I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th

[Jake Starkey]

Want to lose money?

Listen to Lionfish's advice.

 

[Lionfish]

 

[gfm7175]

There are two dangers, and one bright spot for the S&P 500.

Danger number one is that about two months of $130 oil would throw the US into a recession. Even if trump and Iran are able to open the Strait of Hormuz, the warm up time would get it to $130 for at least a month(not two months, but still)... And that is assuming smooth sailing from here on out.

Danger number one has never come to fruition. Oil during this time has never reached $130, not even for a split moment. WTI crude is currently at $93.

My new investment is in call options on BNO and GUSH. Those are oil based ETF's, which I am using options to say will go up. If oil does go to $130, I should make a ton of money(to use an technical term for it ). They are all dated 100 to 150 days from now, so I will hopefully catch that.

But that is just a guess at this point.

It's clear to me that you haven't learned from last time. I believe that you are now making the same mistake that you made with your original post in this thread. IBDaMann tried to warn you about it, but you didn't take his advice.

If you ever get a 50/50 chance to make 20 times your money, take it. But do not over invest in it.

Where are you getting "50/50" from?

Everyone is more scared now,

Every leftist is NOT everyone.

so the payouts are not as good, but there still are some real risks there. A 50/50 chance of a 10 times payout is still nice.

Where are you getting "50/50" from?

What is your investment strategy for the near to medium future?

Nothing different than what it is now.

 

[IBDaMann]

USAID stands out, but there have been many, many other examples.

USAID is not an example that supports your argument. USAID is an example of execution waste, that falls under Executive power. Congress can authorize money for programs and the President can ensure that waste is eliminated.

 

[Walt]

Congress can authorize money for programs and the President can ensure that waste is eliminated.

Not what the Constitution says, but whatever.

 

[IBDaMann]

Over time I am making more than I am losing ...

... so say all gamblers who are losing. Everyone will know that you have hit rock bottom when you start telling everyone that you "basically broke even."

My new investment is in call options on BNO and GUSH. Those are oil based ETF's, which I am using options to say will go up.

Why did you do this? You know the price of oil will be decreasing very rapidly, very soon.

If oil does go to $130, I should make a ton of money

How much money have you lost? i.e. how much did you spend on the options?

Everyone is more scared now,

Tell me, who is scared of imminent lowering oil prices?

I have not come anywhere close to losing all my money.

Well this is certainly something to brag about. Congrats!

But if you do think I am losing all my money, feel free to invest in the opposite direction of me. Good luck.

I will be investing counter to you every time I fill up my gas tank.

 

[IBDaMann]

Not what the Constitution says, but whatever.

Yes, it absolutely is what the Constitution reads, i.e.

Article. II.
Section. 1.
The executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America.

I'm assuming you know what the executive power is. None of it is vested in anybody else.



Article. I.
Section. 9.
No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law;

Ergo, it is unconstitutional for the President to draw money from the Treasury for unauthorized purposes, but it is not unconstitutional for the President to not draw money from the Treasury. How did you ever come to misunderstand that it was somehow unconstitutional for the President to not draw money from the Treasury?

 

[Walt]

I will be investing counter to you every time I fill up my gas tank.

If you think gasoline prices are coming down soon, the opposite of my belief, then you would want to put off filling your tank for as long as possible.

Article. I.
Section. 9.
No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law;

trump does not have the right to set appropriations, and we all know it.

If he wants to reappropriate money, he has to get Congress to do it.

 

[IBDaMann]

If you think gasoline prices are coming down soon, the opposite of my belief, then you would want to put off filling your tank for as long as possible.

Correct. That is what I am doing.

trump does not have the right to set appropriations,

You just pivoted. Read what I wrote. Stay on topic.

You still need to admit publicly that it is not unconstitutional for the President to not draw funds from the Treasury, and that you erred egregiously when you claimed Trump's not drawing funds from the Treasury was unconstitutional.

You also need to admit publicly that the Constitution does, in fact, read exactly what I said it did, and that you were wrong for claiming otherwise.

In fact, you need to make a public admission that your track record is abysmal, and that to the best of your knowledge, I have not made any errors of which you are aware.

Now would be a good time.

 

[gfm7175]

UPDATE: The S&P 500 just closed at 7,365.12 yesterday.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th, and I put my money where my mouth is. I have bought a bunch of SPY puts centering around a strike price of $500, all expiring on September 30th. If the S&P goes down to around 4,000, I will make quite a bit of money.

If the S&P 500 stays above 5,000, then you can laugh at me

 

[Jake Starkey]

I hope it does not lose 35%, but I will not for or against it.

With the Orange Dementiac at the WH, anything is possible.

 

[IBDaMann]

UPDATE: The S&P 500 just closed at 7,365.12 yesterday.

Help me out a bit; I'm a little slow at math. Is the S&P 500 well under 5000 yet?

 

[goat]

UPDATE: The S&P 500 just closed at 7,365.12 yesterday.

The S&P is loaded with zombies that will never turn a profit. Explain to the class how and why it's up.

 

[Jake Starkey]

S&P is up because the Obama laws governing banking and loans.

Once Trump is gone, the other Fed governors will force Warsh to resign.

 

[Into the Night]

I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th, and I put my money where my mouth is. I have bought a bunch of SPY puts centering around a strike price of $500, all expiring on September 30th. If the S&P goes down to around 4,000, I will make quite a bit of money.

If the S&P 500 stays above 5,000, then you can laugh at me

A gamblin' man!

 

[Into the Night]

Dear Ms. Edwina, Walt has been using the same account for 5 years. You, OTOH, are the Sock Puppet master, sweetcheeks.

As for the economy, Trump is single-handedly fucking it up while the MAGAt Congress sits on their thumbs.

You can't blame your socks on anybody else, Sybil.
MAGAt is not a word.

What is 'fucked up in the economy'?

 

[Into the Night]

If you think gasoline prices are coming down soon, the opposite of my belief, then you would want to put off filling your tank for as long as possible.

Putting gasoline into your car is not an investment, Wally.

trump does not have the right to set appropriations, and we all know it.

If he wants to reappropriate money, he has to get Congress to do it.

And they have, Wally.

 

[Into the Night]

The S&P is loaded with zombies that will never turn a profit. Explain to the class how and why it's up.

Corporations are not zombies, goat.

 

[IBDaMann]

S&P is up because the Obama laws governing banking and loans.

What legislation did Obama enact? Why wasn't the S&P 500 up over 7,000 during the Obama administration? Was the Obama legislation set to turn on when Trump became President?

Thank you for reminding me that the Executive branch enacts legislation, and not the Legislative branch.