a loan using mar-a-lardo as collateral, so a value had to be set on the property. mar-a-lardo equivalent properties are not commonly bought and sold, so not a liquid market. They had no choice but turn to a model. trump claimed that he could subdivide and sell mar-a-lardo for condos, but that was a lie. he had already signed off on that right to get tax concessions.

So trump is guilty of misusing mark to model.

yeah.
try telling this to the Market when they call you for your margin call.
"there's just no liquitidy to support your trade".
fuck off.

I cannot think of a way that you could use mark to model collateral to invest on margin, so if you had a margin call, it was because of mark to market. Margin calls are rough. After a brutal margin call, I thought I did everything in my power to avoid another margin call... And then I had another margin call. Stay tough, and good luck. And learn from this to avoid margins.

why do you say liquid market?

The equity has to be constantly traded to have a constant price. An illiquid market will not tell you the price of things.

and its never necessary fucking idiot.

There are two ways to mark something, either to market or to model(of some form). If the market is not given a price, then you are stuck using a model of some form.

And the market is not always perfect either. Kraft was buying cheese with contracts agreeing to pay the exchange price on a certain date. They would flood the exchange with cheese on that date, lowering the price by 10% to 20%.

I will rape you with your weasel words.

weasel words are the tell, for lawyer types.

you should just fucking lie.

You sound more than a little crazy.

walt hates freedom and loves population reduction Nazi policies.

Definitely crazy.

 

[Walt]

You are the victim of TACO.

Basically, yes. The worst part is there is a word for it. People believe trump will always chicken out of his stupid decisions, because there is a word for it. If it were just a feeling without a word, they would be less likely to believe it. But there is a word, and it is taco.

And I have a deadline, so I may fail because the market misses my deadline.

 

[IBDaMann]

Worth reminding everyone, trump was found guilty of lying for the inputs in a mark to model valuation.

Worth reminding everyone that no court gets to somehow warp reality. An unjust decision in a rigged court absolutely does not somehow transform reality. Trump was not guilty of anything, in reality.

he got a loan using mar-a-lardo as collateral, so a value had to be set on the property.

The source of the loan, Deutsche Bank, was completely satisfied with the collateral. The loan was fully repaid. Deutsche Bank was elated at having done business with Trump and will jump at the chance to do so again in the future.

The equity has to be constantly traded to have a constant price. An illiquid market will not tell you the price of things.

This is overly convoluted wording. Being for sale = having a price. If there is no price, it's not for sale. If it's not for sale, there is no price.

Let me know if you have any questions.

 

[Into the Night]

Properties cannot go bankrupt.

They sure can, Wally! Your word salad won't work here!

MGM the corporation had one bankruptcy in 2010, and it was not because of its casinos.

Compositional error fallacy. Attempted negative proof fallacy.

 

[Into the Night]

The value of the collateral(the mark) can be set two ways: either by the market, or by a model of some sort. If the market does not exist yet, or is not liquid enough, then the only way to mark it is mark to model.

Word salad won't work here, Wally.

 

[Into the Night]

Worth reminding everyone, trump was found guilty of lying for the inputs in a mark to model valuation.

Word salad won't work here, Wally.
Trump has committed no crime.

he got a loan using mar-a-lardo as collateral, so a value had to be set on the property. mar-a-lardo equivalent properties are not commonly bought and sold, so not a liquid market. They had no choice but turn to a model. trump claimed that he could subdivide and sell mar-a-lardo for condos, but that was a lie. he had already signed off on that right to get tax concessions.

A New York judge has no authority over valuation of property in Florida or of anything in Florida, Wally.

So trump is guilty of misusing mark to model.

Word salad won't work here.

 

[gfm7175]

You are the victim of TACO.

Typical leftist victim mentality.

Who is TACO?

 

[Poor Richard Saunders]

Typical leftist victim mentality.

Who is TACO?

You are the victim of poor schooling.

Now can you tell us who "poor schooling" is?

 

[Sammy Jankis]

No, Wally. That's not how it works.

Banks don't give you loans of that magnitude without collateral.

that's how walt wants it to work.

men in suits just deciding what everything is worth according to their own inside positions.

mark to model.

GameStop.