I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th
- Thread starter Walt
- Start date
Based Chad
Was it me?
pointer to dum dum.
Based Chad
Was it me?
There are quite a few billionaires shorting the S&P. You can hedge if you have to. The EU is done, the US can't be too far behind. I need a break from all the gloom and doom.
Based Chad
Was it me?
"Smart money" sees where things are going. Even a lot of retail investors see where things are going. The limited number of retail investors betting that "Nothing Ever Happens!!!" gives me hope that they will run out of money by Sept 30th.
The EU is such a good idea that it seems to survive any level of silly mismanagement.
They are debating a budget that will be 7 years long, and will not come into effect for 2 years. They are trying to budget 9 years in advance. They need the approval of all 27 member states. That is crazy.
And yet they have a better chance of getting a budget on time than the USA. That is just weird.
ROFLI predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th, and I put my money where my mouth is. I have bought a bunch of SPY puts centering around a strike price of $500, all expiring on September 30th. If the S&P goes down to around 4,000, I will make quite a bit of money.
If the S&P 500 stays above 5,000, then you can laugh at me
What a fucking moron you are.
We shall see.
Obvious point, you just posted the Dow Jones, when we are specifically talking about the S&P 500... It would not have been the hard to be right.
The final "fuck you" to America by those who were running the Biden Regime was slaughtering 300 million chickens to sabotage egg prices. The hope was to trigger widespread inflation.
But Trump addressed the problem AND brought gas prices sharply down.
democrat plots to attack the economy have failed.
Trump destroyed the nuclear facilities of your allies in Iran. If you were counting on a nuclear attack to tank our economy - it ain't going to happen.
Anything severe enough to cause a 40,000 point drop in the DOW would mean the nation was crippled. Even 9-11 didn't have that level of impact. Whatever terrorist event you're counting on, even if your side pulls it off, wouldn't cause that kind of slide.
Mea Culpa.
Even with the S&P you are living a pipe dream. You may HOPE America will lose a quarter of our wealth - but it ain't gunna happen.
For the S&P 500 to hit 5,000, the Dow Jones does not have to fall 40,000 points. They are two very different numbers. The S&P 500 is at 6,378, so for it to go to 5,000 would require it to lose about 1,378 or about 22%. Usually the Dow moves at roughly the same percent, so about 9,000 points.
A 22% drop in the S&P 500 would be possible without the nation being crippled, but I would argue in this case it would be an indicator that the nation's economy was being crippled.
A 20+% drop in the market from its high means we are in a bear market. We enter bear markets every couple of years. It is not considered bizarre.
At this point we just need a prediction of a mild recession to enter a bear market. Remember it is much easier to enter a bear market when stocks are overvalued.
The stock market going down by 20% would mean America would lose about 2% of its wealth. That is hardly a quarter.
What number would you go with?
Into the Night
Verified User
The United States isn't Japan, Wally; and Japan has not had deflation since they went to fiat currency.
It never has since the fiat dollar was implemented illegally by FDR.
Inflation is not a target, Wally.
Argument from randU fallacy. Stop making up number, Wally.
Irrelevant, Wally. Interest rates are not money.
Into the Night
Verified User
Random words. No apparent coherency. Go learn English.
Into the Night
Verified User
Argument form randU fallacy. Making up numbers doesn't work, Wally.
Into the Night
Verified User
Attempted force of randU fallacy.