This is what makes this board fun. You read the economic news somewhere else, then you come here and get the political spin (and it is the same spin no matter who is in office).
You read the actual article and see that hiring was strong and that unemployment ticked up by ten basis points because about 500,000 people joined the labor force. If you are the Fed, the stronger job growth might support keeping rates where they are. There is still some softening though and July and August numbers were revised down, which could justify another cut.
Then you come to JPP and somehow it becomes anemic, horrible, and proof that everything is rough. It is how we do it here, haha.
Delayed Data Show Strong Hiring, but Offer Little Clarity for Fed
Job growth accelerated in the month heading into the government shutdown
The U.S. labor market defied expectations in September, adding 119,000 jobs
according to a report delayed nearly seven weeks by the government shutdown. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, the highest level in four years.
The Labor Department report leaves an already divided Federal Reserve with stale and somewhat inconclusive government data as the central bank heads into its next meeting in December.
The September numbers were eagerly anticipated and offer the first official picture of where the job market was as of two months ago. Yet they say little about how the economy is doing in this moment and where it may be headed.
This is a lingering effect of a
shutdown that began on Oct. 1, only ended last week and stopped collection and reporting of some of the most important data needed to assess issues like unemployment and consumer prices.
The seasonally adjusted increase of 119,000 jobs soared above the 50,000 gain economists polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting. It was the strongest in five months.
The gains were concentrated in industries that have continued to add jobs at a steady clip in recent months: healthcare and education, and leisure and hospitality.
Still, there were also signs of a rough summer for job seekers. August’s payrolls number was revised to a loss of 4,000 jobs, and July’s payrolls were revised slightly lower to a 72,000 gain. That meant employment in July and August combined was 33,000 lower than previously reported.
“The jobs market is still rather fragile, but this is one sign that maybe it’s not as ugly as markets had worried,” said
U.S. Bank chief economist Beth Ann Bovino. Regarding the unexpected September gain, “summer’s over, people leave the beaches and come back to work,” she said.
The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey from the jobs figures, rose slightly to the highest level since October 2021 as nearly half a million people joined the labor force
Separately, the Labor Department released updated weekly jobless claims that suggest layoffs didn’t rise sharply during the government shutdown. In the week through Nov. 15, 220,000 people newly filed for jobless benefits—broadly in line with the range that held for most of 2025.
But the report also showed that the number of continuing unemployment claims, a measure of the size of the unemployed population, rose by 28,000 to 1,974,000 in the week ended Nov. 8. That was the highest level since November 2021 and reflects a low-hire environment where it has been difficult for those workers who are laid off to find work again.
The latest data will likely
do little to resolve the debate at the Fed, where some policymakers, wary of inflation, want to leave rates on hold, while others are pushing for a rate cut in December as insurance against a labor-market deterioration.
Hawks can point to the bump up in job growth as a reason to postpone any further easing, while doves can focus on rise in the unemployment rate, as well as the general trend toward weaker job growth, as reasons to cut. Thursday’s report was the last official snapshot the Fed will see before the next rate-setting meeting in December. As a result of the shutdown, the Labor Department pushed back its release of the November jobs report to Dec. 16, the week after the rate decision. It will also release some October jobs data on that day.
“There’s no sign of a rapid deterioration in the American labor market that warrants a rate cut out of the Federal Reserve,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Thursday’s data point to “sustained modest growth in the economy and employment,” he added.
Interest-rate futures implied the odds of a quarter-point cut at the December meeting stood at about 40% following Thursday’s report, up from about 30% earlier.
The September jobs report was originally scheduled for release on Oct. 3, but the shutdown sent key workers at government statistical agencies home, causing significant delays for an array of reports.
Employers in September added jobs at a steady clip in retail, construction, healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and state and local government. They let go of workers in transportation and warehousing and temporary-help services. Those are often the first industries that pull back on hiring in a slowdown as households and businesses rein in spending.
The report showed some evidence of how the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and deportations
are changing the labor market, with native-born employment rising while the number of foreign-born workers fell. These figures aren’t seasonally adjusted and can be volatile.
Some signs of stress in the labor market remain higher than a year ago but also eased slightly in September. For example, the number of long-term unemployed who have been without a job for 27 weeks or more decreased to 1.8 million from 1.9 million the prior month.
There are more recent signs that the labor market remains unsettled and that consumers are on edge. Major companies including
Amazon.com and
Target recently said they
were cutting thousands of corporate jobs. Consumer sentiment dropped in early November on concerns about the shutdown’s negative economic impact, according to a survey by the University of Michigan. More than 70% of households said they expect unemployment to increase over the next year.
Still, available economic data and forecasts don’t suggest the economy is weakening meaningfully. Economists’ estimates point to solid growth in the third quarter. Sales of existing homes
rose to an eight-month high in October, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.
Big publicly traded companies have reported strong profit growth for the third quarter, with per-share earnings up nearly 17% from the same quarter last year for the S&P 500—the second-best showing in at least two years, according to data from
LSEG.
Companies also posted strong sales growth, of about 8% overall. Technology and healthcare companies reported the best performance for both measures, while energy and consumer staples companies lagged behind.
Still, some companies cautioned that consumers are increasingly bifurcated, with high-income households spending strongly while younger and lower-income consumers are under strain.
Walmart saw some pullback in spending from lower-income shoppers, especially near the end of the most recent quarter. Even so, the retailer
reported strong sales Thursday and raised its financial outlook for the full year as consumers flocked to its value and fast-shipping services ahead of the holiday season.
Earlier this week,
Home Depot reported
lower third-quarter profit and trimmed its full-year outlook, as economic uncertainty, high interest rates and a stagnant housing market prompted homeowners to scale back home improvements.
“Our customers tell us that they remain on the sidelines due to uncertainty and perhaps the hesitation to make larger financial commitments amid an uncertain economic environment,” Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said Tuesday.
usanews.com
www.reuters.com
nypost.com
