Iran War Watch

We Americans should have known that we were in trouble by what we did in Iran in 1953 says Wilkerson in Nima's conversation.

We lost this democracy the day JFK AT THE LATEST.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
There is the matter of a teaching contract.....

You might invite me to conversation.
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Let me help you. There are only 2 powers capable of making this into a world war. US and China. China is not going to march its army all the way thru India and Pakistan to get to Iran nor do they have any ships capable of getting there. Their entire strategy for combat against the US is to rely on massive land based missiles coming from their mainland which is not effective all the way in Iran.
 
tsuke11 said:
Let me help you. There are only 2 powers capable of making this into a world war. US and China. China is not going to march its army all the way thru India and Pakistan to get to Iran nor do they have any ships capable of getting there. Their entire strategy for combat against the US is to rely on massive land based missiles coming from their mainland which is not effective all the way in Iran.
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A great many people I listen to say that WW3 has already started and they have a pretty solid argument......but you know nothing about that do you sport.
 
tsuke11 said:
Let me help you. There are only 2 powers capable of making this into a world war. US and China. China is not going to march its army all the way thru India and Pakistan to get to Iran nor do they have any ships capable of getting there. Their entire strategy for combat against the US is to rely on massive land based missiles coming from their mainland which is not effective all the way in Iran.
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Let me help you. Here is a list of nations directly involved in Trump's war. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...now-involved-in-the-iran-conflict/ar-AA1XspYW Yesterday, I read there are 20.
 
Wanted to add some observations here.

1. Everyone is focusing too much on Tehran. Analysts use the rallies there in support of the new ayatollah as support for the regime. Historically speaking revolutions dont begin in the capital. Why? The capital is usually the most well guarded place and usually the richest area in the realm. It usually begins in the hinterlands. If a revolution were to happen I would expect it in the border areas first working inward. Most likely with the ethnic minorities like Azeris and Baluchs which Iran mistreats.

2. US war crimes in the school - Its one bungled sortie out of 1000s by now. So far there has only been one instance of hitting civilian infastructure and thats with the oil depots. If the US truly wanted to ruin Iran it would hit oil refineries, ports, and power plants. If the US wanted to scorch the earth it would destroy all dams and aquifiers.

3. Missile math - Defenses are never meant to last forever. A knight is not going to stand there and let a peasant stab him with a sword till he finds an opening in the armor. Defenses always get exhausted first. The math is not that they will get exhausted first its that you will kill the other guy before it gets exhausted.
 
tsuke11 said:
Wanted to add some observations here.

1. Everyone is focusing too much on Tehran. Analysts use the rallies there in support of the new ayatollah as support for the regime. Historically speaking revolutions dont begin in the capital. Why? The capital is usually the most well guarded place and usually the richest area in the realm. It usually begins in the hinterlands. If a revolution were to happen I would expect it in the border areas first working inward. Most likely with the ethnic minorities like Azeris and Baluchs which Iran mistreats.

2. US war crimes in the school - Its one bungled sortie out of 1000s by now. So far there has only been one instance of hitting civilian infastructure and thats with the oil depots. If the US truly wanted to ruin Iran it would hit oil refineries, ports, and power plants. If the US wanted to scorch the earth it would destroy all dams and aquifiers.

3. Missile math - Defenses are never meant to last forever. A knight is not going to stand there and let a peasant stab him with a sword till he finds an opening in the armor. Defenses always get exhausted first. The math is not that they will get exhausted first its that you will kill the other guy before it gets exhausted.
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On that third...

It's more a case of the ability of the defender to replace systems and such faster than they are destroyed. During WW 1, artillery duels took place almost daily. Yet, both sides were able to continually increase the number of guns in the field.

In WW 2, the Germans expanded their air defense systems across Germany in the face of increasing bombing. Those air defenses simply couldn't shoot down planes in sufficient numbers fast enough to overcome the rate the Allies were producing them. Of course, the Allies also paid attention to how those German defenses worked and continually came up with ways to make them less effective.


So, for Iran, it's a matter of how many missiles they can make and how fast versus how many are used or destroyed. At some point an equilibrium will be reached and it won't be zero missiles.

I'd also note that simply defending means you are already headed to defeat. If you can't go on the offensive effectively to take out your opponent you are just treading water until you eventually drown.
 
JUST IN: In a jaw-dropping development, the Iranian regime releases the explosive first statement from new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei:

Strait of Hormuz: SHUT DOWN FOREVER until the US begs.

We will NOT ignore the blood of our martyrs!

We are not an enemy of the countries around us

Only targeting American bases.. but bombs are raining on your neighbors anyway.

Close ALL US bases in the region, or we attack them ALL.

Calls for total Iranian unity


https://twitter.com/x/status/2032096327585448148
View: https://x.com/_MAGA_NEWS_/status/2032096327585448148
 

Richard

@ricwe123


Listening to the White House spokesperson, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that this war was started without a clue.Decisions seem to have been based on feelings from the President and negotiators who didn’t truly understand who they were dealing with.The whole performance screams incompetence, recklessness, and utter cluelessness.....
 
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Pepe Escobar

https://x.com/RealPepeEscobar
Pepe Escobar
https://x.com/RealPepeEscobar
@RealPepeEscobar


The New Hormuz Game : got permit, will travelThe most crucial chokepoint on the planet now works like this:On top: China. Free transit because bilateral deal struck with Iran last Thursday.Next: India and Bangladesh. They asked for a permit. Granted. Or maybe not - in the case of India. It's up to the IRGC to decide, not the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Way down: the collective "West". Denied. As in every tanker linked to US, Israel, or European interests is a legitimate target. At the bottom: everybody else. Uninsurable. And if they try to transit, will be struck as "hostile" and/or linked to the hostiles. As for the Jaishankar/Araghchi phone call, check Iran finesse in action in my latest column, 'How Russia and India approach the War on Iran'.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Richard
@ricwe123


Listening to the White House spokesperson, it’s hard to escape the conclusion that this war was started without a clue.Decisions seem to have been based on feelings from the President and negotiators who didn’t truly understand who they were dealing with.The whole performance screams incompetence, recklessness, and utter cluelessness.....
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Trump was clearly steered into this war by Rubio, Lindsey Graham and Bibi who convinced him this could be just like Venezuela where with one series of attacks they could replace current leadership and put in Trump puppets and he could declare a great victory.

You can see now Trump desperately looking at ways to TACO and get out of this while declaring victory and desperate for Iran to grab on to any one of them so he can get out.

But what Trump did not predict is Iran would go from a sun setting weaker leader to a more extreme, younger and stronger one, who just saw his entire family killed by the US and may have no desire to work any deal that benefits the US and is instead now floating what 'Terms of surrender' the US and others will have to meet if they want this war to end. Iran is now talking about what reparations need to look like for them to stop knowing the US cannot tolerate a period of long markets harm via keeping the Strait closed.

As i said in the other thread....


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Yup.

Iran had/has a very robust drone manufacturing sector that they certainly can reconstitute in a more under ground way to drive a war based economy going forward, if they need to. Similar to how Ukraine has focused on their own 'home made drone program' as a counter to Russia's conventional weapons.

Those drones can target and cause enough fear in the shipping lane that Shipping companies simply will not risk using the Strait.


Iran can easily pivot to making sea based attack drones if they decide that is where they want to focus their efforts.
 
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