Democrat victories in traditionally blue states like New Jersey, New York, and California, achieved with narrower margins than in the 2024 presidential election, do not constitute a "Blue Wave."
This is more akin to a "dog bites man" story.
In New Jersey, for instance, Democrat Mikie Sherrill secured victory, but early county-level data shows every reporting area trending slightly more Republican than Kamala Harris's 2024 performance there, meaning Democrats won, but with a compressed margin compared to the prior cycle's benchmark.
Similarly, in Virginia (another blue-leaning state despite its purple tendencies), Abigail Spanberger's margin did not exceeded Kamala Harris's already-narrowed lead from 2020, per exit polling and county breakdowns.
New York City's mayoral race leaned on first-time immigrant voters in a deep-blue stronghold, without the statewide ripple effect of a wave.
Even in solidly blue California, where Proposition 50 passed to enable Democrat-favorable gerrymandering, the focus was on maintaining ground rather than expanding it. Polls had set Harris's 21-point 2024 margin as the bar, but results indicate Republicans narrowed gaps in suburban areas.
These patterns align with "thermostatic" voting against President Trump, but they fall short of blue wave territory because margins shrank, not swelled, and gains were confined to local dynamics like anti-Trump ads rather than a broader ideological tide.
Media and analysts across the spectrum echo this. Left-leaning outlets like CBS and ABC hailed Democrat "sweeps" as momentum for 2026 midterms, but caveated them as reflective of off-year referendums rather than a seismic shift.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
This is more akin to a "dog bites man" story.
In New Jersey, for instance, Democrat Mikie Sherrill secured victory, but early county-level data shows every reporting area trending slightly more Republican than Kamala Harris's 2024 performance there, meaning Democrats won, but with a compressed margin compared to the prior cycle's benchmark.
Similarly, in Virginia (another blue-leaning state despite its purple tendencies), Abigail Spanberger's margin did not exceeded Kamala Harris's already-narrowed lead from 2020, per exit polling and county breakdowns.
New York City's mayoral race leaned on first-time immigrant voters in a deep-blue stronghold, without the statewide ripple effect of a wave.
Even in solidly blue California, where Proposition 50 passed to enable Democrat-favorable gerrymandering, the focus was on maintaining ground rather than expanding it. Polls had set Harris's 21-point 2024 margin as the bar, but results indicate Republicans narrowed gaps in suburban areas.
These patterns align with "thermostatic" voting against President Trump, but they fall short of blue wave territory because margins shrank, not swelled, and gains were confined to local dynamics like anti-Trump ads rather than a broader ideological tide.
Media and analysts across the spectrum echo this. Left-leaning outlets like CBS and ABC hailed Democrat "sweeps" as momentum for 2026 midterms, but caveated them as reflective of off-year referendums rather than a seismic shift.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
