Yes, there has been a notable shift as Hispanics are increasingly moving away from the Democratic Party,
This movement is complex, involving both a gradual increase in Republican identification and a rise in political independence.
Key Trends
- Shrinking Democratic Advantage: While Democrats have historically held a strong majority of the Hispanic vote, their margin has decreased significantly in recent years.
- Republican Gains: Donald Trump made historic inroads with Hispanic voters in the 2024 presidential election, securing about 46% of the vote nationally according to CNN exit polls.
- Swing Back in Off-Year Elections: The shift is not necessarily permanent for all voters; recent 2025 off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia showed many of these voters swinging back to the Democratic candidates, suggesting a volatile and "up for grabs" demographic.
- Generational and Demographic Divides:
- Generational: Younger, U.S.-born Hispanics, further removed from the immigrant experience, are becoming more politically independent and less engaged with either party's traditional platforms.
- Regional/National Origin: Historically, Cuban Americans in Florida have leaned Republican, while Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans have favored Democrats. The shift rightward has become more pronounced in Mexican American communities in places like South Texas and California.
- Gender: In 2024, Hispanic men moved more towards the Republican party than Hispanic women, though some polls indicate a majority of men still voted for the Democratic candidate.