2024 Specific Apolitical Predictions Thread... (for you psychotics)..

Damocles

Damocles

Accedo!
Staff member
(or is that psychics?)

Anyway. I'll take the first foray...

Caren Marsh Doll (born 1919, she was Judy Garland's stand in during filming of the Wizard of Oz)... will die this year.
 
Damocles said:
Nobody willing to go out on a limb and predict something that isn't political for this year?
Click to expand...

I don't know if it's political or not, but I suspect there's going to be a recession or worse in the U.S. in 2024. Here's an article from February from Business Insider that also believes that a U.S. recession this year is very likely:

The US now has an 85% chance of recession in 2024, the highest probability since the Great Financial Crisis, economist David Rosenberg says | Business Insider

A little more digging and I found an article with the same general theme from Business Insider published -today-:

Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says | Business Insider

From the last linked article:

**
"The simple fact is that record highs in the equity market have buoyed the economic narrative. Yet despite one or two key data points coming in surprisingly robust — particularly non-farm payrolls and GDP — much else has looked frail," Edwards said in a note on Wednesday. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Edwards was among the strategists who foresaw the dot-com crash in the early 2000s and the bursting of the bubble that kicked off the Great Financial Crisis.
**

There's also Warren Buffet's cashing in of a lot of his stocks as detailed in the following article from the end of February:

Warren Buffett's $168 billion cash pile signals he expects stocks to slide and a recession to strike, says top economist Steve Hanke | Business Insider
 
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Phoenyx said:
I don't know if it's political or not, but I suspect there's going to be a recession or worse in the U.S. in 2024. Here's an article from February from Business Insider that also believes that a U.S. recession this year is very likely:

The US now has an 85% chance of recession in 2024, the highest probability since the Great Financial Crisis, economist David Rosenberg says | Business Insider

A little more digging and I found an article with the same general theme from Business Insider published -today-:

Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says | Business Insider

From the last linked article:

**
"The simple fact is that record highs in the equity market have buoyed the economic narrative. Yet despite one or two key data points coming in surprisingly robust — particularly non-farm payrolls and GDP — much else has looked frail," Edwards said in a note on Wednesday. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Edwards was among the strategists who foresaw the dot-com crash in the early 2000s and the bursting of the bubble that kicked off the Great Financial Crisis.
**

There's also Warren Buffet's cashing in of a lot of his stocks as detailed in the following article from the end of February:

Warren Buffett's $168 billion cash pile signals he expects stocks to slide and a recession to strike, says top economist Steve Hanke | Business Insider
Click to expand...
The charts project the Dow headed below 20,000. That's a 50% drop.
ShadowStats shows that unemployment hasn't dropped below 20% since 2008, or around 16 years.
Tech has already announced big layoffs for 2024.
This is not your typical correction. We're looking at near Great Recession unemployment and food prices that most people can't afford.

When Ben Bernanke was asked why banks are buying up all the gold at $2000 an oz, he said they're foolish because gold is worthless. What is Bernanke trying to hide?
 
goat said:
The charts project the Dow headed below 20,000. That's a 50% drop.
ShadowStats shows that unemployment hasn't dropped below 20% since 2008, or around 16 years.
Tech has already announced big layoffs for 2024.
This is not your typical correction. We're looking at near Great Recession unemployment and food prices that most people can't afford.

When Ben Bernanke was asked why banks are buying up all the gold at $2000 an oz, he said they're foolish because gold is worthless. What is Bernanke trying to hide?
Click to expand...

Did he really say gold is worthless? That makes no sense at all. I suspect that Gold's held high value for as long as recorded history at the least. The main problem with gold is the difficulty in transporting it over long distances, but then that's what gold based currencies are for (or the modern wall street equivalent).

I like the idea of cryptos, but I think one of the fundamental weaknesses is that what gives them value is pretty much just their capabilities. If a better crypto comes along, an older, not quite so good crypto could lose great value overnight. Clearly, there's more at play than -just- capabilities. I think that Bitcoin is a good example of this. It's slow to move and fairly costly, especially for small transactions. But it's still king of the cryptos in terms of crypto market share. I suspect a lot of it has to do with name recognition and the inroads it's made in a lot of places. For a long time, I've suspected that the runner up, Ethereum, may usurp Bitcoin. It's faster to move and a lot cheaper too and in terms of name recognition, it's second only to Bitcoin itself. Also only second to Bitcoin in terms of ease of transfering to and from fiat currencies.
 
Phoenyx said:
Did he really say gold is worthless? That makes no sense at all. I suspect that Gold's held high value for as long as recorded history at the least. The main problem with gold is the difficulty in transporting it over long distances, but then that's what gold based currencies are for (or the modern wall street equivalent).

