Social Security Question

cawacko

Well-known member
This column is from a business writer for the LA Times. At the end he says people mistakenly think that S.S. contributes to the deficit. That's correct right that the government keeps a different set of books for S.S. and Medicare so those costs are not counted in the deficit? However aren't there trillions in unfunded liabilities from S.S. that the author is not referencing at all?

And the author says conservatives have managed to create a panic among people about the rising deficit. Hasn't it really been a bi-partisan group of people, including folks in the Obama administration, that have said our deficit isn't sustainable long term?


Social Security: Will Obama panel cripple it with 'minor' tweaks?

Social Security's curse is that its amazing simplicity from the standpoint of its beneficiaries — those checks keep coming regardless of the state of the economy or the federal budget — masks the complexity of its inner workings.

This is what allows the program's antagonists to disguise their efforts to destroy it as merely minor tweaks — requiring from the rest of us never-ending vigilance. That's because some seemingly "minor" fixes can have consequences great enough to wreck the entire edifice, the way a tiny water leak can eat away a foundation and bring down a house.

Every national election seems to feature conservatives weeping crocodile tears over Social Security's supposed fiscal plight. The latest example is Sharron Angle, the Tea Party/GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate in Nevada. During an appearance on Fox News Channel a few days after her primary victory, she was thrown the following softball question by a host: "Some have said you are out to get rid of Social Security. That's not true, right?"

She replied, "Well, that's nonsense."

Leave aside that her own website calls for Social Security to be "transitioned out" in favor of "free market alternatives." And that in her answer on Fox, she said, "what we need to do is personalize Social Security."

This is the old George W. Bush plan to privatize Social Security in new clothing. It's a way of diverting crucial resources from the program and loading more risk onto the shoulders of working men and women and their families — more exposure to the stock market, to Wall Street chicanery, to promoters of gold accounts and other nostrums — and eroding the average person's one secure path to a comfortable retirement.

In the past, one could count on the Democratic Party to stand firm against attacks on this most successful government program. There's reason to wonder whether this is still the case.

The instrument causing Social Security advocates anxiety today is the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, which President Obama created in February to address the long-term budget deficit. Everything, including so-called entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security, should be on the table, he said, prompting some progressives to worry that he's plotting to offer Republicans cuts in Social Security in exchange for their agreeing to tax increases.

Created while Obama was still in his foursquare bipartisanship phase, the panel includes such Republican deficit hawks in sheep's clothing as Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire and Rep. Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin.

Then there's the panel's Republican co-chairman, former Sen. Alan Simpson of Wyoming. Like Newt Gingrich, Simpson is one of those relentlessly partisan political insiders who casts an inexplicable charm over Washington denizens on both sides of the aisle.

Judging from a videotape of an impromptu interview following a recent commission meeting, Simpson has assiduously turned himself into a repository of every asinine misconception ever uttered about Social Security. Over the years I've accumulated a large collection of half-truths and outright lies purveyed about this program, but Simpson came up with a couple I'd never heard before.

Given his prominence as deficit hawk, it's probably wise to shoot them down now, before they escape into the wild and morph into common talking points.

Simpson's weirdest contention is that Social Security was "never" a retirement program. "They thought … you would die at 57 and that's why they set the [retirement] date at 65," he said of the program's creators. "The thing was set up when the life expectancy was 57 years." The program, Simpson claimed to his interviewer, a pro-Social Security activist, was merely "set up to take care of poor guys in the Depression."

These notions are easily debunked. To begin with, old age pensions — i.e., "retirement" —were always a crucial component of Social Security. How do we know this? Because Edwin E. Witte, the executive director of the Committee on Economic Security, which was established by Franklin D. Roosevelt to create a social safety net, said so to Congress while it was debating the bill.

As much as 30% to 50% of the aged already were "dependent, in whole or in part, upon the support of others" prior to the Depression, Witte testified. Far from treating the need for government pensions casually or as an afterthought, he said, "this bill contemplates that where old people do not have means to support themselves … they shall be supported by the public in a decent and humane way through a pension system."

As for Simpson's assertion that the program's founders connived to fleece the public by setting the retirement age well above life expectancy — "who would dream" that life expectancy would rise from 57 to 75, he asked — God knows where he got that idea.

