Into the Night
Verified User
Stop making up shit about yourself, Wally.
I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th
- Thread starter Walt
- Start date
Into the Night
Verified User
Making gasoline is easy.
It is even easier to make penicillin.
You just have no idea how this stuff is made.
Making gasoline is not hard work. Making penicillin isn't hard work either.
Nope. All you really need is the initiative to do it. I guess you have no clue how to stick a seed in the ground and to grow it into a mature plant. Just sunlight, water, and a bit of fertilizer.
What government check? I'm not dependent on the government like you are.
Into the Night
Verified User
What embargo??
Domestic production, Wally.
No trouble. Domestic production.
IBDaMann
Well-known member
Yes. It's looking like if this were The Price is Right then my bid will have gone over ... but if having too much faith in my country is wrong, then I don't want to be right.@IBDaMann My prediction of $6,800.00 "on or about October 1st 2025" isn't looking too bad atm.(post #332, dated 07/10/2025)
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
So much dumb
IBDaMann
Well-known member
You've been belly-aching this for months. You know that your economics acument isn't getting any better. I just went to WalMart. The shelves are fully loaded. Costco shelves are fully loaded. All shelves everywhere are fully loaded.
Could I possibly persuade you to give the nay-saying delusions a rest? US GDP spiked 3.3% last quarter. $120 Billion in free money for the US over five months from a well-thought-out tariff plan. Things are GREAT ... not TERRIBLE.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
GDP is going to be even higher yet when the preliminary Q3 numbers come out at the end of next month.
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
Protectionism is smart
Globalist zealotry is dum dum sauce.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
And now another revision just came out for Q2 GDP... It's now been revised upward to 3.8%.
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
Matt Dillon
Retardium User
I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th, and I put my money where my mouth is. I have bought a bunch of SPY puts centering around a strike price of $500, all expiring on September 30th. If the S&P goes down to around 4,000, I will make quite a bit of money.
If the S&P 500 stays above 5,000, then you can laugh at me
Matt Dillon
Retardium User
Tariffs are designed to encourage domestic production. Nee, protect it.
The opposite of NAFTA.
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
Follow wally for more economic advice.I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th, and I put my money where my mouth is. I have bought a bunch of SPY puts centering around a strike price of $500, all expiring on September 30th. If the S&P goes down to around 4,000, I will make quite a bit of money.
If the S&P 500 stays above 5,000, then you can laugh at me
Just like Brazil and North Korea?
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
maybe. I don't get the point.
@Lionfish
I did say you could laugh at me if it did not work out.
Anyway, I have found in life that you can fail a lot of the time, as long as your wins more than make up for your losses. It was upsetting to lose so much money in one day, and to have it happen on two days, but then I look and see I am still up for the year, and I am OK.
Right now I am buying a series of options. Once a week, I buy some puts on SPY(basically the S&P 500) five weeks away from expiring. Last week I bought them at a strike price of $630 for an average price of $4.07. This week I will probably get it at a strike price of $640.
Most will expire out of the money. A few will [HOPEFULLY] make a huge return. At the rate I am going, I can easily do this for the next 65 weeks without dipping into the money I need/want for retirement and family obligations. So I would be looking for a major downward adjustment any time before 2027.
If it does payoff at some point over the next year and a quarter, I would take some of the money and put it in my standard retirement investments. Currently my plan for most of the money would be invested in puts and calls around SPY and GLD. Basically, I would want to profit from trump instability, while the "nothing ever happens" investors continue to expect stability.
Autarkies run the spectrum from Brazil to North Korea depending on how severe they are. The best you can hope for is an economy like Brazil. Do we want to be like Brazil? Do we want to be like North Korea?
There was a time that Brazil did better than Portugal. It was like comparing the US to Britain. Portugal opened itself to trade, and is doing noticeably better than Brazil who has closed itself to trade.
Right after the war, the average North Korean was better off than the average South Korean. It is hard to even comprehend how different that is now.
Phyllis Diller
Was it me?
we could do it better than them all.
though I'm not for full autarky, I am on key products categories.
You seem to be for a Brazilian level of autarky, where almost everything from outside the USA is taxed at high rates to protect production inside the USA.