Democrats overperform by double digits in Michigan win

Guno צְבִי

Guno צְבִי

We fight, We win, Am Yisrael Chai
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Newsweek
Democrats to Over-Perform by Double Digits in Michigan Win
Well, Michigan 35th Senate District has spoken,

Democrats looked on course to significantly overperform as they held onto control of the Michigan state Senate with victory in a special election on Tuesday night.

With around 95 percent of the vote counted, Democrat Chedrick Greene, a firefighter and Marine veteran, held a 58.9 percent (36,374 votes) to 39.4 percent (24,337 votes) lead over Republican attorney Jason Tunney, with Libertarian Ali Sledz trailing in third.
 
Special elections nationwide are being closely watched in the run up to the 2026 midterms in November. Midterms are often seen as the biggest test of a party’s popularity, as they occur midway through a president’s term. While special elections for state seats do not hold the same national significance as Congressional elections, they can offer some insight into how things may shape up nationally



Democrats have generally exceeded expectations in special elections since President Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025.


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“This is a win for affordability, for people who do everything right but still struggle because their wages aren’t keeping up with the solar prices,” Greene said in his victory speech.

“We’ll have a working class guy who has walked in their shoes fighting for them in Lansing. This is a win for safety, people who want to feel safe in their schools, in their neighborhoods. We’ll have a career public safety professional making decisions on policy aimed at stopping violence, drugs, theft and more.”

“Tonight, we fell short in the special election, but I’m incredibly proud of what this campaign accomplished together,” Tunney said in a statement. “We worked hard every single day to run the best campaign.”

Michigan is considered a battleground state, which is a state in an election where no single political party has a clear or consistent advantage, so both major parties compete heavily because the outcome is uncertain and could “swing” either way.


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Michigan’s 35th District is located about 100 miles north of Detroit and includes Saginaw, Bay City and Midland. Saginaw is the only Michigan county to back the winning presidential candidate in each of the last five elections.

“It’s really this microcosm of the Midwest, frankly,” McDonald Rivet said of the district she left when she entered the House in 2025. “Given how much it resembles so many other places across the country, we have to look at it and say, this is an indicator of how things are going to go in November.”
 
Guno צְבִי said:
AA1QFXA8.img
Newsweek
Democrats to Over-Perform by Double Digits in Michigan Win
Well, Michigan 35th Senate District has spoken,

Democrats looked on course to significantly overperform as they held onto control of the Michigan state Senate with victory in a special election on Tuesday night.

With around 95 percent of the vote counted, Democrat Chedrick Greene, a firefighter and Marine veteran, held a 58.9 percent (36,374 votes) to 39.4 percent (24,337 votes) lead over Republican attorney Jason Tunney, with Libertarian Ali Sledz trailing in third.
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Holding a seat they already had is not "overperforming"..
 
Every single midterm after a Presidential election everyone gesticulates over every single "special" election trying to read the tea leaves as to what it means for the subsequent midterms.

I have been paying attention to this stuff for years. Want to know what it means? It means jack shit. Nothing. It is like trying to give a grade to an NFL draft when none of them have even strapped a football helmet on yet.

This is what we know.

1) With rare exceptions, the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the House
2) The chambers have switched hands many times since the GOP wrested control from what used to be the democrat party in the 1990s
3) Regardless of the outcome, both parties say it spells doom for the other party and that they are in ascendency
4) Both parties always overreach
5) The American people slap them back down

The American people are fickle and both parties suck balls.

So you can have your circle jerk threads about this or that special election because it makes you feel good that Red Team or Blue Team is "winning", but in the end it doesn't mean jack squat.
 
Teflon Don said:
Every single midterm after a Presidential election everyone gesticulates over every single "special" election trying to read the tea leaves as to what it means for the subsequent midterms.

I have been paying attention to this stuff for years. Want to know what it means? It means jack shit. Nothing. It is like trying to give a grade to an NFL draft when none of them have even strapped a football helmet on yet.

This is what we know.

1) With rare exceptions, the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the House
2) The chambers have switched hands many times since the GOP wrested control from what used to be the democrat party in the 1990s
3) Regardless of the outcome, both parties say it spells doom for the other party and that they are in ascendency
4) Both parties always overreach
5) The American people slap them back down

The American people are fickle and both parties suck balls.

So you can have your circle jerk threads about this or that special election because it makes you feel good that Red Team or Blue Team is "winning", but in the end it doesn't mean jack squat.
Click to expand...
This from the dope who regularly posts so-called "approval ratings" that please him.
 
Teflon Don said:
Every single midterm after a Presidential election everyone gesticulates over every single "special" election trying to read the tea leaves as to what it means for the subsequent midterms.

I have been paying attention to this stuff for years. Want to know what it means? It means jack shit. Nothing. It is like trying to give a grade to an NFL draft when none of them have even strapped a football helmet on yet.

This is what we know.

1) With rare exceptions, the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the House
2) The chambers have switched hands many times since the GOP wrested control from what used to be the democrat party in the 1990s
3) Regardless of the outcome, both parties say it spells doom for the other party and that they are in ascendency
4) Both parties always overreach
5) The American people slap them back down

The American people are fickle and both parties suck balls.

So you can have your circle jerk threads about this or that special election because it makes you feel good that Red Team or Blue Team is "winning", but in the end it doesn't mean jack squat.
Click to expand...

1) ‘The party in the White House usually loses seats’ — TRUE (with exceptions)​

Historical data from the Brookings Institution, Pew Research, and the U.S. House Clerk show:

  • Since WWII, the president’s party has lost House seats in 17 of 20 midterms.
  • Exceptions: 1998 (Clinton) and 2002 (Bush), both driven by unusual national conditions.
So yes — this pattern is real.


2) ‘Both parties overreach and get slapped down’ — PARTLY TRUE, but vague​

There is a recurring pattern where:

  • A party wins unified control
  • Pushes ambitious legislation
  • Faces backlash in the next midterm
Political scientists call this “thermostatic public opinion” — voters tend to correct whichever party is overreaching.But it’s not universal, and the degree varies by era.


3) ‘Chambers have switched hands many times since the 1990s’ — TRUE​

Since 1994:

  • House flipped: 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018, 2022
  • Senate flipped: 2001 (briefly), 2002, 2006, 2014, 2020
So yes — volatility is a feature of the modern era.


❌​

4) ‘Special elections mean jack squat’ — NOT TRUE​

Political scientists and election analysts (e.g., FiveThirtyEight, Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball) consistently find:

  • Special elections do correlate with midterm outcomes when aggregated.
  • The key metric is partisan lean vs. expected baseline, not raw wins.
  • Large overperformance in specials has historically predicted the direction of midterm swings.
Examples:

  • 2017–2018 specials showed a large Democratic overperformance → Democrats gained 40 House seats.
  • 2009–2010 specials showed GOP overperformance → Republicans gained 63 seats.
  • 2023–2024 specials showed Democratic overperformance → matched by strong Dem results in statewide races.
Special elections aren’t perfect predictors, but they are not meaningless.


5) ‘Both parties suck balls’ — Opinion, not fact​

This is just rhetorical venting, not a factual claim.


🎯​

  • ✔️ The president’s party usually loses midterm seats.
  • ✔️ Congress has flipped control multiple times since the 1990s.
  • ✔️ Voter backlash cycles are real but not universal.
  • ❌ Special elections are not meaningless; aggregated overperformance has historically predicted midterm direction.
  • ❌ The “means nothing” framing contradicts decades of election‑analysis data.
 
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