UAE to leave OPEC by May 1

tsuke11 said:
It looks like UAE is fully aligning with Israel. Aside from the obvious oil impacts id also be interested in the charity impacts of this too. Whenever Lebanon and other resistance countries need funds they usually come running to the GCC. If UAE freeze them out thats a major source of funds gone.

Gaza and Lebanon reconstruction look more unlikely now.
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The UAE has a pipeline out of the Persian Gulf, which is a valuable thing to have today. OPEC will try to get them to restrict oil through that pipeline, but UAE wants as much money for themselves as possible.
 
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said:
No, the UAE is not fully aligning with Israel.

The UAE is not offering unconditional or ideological alignment. It consistently criticizes Israeli actions it sees as undermining peace or violating international law:
  • The UAE has repeatedly called West Bank annexation or sovereignty moves a “red line” that would “severely undermine” the Accords and regional integration (e.g., statements in August–October 2025).


  • It has condemned Israeli military decisions in Gaza, settlement expansion, and specific incidents (such as the 2025 strike on a Hamas-related target in Doha, which prompted diplomatic rebukes and canceled Israeli participation in events).


  • The UAE supports a two-state solution, recognizes Palestine, and frames normalization as compatible with Palestinian rights—not a replacement for them.
By early 2026, Israeli media reported the Accords were “near collapse” due to eroded trust: Israeli extremist rhetoric, stalled joint projects (e.g., water-for-electricity deals), blocked investments, and perceived one-sided benefits. The UAE views Israeli policies as aggressive and provocative.
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The UAE certainly is not aligning themselves with Iran. Iran burned that bridge. :magagrin:
 
Walt said:
The UAE has a pipeline out of the Persian Gulf, which is a valuable thing to have today. OPEC will try to get them to restrict oil through that pipeline, but UAE wants as much money for themselves as possible.
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Impractical.

UAE's Opec exit seeks to hit Saudi Arabia where it hurts​


Diverging alignments over Israel and the war on Iran are driving a deeper rift, as Abu Dhabi uses oil policy to challenge the regional influence of the bloc's most powerful member.

The context and timing of the UAE's gambit suggest it is at least as politically motivated as it is economic.

First and foremost, the move should be seen as an attempt by the Emirati leadership to hit Saudi Arabia - the largest and most significant player in Opec - where it hurts.

By abandoning production quotas, the UAE will undermine Saudi Arabia.

The UAE's exit may also trigger a "domino effect" of additional departures, potentially leading to the breakdown of the entire cartel.

Importantly, following years of post-Arab Spring coordination and cooperation, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have split on a number of key regional issues, including Yemen, Sudan, Somalia and the US-Israel war on Iran.
 
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