The truth is that, while life expectancies have increased in the years since Social Security's enactment in 1935, it was widely understood even then that average longevity rates would quickly produce a sizable population of Americans over 70.

In 1931, for example, the average life expectancy at birth for all Americans was 61; but because that figure was skewed by high infant mortality, the average rose sharply for Americans who made it past childhood. At that time it was 66 for a 20-year-old, nearly 71 for a 45-year-old, and 75 for a 60-year-old. (These numbers come from the federal government's national vital statistics reports.)

By 1939, when Congress dramatically expanded the program, those figures had risen — to nearly 64 at birth, about 68 1/2 at 20, nearly 72 at age 45, and nearly 76 at age 60. These are averages, mind you, so the drafters didn't have to "dream" that people would live to 75, as Simpson fantasizes — they had the evidence in front of their eyes.

When people like Simpson, Gregg, and Ryan denigrate Social Security as an "entitlement" program, check your wallet. You're entitled to Social Security because you've paid for it throughout your working life, not because you think you're entitled to get something for nothing.

The president's commission isn't entirely reliant on such hackery. One member, Alice Rivlin of the Brookings Institution, has advocated raising the cap on income subject to the Social Security tax (it's currently $106,800) and modestly raising the retirement age, but taking privatization off the table. And Obama's chief budget advisor, Peter Orszag (who will soon be leaving the administration), co-authored a penetrating analysis of Social Security in 2004 that made similar recommendations.

Still, conservatives have managed to instill a sense of rising panic about the federal deficit among many Americans. More perilously, they are trying to convince taxpayers that Social Security is a source of the problem.

What's their motivation? Some are helping out their friends in the investment industry, who have long coveted a bigger piece of the retirement action. Some are simply following the traditional conservative precept that government shouldn't do anything that private enterprise wants to do. And some are genuinely concerned about the size of the federal deficit, but are mistaken in their belief that Social Security contributes to the problem.

It doesn't; it still runs a surplus from contributions and interest due. The more important point is that it is the most efficient and successful government program in American history, saving millions of individuals and families from destitution since 1940.

For some reason, there are people in Washington who don't like that idea. It's up to those who understand the program's virtues to drown them out, and make sure that their voices are heard deep inside the White House.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hiltzik-20100623,0,901199.column
 
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Wow, that made my brain hurt.


My understanding from people who I trust and know more about this than me, is that social security can be strenghthened with a few tweaks. Like what reagan did.

Is obama undermining SS? I think he might be.


My deal, is that my entire life I've heard conservatives claim SS is on the verge of cratering. In fact, I think if you went back 50 or 60 years, you'd hear the same crap from conservatives. For some strange reason, these NeoCon prophecies never seem to come true. Kinda like with WMD.

They hate SS. That's the bottom line. The problem is they can't say straight out they want to eliminate it. Even the elderly teabaggers at those tea parties don't want to cut their SS benefits. I'm not actually sure what those tea partiers want to cut. I haven't seen any signs about Pentagon spending, or Iraq and Afghan war spending. And after the freaking stock market meltdown, I doubt there's any sane person who wants all their money on wall street. SS is a nice little, safe backup plan for supplemental retirement insurance.
 
Wow, that made my brain hurt.


My understanding from people who I trust and know more about this than me, is that social security can be strenghthened with a few tweaks. Like what reagan did.

Is obama undermining SS? I think he might be.


My deal, is that my entire life I've heard conservatives claim SS is on the verge of cratering. In fact, I think if you went back 50 or 60 years, you'd hear the same crap from conservatives. For some strange reason, these NeoCon prophecies never seem to come true. Kinda like with WMD.

They hate SS. That's the bottom line. The problem is they can't say straight out they want to eliminate it. Even the elderly teabaggers at those tea parties don't want to cut their SS benefits. I'm not actually sure what those tea partiers want to cut. I haven't seen any signs about Pentagon spending, or Iraq and Afghan war spending. And after the freaking stock market meltdown, I doubt there's any sane person who wants all their money on wall street. SS is a nice little, safe backup plan for supplemental retirement insurance.

Once again the resident leg humping moron spews forth yet more ignorant talking points from the left wing nut sites he worships.

Conservatives don't want SS to die... they want it fixed from the current ponzi scheme that it is. Rob Peter to pay Paul is an ignorant fucking system.