I like the idea of cryptos, but I think one of the fundamental weaknesses is that what gives them value is pretty much just their capabilities. If a better crypto comes along, an older, not quite so good crypto could lose great value overnight. Clearly, there's more at play than -just- capabilities. I think that Bitcoin is a good example of this. It's slow to move and fairly costly, especially for small transactions. But it's still king of the cryptos in terms of crypto market share. I suspect a lot of it has to do with name recognition and the inroads it's made in a lot of places. For a long time, I've suspected that the runner up, Ethereum, may usurp Bitcoin. It's faster to move and a lot cheaper too and in terms of name recognition, it's second only to Bitcoin itself. Also only second to Bitcoin in terms of ease of transfering to and from fiat currencies.
Click to expand...
If you follow gold, the US is notorious for not giving countries back all their gold when they ask for it. Germany is a good example; the US only gave them 40% of what is being held by the US. No one trust the US, World Bank or IMF. Crypto was created out of necessity.

Anyone holding physical gold and crypto should be alright. That's why what Bernanke said made no sense to anyone. I think he was trying to hide the fact that the dollar is in trouble. BRICS doubled in membership this year and it's possible they'll double again next year. Six G20 countries also belong to BRICS. How's that for hedging their bets?

The world is moving away from the dollar. That can't be good for our economy.
 
goat said:
Phoenyx said:
Did he really say gold is worthless? That makes no sense at all. I suspect that Gold's held high value for as long as recorded history at the least. The main problem with gold is the difficulty in transporting it over long distances, but then that's what gold based currencies are for (or the modern wall street equivalent).

I like the idea of cryptos, but I think one of the fundamental weaknesses is that what gives them value is pretty much just their capabilities. If a better crypto comes along, an older, not quite so good crypto could lose great value overnight. Clearly, there's more at play than -just- capabilities. I think that Bitcoin is a good example of this. It's slow to move and fairly costly, especially for small transactions. But it's still king of the cryptos in terms of crypto market share. I suspect a lot of it has to do with name recognition and the inroads it's made in a lot of places. For a long time, I've suspected that the runner up, Ethereum, may usurp Bitcoin. It's faster to move and a lot cheaper too and in terms of name recognition, it's second only to Bitcoin itself. Also only second to Bitcoin in terms of ease of transfering to and from fiat currencies.
Click to expand...

If you follow gold, the US is notorious for not giving countries back all their gold when they ask for it. Germany is a good example; the US only gave them 40% of what is being held by the US. No one trust the US, World Bank or IMF.
Click to expand...

Except the people running them I imagine :-p.

goat said:
Crypto was created out of necessity.

Anyone holding physical gold and crypto should be alright.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't go -that- far- in times of true scarcity, what people will want is arable land. That being said, barring serious emergencies, gold and some cryptos are pretty much immune to excessive inflation due to their scarcity, so that helps them retain good value.

goat said:
That's why what Bernanke said made no sense to anyone. I think he was trying to hide the fact that the dollar is in trouble. BRICS doubled in membership this year and it's possible they'll double again next year. Six G20 countries also belong to BRICS. How's that for hedging their bets?
Click to expand...

Definitely the way to go.

goat said:
The world is moving away from the dollar. That can't be good for our economy.
Click to expand...

Agreed. The irony is that the U.S. has greatly accelerated this process by doing things like slapping so many sanctions on Russia and putting little if any effort into diplomatic solutions with China in regards to Taiwan.
 
Scott said:
I don't know if it's political or not, but I suspect there's going to be a recession or worse in the U.S. in 2024. Here's an article from February from Business Insider that also believes that a U.S. recession this year is very likely:

The US now has an 85% chance of recession in 2024, the highest probability since the Great Financial Crisis, economist David Rosenberg says | Business Insider

A little more digging and I found an article with the same general theme from Business Insider published -today-:

Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says | Business Insider

From the last linked article:

**
"The simple fact is that record highs in the equity market have buoyed the economic narrative. Yet despite one or two key data points coming in surprisingly robust — particularly non-farm payrolls and GDP — much else has looked frail," Edwards said in a note on Wednesday. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Edwards was among the strategists who foresaw the dot-com crash in the early 2000s and the bursting of the bubble that kicked off the Great Financial Crisis.
**

There's also Warren Buffet's cashing in of a lot of his stocks as detailed in the following article from the end of February:

Warren Buffett's $168 billion cash pile signals he expects stocks to slide and a recession to strike, says top economist Steve Hanke | Business Insider
Click to expand...
The business mags have been predicting a recession for 6 years.
 
Nordberg said:
The business mags have been predicting a recession for 6 years.
Click to expand...

Even if true, perhaps they're right this time around. It's not like the U.S. hasn't had them in the not too distant past- I'm thinking 2008. Incidentally, I saw a great documentary on the 2008 crash, trailer can be seen here:
 
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