The betting odds favor the Republican Clay Fuller with a small chance of Democrat Shawn Harris pulling an upset.
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Polymarket, an offshore prediction platform, shows nearly identical odds. As of Monday morning, Fuller was priced at about 96 percent, compared with roughly 4 percent for Harris, with more than $200,000 wagered on the outcome. In prediction market terms, those prices indicate strong confidence that Republican voters consolidate behind Fuller after a splintered first round.
While prediction markets are not polls, they are often cited by analysts as a reflection of collective expectations, particularly when conventional polling is absent.
Democrat Shawn Harris' chances of flipping Marjorie Taylor Green's old seat
Voters head to the polls Tuesday to elect the new representative for Georgia's 14th District after Greene resigned earlier this year.
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What the Prediction Markets Are Showing
On Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market, Republican candidate Clay Fuller is trading at roughly a 96–97 percent implied probability of winning the runoff, with Harris priced around 3–4 percent. The market has seen significant trading volume for a House special election, suggesting heightened attention to a race that would normally be considered a foregone conclusion.Polymarket, an offshore prediction platform, shows nearly identical odds. As of Monday morning, Fuller was priced at about 96 percent, compared with roughly 4 percent for Harris, with more than $200,000 wagered on the outcome. In prediction market terms, those prices indicate strong confidence that Republican voters consolidate behind Fuller after a splintered first round.
While prediction markets are not polls, they are often cited by analysts as a reflection of collective expectations, particularly when conventional polling is absent.