Far from calculated strategy, the US war on Iran exposed disarray, ideological extremism, and the erosion of its global credibility.
American foreign policy, at least as it is presented to the public, has long been predicated on the notion of
a hostile world full of evil, irrational actors who require occasional thumping with a big stick to keep them in check.
Iran has, for decades, held a special place in the rogues’ gallery of US enemies.
High off their string of unchallenged war crimes in Gaza, Lebanon, Venezuela, and Cuba, it is increasingly clear the initial assault that killed Iran's Supreme Leader would result in the collapse of any Iranian resistance.
Instead, Iran steadily applied pressure through a series of horizontal and vertical escalations, making support for the US costly.
Each passing week has revealed the extent of Trump’s failure to plan.
His trademark capriciousness, typically deployed to destabilize his opponents, has smacked both of desperation and market manipulation as of late.
He claimed, week after week, that the war was won.
His
threat that a “whole civilization [would] die” if Iran did not surrender was amusing, as we all knew that he knew that we knew he had been humiliated.
By that point, talk of "liberating the people of Iran" had long evaporated.
The Iranian people have rallied and their government has coalesced in the face of this existential threat, but the cracks in the MAGA coalition have never been more apparent.
The growing number of
disenchanted former true believers — Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and
Marjorie Taylor Greene — have all been taking shots at the president, now from outside the tent.
Alex Jones called for the president to be removed from office using the 25th Amendment.
Even among those who are supportive, there is no unifying logic underpinning the war. Instead, a pack of competing motivations is contributing to a spasmodic, faltering campaign.
Then there is whatever is happening with Pete Hegseth.
The “secretary of war” fancies himself something of a crusader of antiquity, tattooed with “Deus Vult” (God wills it), a massive
Jerusalem cross, and
kafir in Arabic. Hegseth’s confirmation was mired with
controversy surrounding his treatment of women and his penchant for drink, but it is his infusion of Christian nationalism into the US armed forces that has been the subject of scrutiny during the war against Iran.
Despite the relative recency of his religious awakening (many such cases), he has thrown himself into his role as a "warrior for God".
Long before he joined the administration, Hegseth has been psyching himself up for a confrontation with Iran and guiding Trump towards intervention.
In 2020,
he said, “I don’t care about Iranian cultural sites,” when it came to strikes on Iran.
Brooks Potteiger, Hegseth’s chosen spiritual advisor, reportedly told top brass in a sermon, “If our Lord is sovereign even over the sparrow’s fallings, you can be assured that he is sovereign over everything else that falls in this world, including Tomahawk and Minuteman missiles.” Presumably, this includes Tomahawks that fall on schoolgirls.
And yet, for all this bravado, the war is not going well for Hegseth and Trump.
Not even John Bolton is confident in the venture.
The net result is that Trump’s global sway has greatly diminished. Iran’s neighbors are likely wondering
how much protection alignment with the US affords them.
Europe is
staring down a cost-of-living crisis.
As gas prices surge past $4/gallon, Americans may have to start asking themselves whether the real theocratic threat to their way of living was at home the whole time.
