2020 prediction from professor who called every election since 1984

I wonder if anything will happen between now and November......

Trump will rush a vaccine to market. If he promises one by October, then he can stretch its effectiveness (or lack of it) to Election Day. People will get their shots and be told to give it 2-4 weeks. The upsurge in hope may cause Trump to take the lead in the polls. Then the body count starts rising again, it'll be too late; Trump will have been reelected.

Good plan?
 
Hello Dutch Uncle,

Excellent track record. I like his "13 keys".

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-go...-things-predicted-trumps-win/?ftag=YHF4eb9d17
Lichtman says his 13 keys to predicting the results of the presidential election are simply ways of “mathematically and specifically” measuring that performance. They are: (1) incumbent-party mandate, (2) incumbency, (3) third party, (4) short-term economy, (5) long-term economy, (6) nomination contest, (7) policy change, (8) scandal, (9) social unrest, (10) foreign or military success, (11) foreign or military failure, (12) incumbent charisma, and (13) challenge charisma.

Fascinating.
 
Hello Dutch Uncle,

Excellent track record. I like his "13 keys".

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-go...-things-predicted-trumps-win/?ftag=YHF4eb9d17
Lichtman says his 13 keys to predicting the results of the presidential election are simply ways of “mathematically and specifically” measuring that performance. They are: (1) incumbent-party mandate, (2) incumbency, (3) third party, (4) short-term economy, (5) long-term economy, (6) nomination contest, (7) policy change, (8) scandal, (9) social unrest, (10) foreign or military success, (11) foreign or military failure, (12) incumbent charisma, and (13) challenge charisma.

(14) Handling of a major crisis.
 
Hello Althea,

I'd argue that they knew who trump was in '16, but voted for the lies about his policies and issues. I've always said that the market was way up under trump, but the economy was pretty steady for the last 10 years. trumpkins disagreed. Now we have a market that has recovered to a great extent, but the economy is in serious trouble. Not only because of Covid, but trump's foreign/trade policies. A perfect illustration of the difference between the market and the economy.


If Covid didn't happen, and the economy continued along the path it was on, he would get re elected. Despite kids in cages. Despite his overtly racist pledges to 'protect the suburbs'.

I think Gary Hart was the last candidate that suffered character issues. Perhaps Edwards a few years ago.

Astute observations.

The standard MO for a Republican campaign strategy is not to champion the pluses of their candidate but to trash the opposition.

Now they have to deal with the fact that the reputation of their own candidate is trashed.
 
Trump Virus.
Trump Economy.
Trump Social Unrest.

Yeah, no shit.

China virus.

Trump economy improving...countries all over the world suffering due to the Chinese virus that China failed to control.

The “unrest” (anarchy) is being committed by BLM and ANTIFA.
 
Possible, but it's more likely I'm going to lose a chunk of cash for betting on Trump. Trump was winning before the COVID crisis. Trump's bungling of the US response is what is going to cost him the election. RWers are screaming about "Hidin' Biden" but Biden is just playing it cool since all he has to do is let the body count tick up to 200,000 and watch Trump stick his own foot in his mouth daily.

Maybe if Trump ordered a bottle of Hydroxychloroquine to every family in America he could get his numbers back up.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html


4a8jon.jpg

Order from chaos..... ;)

Your money is safe.
 
Hello Althea,



Astute observations.

The standard MO for a Republican campaign strategy is not to champion the pluses of their candidate but to trash the opposition.

Now they have to deal with the fact that the reputation of their own candidate is trashed.
Republicans do love to promise tax cuts and anti abortion legislation. Aside from that, they concoct fear tactics aimed at increased military spending. They have no other platforms. They do indeed opt to attack the opposition, especially this Republican POTUS. McCain was a bit more of a statesman, but he let Palin play the moron before the public.
 
Possible, but it's more likely I'm going to lose a chunk of cash for betting on Trump. Trump was winning before the COVID crisis. Trump's bungling of the US response is what is going to cost him the election. RWers are screaming about "Hidin' Biden" but Biden is just playing it cool since all he has to do is let the body count tick up to 200,000 and watch Trump stick his own foot in his mouth daily.

Maybe if Trump ordered a bottle of Hydroxychloroquine to every family in America he could get his numbers back up.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html


4a8jon.jpg
Have you begun to wonder why his writers don't spell the tough words phonetically?

He's a moron. Yo sem it tee would have helped. Also Tie land.

This is embarrassing
 
Have you begun to wonder why his writers don't spell the tough words phonetically?

He's a moron. Yo sem it tee would have helped. Also Tie land.

This is embarrassing
ROFLMAO! No, I hadn't but now that you mention it........... :D

Agreed on moron but Rex Tillerson put it most correctly: Trump is fucking moron.
 
Will you be explaining that any time soon??

will Biden?.......haven't you been watching the news?.....

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/07/900147716/biden-backtracks-comments-contrasting-diversity-in-black-and-latino-communities

"By the way, what you all know but most people don't know, unlike the African American community with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community with incredibly different attitudes about different things.
 
Have you begun to wonder why his writers don't spell the tough words phonetically?

He's a moron. Yo sem it tee would have helped. Also Tie land.

This is embarrassing

They really should do that along with the kindergarten sized grafts they give him.

Trump: See these really pretty bars in really nice colors, they mean something important.
 
His mocking Biden, who had to clarify his remarks. Joe will have to do a lot of that, he’s Joe.

in some ways it's almost sad that Joe is destined to lose......it would be fun spending a couple of years making fun of him here.......the problem is who his VP will be who has to take over for him in 2022.....
 
in some ways it's almost sad that Joe is destined to lose......it would be fun spending a couple of years making fun of him here.......the problem is who his VP will be who has to take over for him in 2022.....

That sounds like a money bet offer. Care to make one?

I tend to agree that Biden may not finish out his first term but that also applies to Trump for the same reason if he's reelected. Personally, I'd be a lot happier if Trump dropped out now leaving Pence on the ballot. Mike Pence, IMO, would be a vast improvement as President than anyone on the ballot.
 
Will you be explaining that any time soon??

Don't hold your breath. All he has is a sound bite of about a sound bite....plus he'd have to put it in context and that doesn't work for him so, no, don't expect an explanation.

Here's the actual statement: What you all know but most people don't know, unlike the African American community with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community with incredibly different attitudes about different things," Biden said in that interview. "You go to Florida, you find a very different attitude about immigration in certain places than you do when you're in Arizona. So it's a very different, a very diverse community."

The context: https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/06/politics/joe-biden-clarifies-diverse/index.html
 
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