Privatization does NOT mean putting everyones money in the market. It means taking it out of the hands of the politicians and putting it back with the people paying in. The chanting from the morons on the left like our resident moron Cypress that privatization means putting everything into the market is nothing more than an idiotic scare tactic from the left to preserve the status quo.

As for Social Security... the reason it 'hasn't happened yet, is that the projections have ALWAYS been in the future. As the government has squandered opportunity after opportunity to fix social security's vastly underfunded status, the date of negative flows has crept closer and closer. As has the insolvency. This is not some 'conservative' scare tactic as Cypress would pretend. This has been analyzed time and again by the CBO... you know... one of those unimpeachable government agencies he likes to rely on. In 2003, the CBO has stated that the flow will be negative starting in 2019 and benefits will not be able to be paid starting in 2053...

http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=5530&type=0&sequence=1

Because of the downturn in the economy and the subsequent loss of revenue from payroll (due to high unemployment).... the CBO recently revised those numbers. 2010... yes THIS YEAR.... the CBO projects that the outlays will exceed the revenues for the first time. Obviously if the unemployment situation improves dramatically in the second half of thist year, that may not occur. But that is currently what the unimpeachable CBO is stating. Keep in mind... they are referring to the primary deficit... which does not include interest payments. With interest payments they expect SS to have a positive balance for 30 years (which if you can count means 2040 instead of 2053). Though the DI portion is scheduled to be insolvent in 8 years.

So take the CBO... a well established non-partisan government agency of unimpeachable experts... or take the rantings of internet message board poster Cypress and his band of left wing bloggers.

http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=595

That said.... can SS be tweaked to push those dates back? yes... the CBO lists four ways in the first link I posted.
 
This column is from a business writer for the LA Times. At the end he says people mistakenly think that S.S. contributes to the deficit. That's correct right that the government keeps a different set of books for S.S. and Medicare so those costs are not counted in the deficit? However aren't there trillions in unfunded liabilities from S.S. that the author is not referencing at all?

And the author says conservatives have managed to create a panic among people about the rising deficit. Hasn't it really been a bi-partisan group of people, including folks in the Obama administration, that have said our deficit isn't sustainable long term?


Social Security: Will Obama panel cripple it with 'minor' tweaks?

Social Security's curse is that its amazing simplicity from the standpoint of its beneficiaries — those checks keep coming regardless of the state of the economy or the federal budget — masks the complexity of its inner workings.

This is what allows the program's antagonists to disguise their efforts to destroy it as merely minor tweaks — requiring from the rest of us never-ending vigilance. That's because some seemingly "minor" fixes can have consequences great enough to wreck the entire edifice, the way a tiny water leak can eat away a foundation and bring down a house.

Every national election seems to feature conservatives weeping crocodile tears over Social Security's supposed fiscal plight. The latest example is Sharron Angle, the Tea Party/GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate in Nevada. During an appearance on Fox News Channel a few days after her primary victory, she was thrown the following softball question by a host: "Some have said you are out to get rid of Social Security. That's not true, right?"

She replied, "Well, that's nonsense."

Leave aside that her own website calls for Social Security to be "transitioned out" in favor of "free market alternatives." And that in her answer on Fox, she said, "what we need to do is personalize Social Security."

This is the old George W. Bush plan to privatize Social Security in new clothing. It's a way of diverting crucial resources from the program and loading more risk onto the shoulders of working men and women and their families — more exposure to the stock market, to Wall Street chicanery, to promoters of gold accounts and other nostrums — and eroding the average person's one secure path to a comfortable retirement.

In the past, one could count on the Democratic Party to stand firm against attacks on this most successful government program. There's reason to wonder whether this is still the case.

The instrument causing Social Security advocates anxiety today is the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, which President Obama created in February to address the long-term budget deficit. Everything, including so-called entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security, should be on the table, he said, prompting some progressives to worry that he's plotting to offer Republicans cuts in Social Security in exchange for their agreeing to tax increases.

Created while Obama was still in his foursquare bipartisanship phase, the panel includes such Republican deficit hawks in sheep's clothing as Sen. Judd Gregg of New Hampshire and Rep. Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin.

