2016 Election electoral vote predictions

[tsuke]

Pennsylvania is way closer than Michigan. Michigan has never been in play, and the only thing which would suggest otherwise is that Crooked Hillary lost it to Bernmaster Sandy in the primary.

also show me your map kthx

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

Aw, too bad. The Philly transit strike just ended. I know some on the right were really counting on that.

Between that & Comey's announcement yesterday, Clinton has all the momentum heading into tomorrow.

 

[tsuke]

Aw, too bad. The Philly transit strike just ended. I know some on the right were really counting on that.

Between that & Comey's announcement yesterday, Clinton has all the momentum heading into tomorrow.

well it was only a frutioutous event sent by allah anyway. Maybe they will strike again tomorrow lol

 

[Mott the Hoople]

but will Hilliary ever sing?.....

I hope like hell not.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Seriously?

Seriously and I wasn't the only one that noticed it. In fact it was someone else commented about it and, with nothing particularly better to do at the moment, I started counting. Stopped counting at 500 hundred people and my count was ~ 300 women to 200 men.

 

[Teflon Don]

Aw, too bad. The Philly transit strike just ended. I know some on the right were really counting on that.

Between that & Comey's announcement yesterday, Clinton has all the momentum heading into tomorrow.

Really? Ok sparky. You seem awful happy for someone who claims not to support Hillary

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

Really? Ok sparky. You seem awful happy for someone who claims not to support Hillary

Once again, I'll take no lectures from a guy who:
1) Said he wasn't voting Trump
2) Then said he was voting Trump, but reluctantly
3) Then became Trump's biggest cheerleader on JPP

I'm not voting Hillary. But man, do I ever want Trump to lose. Quite honestly, I can't listen to him for 4 more years.

But that's beside the point. Please spare me your glaring hypocrisy.

 

[tsuke]

Once again, I'll take no lectures from a guy who:
1) Said he wasn't voting Trump
2) Then said he was voting Trump, but reluctantly
3) Then became Trump's biggest cheerleader on JPP

I'm not voting Hillary. But man, do I ever want Trump to lose. Quite honestly, I can't listen to him for 4 more years.

But that's beside the point. Please spare me your glaring hypocrisy.

i dispute #3. thats my title

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

I'm feeling a lot more confident now than I was when I was panicking. Silver's model is the most bullish on Trump anyway, by far. The betting markets have Hillary at 90%. Silver's model also doesn't take into account early voting data, which would pretty much make Nevada a certainty for Clinton. I think Silver just decided to hugely hedge his bets, he was traumatized by so badly mispredicting Trump in the primaries and is overcompensating by making his chances too good.

 

[Jarod]

I'm feeling a lot more confident now than I was when I was panicking. Silver's model is the most bullish on Trump anyway, by far. The betting markets have Hillary at 90%. Silver's model also doesn't take into account early voting data, which would pretty much make Nevada a certainty for Clinton. I think Silver just decided to hugely hedge his bets, he was traumatized by so badly mispredicting Trump in the primaries and is overcompensating by making his chances too good.

Yup

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Final prediction:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/w7V7P/

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Betting markets were wrong on Brexit, mind you. But they were like 60% towards Brexit not happening. While they're 90% towards Clinton winning.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Pennsylvania is way closer than Michigan. Michigan has never been in play, and the only thing which would suggest otherwise is that Crooked Hillary lost it to Bernmaster Sandy in the primary.

If Trump wins Michigan it's a blowout. I don't get Tsuke's cute little maps where Trump barely pulls through but somehow wins Michigan in the process.

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

I'm feeling a lot more confident now than I was when I was panicking. Silver's model is the most bullish on Trump anyway, by far. The betting markets have Hillary at 90%. Silver's model also doesn't take into account early voting data, which would pretty much make Nevada a certainty for Clinton. I think Silver just decided to hugely hedge his bets, he was traumatized by so badly mispredicting Trump in the primaries and is overcompensating by making his chances too good.

his model DOES take into account voting data, in as so far as it is already accounted for in likely voter polls. Silver explained that his model does take into account the early voting in a manner of speaking, but i forgot which article it was

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

I call this map "Poor Illinois":

http://www.270towin.com/maps/1XwRm

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

i dont really see him losing florida but winning pa. are you just randomly posting voter maps?

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

i dont really see him losing florida but winning pa. are you just randomly posting voter maps?

I fucked up and just reposted Tsuke's map. I edited it and the correct one is there now.

 

[Jarod]

Final prediction:

Nope, Trump does not win Michigan or Pennsylvania.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

i dont really see him losing florida but winning pa. are you just randomly posting voter maps?

I actually criticized that map earlier in the thread. Definitely wouldn't be my prediction.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Nope, Trump does not lose Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Uhh, he probably does.