2016 Election electoral vote predictions

[PostmodernProphet]

Maybe she thinks she has Nevada in the bag and that's why she's not campaigning there.

then she's making a serious mistake......if PA is threatended, NV is beyond recovery.......

 

[tsuke]

actually the info im getting for nevada sux. removing it from the trump column. Florida is looking promising though.

 

[PostmodernProphet]

actually the info im getting for nevada sux. removing it from the trump column. Florida is looking promising though.

RCP disagrees with you

Poll Date Sample MoE
Trump (R)
Clinton (D)
Johnson (L)
Spread
RCP Average 10/26 - 11/1 -- -- 46.0 44.0 4.0 Trump +2.0
8 News NOW - Las Vegas 10/28 - 11/1 600 LV 4.0 45 45 4 Tie
CNN/ORC 10/27 - 11/1 790 LV 3.5 49 43 5 Trump +6
Remington Research (R) 10/30 - 10/30 1176 LV 2.9 48 44 4 Trump +4
Emerson* 10/26 - 10/27 550 LV 4.1 42 44 3 Clinton +2

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

It's a real tribute to how the public views Trump that the FBI letter didn't sink Hillary.

Yesterday & today's polls look very good for her. I think she gets FL and breaks 300.

 

[tsuke]

It's a real tribute to how the public views Trump that the FBI letter didn't sink Hillary.

Yesterday & today's polls look very good for her. I think she gets FL and breaks 300.

trump is showing romneylike numbers in nevada so bleh.

Trump is showing significantly better numbers in florida though.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

trump is showing romneylike numbers in nevada so bleh.

Trump is showing significantly better numbers in florida though.

What are you seeing for FL?

RCP has 5 recent polls. Hillary is leading in 4: +1, +2, +3 and +4. Trump has +4 in Remington, which appears to be an outlier in other states and FL. Not sure what methodology they use.

And Trump really needs to be up about 2%, because Hillary has a huge advantage in the ground game there. Twice as many field offices and volunteers.

 

[tsuke]

What are you seeing for FL?

RCP has 5 recent polls. Hillary is leading in 4: +1, +2, +3 and +4. Trump has +4 in Remington, which appears to be an outlier in other states and FL. Not sure what methodology they use.

And Trump really needs to be up about 2%, because Hillary has a huge advantage in the ground game there. Twice as many field offices and volunteers.

ohh im looking at the ballots

https://web.archive.org/web/2016103...eports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

according to politico at nov 1 last time obama had a 3% lead at this point in time in democrat ballots cast. RIght now its nearly equal with a negligible republican lead.

 

[tsuke]

Voted Vote-by-Mail 821,147 r 755,712 d

Voted Early 629,613 r 671,602 d


so like a lead of 20k for r

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Hillary Clinton had a good morning. Then a stream of polls came in which sunk her chances like 5% over a few hours.

 

[tsuke]

Hillary Clinton had a good morning. Then a stream of polls came in which sunk her chances like 5% over a few hours.

will u rise up?

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

Hillary Clinton had a good morning. Then a stream of polls came in which sunk her chances like 5% over a few hours.

What polls are you looking at? All of the new polls on RCP today look pretty good. Up in MI, WI, VA. A few general polls that are up - Reuters has her +7, ABC at +3 and IBD at +1. Only LA Times looks bad for her, but that one always does.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

538

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

Polls came out showing him up in NH as well as tied in Pennsylvania. As well there were a number of unusually strong polls in red states (which 538 assumes are correlated with the national average, and adjusts accordingly).

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Now a poll in Michigan (which is very poorly polled) showing Clinton only ahead by 2.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

At least its seesawing now, instead of an endless barrage of bad news.

 

[tsuke]

At least its seesawing now, instead of an endless barrage of bad news.

obama + clinton colluding with senators to block bills that would inspire bernies movement is not bad?

 

[PostmodernProphet]

ohh im looking at the ballots

https://web.archive.org/web/2016103...eports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

according to politico at nov 1 last time obama had a 3% lead at this point in time in democrat ballots cast. RIght now its nearly equal with a negligible republican lead.

????.....with what, 1/10th of 1% of ballots counted?......

 

[PostmodernProphet]

What polls are you looking at? All of the new polls on RCP today look pretty good. Up in MI, WI, VA. A few general polls that are up - Reuters has her +7, ABC at +3 and IBD at +1. Only LA Times looks bad for her, but that one always does.

Reuters is obviously the outlier......other than that they look pretty much like an average of +1.....

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein FOX News Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +2

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein ABC/Wash Post Tracking Clinton 47, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Clinton +4

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Tracking Clinton 43, Trump 47 Trump +4

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Tracking Clinton 44, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 2 Tie

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 44, Trump 44, Johnson 4, Stein 1 Tie

 

[Jarod]

Of all the polls I've seen, it looks to me like Clinton is up 3

 

[PostmodernProphet]

Of all the polls I've seen, it looks to me like Clinton is up 3

why?......is it because you haven't seen the polls I linked in the previous post from RCP?......

I'm pretty sure if Clinton was up by 3 in all the polls, RCP wouldn't say the average of all the polls is 1.6......
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

or if you're still just talking Florida, 1.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html