Then there's the panel's Republican co-chairman, former Sen. Alan Simpson of Wyoming. Like Newt Gingrich, Simpson is one of those relentlessly partisan political insiders who casts an inexplicable charm over Washington denizens on both sides of the aisle.

Judging from a videotape of an impromptu interview following a recent commission meeting, Simpson has assiduously turned himself into a repository of every asinine misconception ever uttered about Social Security. Over the years I've accumulated a large collection of half-truths and outright lies purveyed about this program, but Simpson came up with a couple I'd never heard before.

Given his prominence as deficit hawk, it's probably wise to shoot them down now, before they escape into the wild and morph into common talking points.

Simpson's weirdest contention is that Social Security was "never" a retirement program. "They thought … you would die at 57 and that's why they set the [retirement] date at 65," he said of the program's creators. "The thing was set up when the life expectancy was 57 years." The program, Simpson claimed to his interviewer, a pro-Social Security activist, was merely "set up to take care of poor guys in the Depression."

These notions are easily debunked. To begin with, old age pensions — i.e., "retirement" —were always a crucial component of Social Security. How do we know this? Because Edwin E. Witte, the executive director of the Committee on Economic Security, which was established by Franklin D. Roosevelt to create a social safety net, said so to Congress while it was debating the bill.

As much as 30% to 50% of the aged already were "dependent, in whole or in part, upon the support of others" prior to the Depression, Witte testified. Far from treating the need for government pensions casually or as an afterthought, he said, "this bill contemplates that where old people do not have means to support themselves … they shall be supported by the public in a decent and humane way through a pension system."

As for Simpson's assertion that the program's founders connived to fleece the public by setting the retirement age well above life expectancy — "who would dream" that life expectancy would rise from 57 to 75, he asked — God knows where he got that idea.

The truth is that, while life expectancies have increased in the years since Social Security's enactment in 1935, it was widely understood even then that average longevity rates would quickly produce a sizable population of Americans over 70.

In 1931, for example, the average life expectancy at birth for all Americans was 61; but because that figure was skewed by high infant mortality, the average rose sharply for Americans who made it past childhood. At that time it was 66 for a 20-year-old, nearly 71 for a 45-year-old, and 75 for a 60-year-old. (These numbers come from the federal government's national vital statistics reports.)

By 1939, when Congress dramatically expanded the program, those figures had risen — to nearly 64 at birth, about 68 1/2 at 20, nearly 72 at age 45, and nearly 76 at age 60. These are averages, mind you, so the drafters didn't have to "dream" that people would live to 75, as Simpson fantasizes — they had the evidence in front of their eyes.

When people like Simpson, Gregg, and Ryan denigrate Social Security as an "entitlement" program, check your wallet. You're entitled to Social Security because you've paid for it throughout your working life, not because you think you're entitled to get something for nothing.

The president's commission isn't entirely reliant on such hackery. One member, Alice Rivlin of the Brookings Institution, has advocated raising the cap on income subject to the Social Security tax (it's currently $106,800) and modestly raising the retirement age, but taking privatization off the table. And Obama's chief budget advisor, Peter Orszag (who will soon be leaving the administration), co-authored a penetrating analysis of Social Security in 2004 that made similar recommendations.

Still, conservatives have managed to instill a sense of rising panic about the federal deficit among many Americans. More perilously, they are trying to convince taxpayers that Social Security is a source of the problem.

What's their motivation? Some are helping out their friends in the investment industry, who have long coveted a bigger piece of the retirement action. Some are simply following the traditional conservative precept that government shouldn't do anything that private enterprise wants to do. And some are genuinely concerned about the size of the federal deficit, but are mistaken in their belief that Social Security contributes to the problem.

It doesn't; it still runs a surplus from contributions and interest due. The more important point is that it is the most efficient and successful government program in American history, saving millions of individuals and families from destitution since 1940.

For some reason, there are people in Washington who don't like that idea. It's up to those who understand the program's virtues to drown them out, and make sure that their voices are heard deep inside the White House.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hiltzik-20100623,0,901199.column
Oh you are going to be pillaried by the right wingers Wacko. How dare you post the truth! What were you thinking? ;-)

Excellent article.
 
Once again the resident leg humping moron spews forth yet more ignorant talking points from the left wing nut sites he worships.

Conservatives don't want SS to die... they want it fixed from the current ponzi scheme that it is. Rob Peter to pay Paul is an ignorant fucking system.

Privatization does NOT mean putting everyones money in the market. It means taking it out of the hands of the politicians and putting it back with the people paying in. The chanting from the morons on the left like our resident moron Cypress that privatization means putting everything into the market is nothing more than an idiotic scare tactic from the left to preserve the status quo.

As for Social Security... the reason it 'hasn't happened yet, is that the projections have ALWAYS been in the future. As the government has squandered opportunity after opportunity to fix social security's vastly underfunded status, the date of negative flows has crept closer and closer. As has the insolvency. This is not some 'conservative' scare tactic as Cypress would pretend. This has been analyzed time and again by the CBO... you know... one of those unimpeachable government agencies he likes to rely on. In 2003, the CBO has stated that the flow will be negative starting in 2019 and benefits will not be able to be paid starting in 2053...

http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=5530&type=0&sequence=1

Because of the downturn in the economy and the subsequent loss of revenue from payroll (due to high unemployment).... the CBO recently revised those numbers. 2010... yes THIS YEAR.... the CBO projects that the outlays will exceed the revenues for the first time. Obviously if the unemployment situation improves dramatically in the second half of thist year, that may not occur. But that is currently what the unimpeachable CBO is stating. Keep in mind... they are referring to the primary deficit... which does not include interest payments. With interest payments they expect SS to have a positive balance for 30 years (which if you can count means 2040 instead of 2053). Though the DI portion is scheduled to be insolvent in 8 years.

So take the CBO... a well established non-partisan government agency of unimpeachable experts... or take the rantings of internet message board poster Cypress and his band of left wing bloggers.

http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=595

That said.... can SS be tweaked to push those dates back? yes... the CBO lists four ways in the first link I posted.
Come on dude, give me a break. Even the CBO's data suggest that a few minor tweeks would cover the "projected" short falls in revenue.

The CBO's projection is that by 2030 SS revenues would be about 5% of GDP and payments would represent about 6% of GDP. That's a 1% gap in GDP so spare us the "Ponzi Scheme" hyperbole.

The recomendations that a modest increase in retirement age to 67 and a modest increase in the payroll tax ceiling fixes the problem.

Now when you consider that the Baby Boomer population begins to die off between 2015 and 2035 the reverse split we see between workers and claiments comes begins to reverse and the percentage of GDP outgoing will drop.

The CBO's report in no way undermines the authors article. It in fact supports it.
 
Come on dude, give me a break. Even the CBO's data suggest that a few minor tweeks would cover the "projected" short falls in revenue.

Link to those 'minor tweeks'???? I provided a list of what the CBO stated. You should do likewise.

The CBO's projection is that by 2030 SS revenues would be about 5% of GDP and payments would represent about 6% of GDP. That's a 1% gap in GDP so spare us the "Ponzi Scheme" hyperbole.

Percent of GDP is meaningless you twit. It is about revenues vs. outlays of the SS system itself. As for the ponzi scheme... look up the definition moron... SS is designed to take money from Peter to pay Paul. The CBO states clearly that AS THE SYSTEM STANDS TODAY... it will FAIL. Unless the government makes changes. THAT is the fucking point. So... is Obama going to reduce bene's? Raise taxes? Sit on his ass? WHAT?

The recomendations that a modest increase in retirement age to 67 and a modest increase in the payroll tax ceiling fixes the problem.

They have ALREADY increased the bene age to 67 for anyone born after 1960. (though you can take reduced bene's prior to that). They are NOT going to raise the age on anyone born prior to that.

As for the 'modest increase in taxes'.... again... provide a link that defines your idea of 'modest'

Now when you consider that the Baby Boomer population begins to die off between 2015 and 2035 the reverse split we see between workers and claiments comes begins to reverse and the percentage of GDP outgoing will drop.

Link to whereever you got the above....

The CBO's report in no way undermines the authors article. It in fact supports it.

The author spouts off every idiotic talking point from the left with regards to SS. The author is flat out wrong on 80% of his article. He spouts off the same crap you do about 'minor tweeks' that could fix the system... but doesn't bother to detail them. Instead he goes into the normal left wingnut ranting about how Republicans want to destroy SS.
 
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