A look back on My Genius Electoral Analysis

[BRUTALITOPS]

Periodically I will be searching all posts of mine where I schooled people on this forum with my wonderful insight.

Today, I take on a thread started by rana titled: "Trump has a Latino Problem"
https://www.justplainpolitics.com/showthread.php?67623-Trump-has-a-Latino-Problem

This thread took place in May, 2016.

The premise of the thread was that Trump was in big big trouble with latinos. I quickly came into the thread and laid out my awesome insight:

You aren't sorry, you love the snark.

Did you read the article? 2 million additional voters, and we probably haven't seen the end of it, now that Trump is the leader of the Republican party.

My response,

problem 1) you assume all 2 million are anti-trump votes

problem 2) colorado was probably going democrat anyway.. maybe nevada too. It hurts him in FL though.. maybe

problem 3) the data I have seen.. courtesy of CNN last night, is that Trump is exactly with lations where Romney was. So he's not majorly hemmoraging lation votes like you allude to. He's also up about 5% with African american voters, if you can believe it.

Trumps strategy is to turn out white voters, (which there are more of) and appeal to blue collar democrats (like the 50k that switches to vote for him in penn)

Univision, you remember them and Trump, was the driving force behind the Latino registration and the majority of them will be voting Democrat. They registered 3 million new voters.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ino-voter-registration-drive-helps-democrats/

The data did not include these new voters, so we will see where Trump ends up!

===========

Trump can definitely win. But if you look at the numbers today there's a reason Hillary is a big favorite. Romney crushed the white vote and still lost rather handily. There are not that many white people out there waiting for Trump for them to vote. Throw in that Hispanics are registering in record numbers, many with the sole goal of voting against Trump. It's a huge problem for him.

depends where the latinos are registering. if a bulk of that number is coming from california it's less of an issue than say if it were in ohio. people just see raw%'s and never figure how that will apply demographically on an electoral map.

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Lets go over my analysis and condense it for easy reading, shall we?

- I correctly disputed the claim that Trump was in deep trouble with hispanics. While OP was claiming that 2 million new registrations were doom and gloom for him, I looked at it with a far more level head. I ended up correctly asserting that Trump's standing with hispanics was the same as romneys and that he was in fact not in trouble with that demographic. Trump ended up winning hispanics by 3pts more than romney.

- I succinctly outlined his strategy to turn out more white voters and blue collar democrats. This was way before this was common knowledge and it is the exact strategy that helped him win.

- I remark/predict that Trump will have 50k more votes switch to him in pennsylvania. A state that trump ended up flipping. Also, here is an interesting image:

The first percent column is hillarys numbers with 2,926,000 votes. Trump has 2,970,000 votes. I didn't say 70k. I didn't say 30k. I said 50k were switching to him and that's the EXACT number he won by. OOOOOO boy is that sexy!

- Lastly, I talk about how looking at mass registration numbers is useless when discussing electoral politics. I specifically point out that if the bulk of registrations are coming mostly from california, it wont matter. California ended up giving clinton the popular vote win almost solely because hispanic registration was heavily concentrated in that state. And it didn't matter, just like I said.

When I talk about electoral politics, I am on fucking fire. I am literally one of the greatest political thinkers and analysts to ever grace the internet, and certainly on this board. When I talk electoral politics, you better listen. Because I am god.

Thank you.

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

And before people say:

"hurr durr all you did was take data from other sources", my repsonse is, that's what analysis is. You pull in all available data and draw conclusions. We all had the same data, and yet not everyone had the same predictions. Why is that? Because I am fire and god. I am the best and know what I am talking about. I am the signal in the noise.

 

[Русский агент]

ur signature is 100% fact

u should def run 4 office

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

California did not give Hillary Clinton victory in the election. The American people did. 1 America voted for Hillary Clinton, 0 Americas voted for Trump. Trump is a fascist dictator who seized power after losing an election in a massive landslide.

 

[Русский агент]

California did not give Hillary Clinton victory in the election. The American people did. 1 America voted for Hillary Clinton, 0 Americas voted for Trump. Trump is a fascist dictator who seized power after losing an election in a massive landslide.

u r trolling but i think thatz legit what a lot of libz think happened

ever since jan 20 they been like

they will loze whatz left of their mindz when he iz inaugurated a second time

 

[Peridot]

When are you going to do my biography Grind?

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

it's on the docket of things!

 

[Peridot]

it's on the docket of things!

Just how big is your docket these days?

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

bumping this thread. ILA is bumping his genius today so I have to bump some of mine. Liberals have to be reminded who their superiors are.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

Whew.

You & ILA really have my sympathies.

Life. It's a cool thing. Get one.

 

[canceled.2021.1]

Whew.

You & ILA really have my sympathies.

Life. It's a cool thing. Get one.

What you really meant to say is that you are in awe of the sheer brilliance of me and Grind.

I don't know if there is a better combination of political acumen than myself and Grind

We should run someone's campaign as we would run a campaign that could not be beaten.

While we are both political savants, Grind is much more adept at the statistical probabilities and I just know people. I know what pushes their buttons.

You are a neophyte compared to us. You are a superficial thinker who can't get past the headlines. It isn't your fault. You are like most message board posters so you have a lot of company.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

What you really meant to say is that you are in awe of the sheer brilliance of me and Grind.

I don't know if there is a better combination of political acumen than myself and Grind

We should run someone's campaign as we would run a campaign that could not be beaten.

While we are both political savants, Grind is much more adept at the statistical probabilities and I just know people. I know what pushes their buttons.

You are a neophyte compared to us. You are a superficial thinker who can't get past the headlines. It isn't your fault. You are like most message board posters so you have a lot of company.

Nah. You guys are just really dopey. And you have too much time on your hands.

Hobbies are good; I'd recommend 'em.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

I mean, just look at your other thread. You "knew" when Access Hollywood didn't take Trump down, he'd win.

It did take him down, and you didn't know about the Comey letter at that point. Without the letter, Trump loses, badly.

You just say stuff. It's dopey.

 

[canceled.2021.1]

I mean, just look at your other thread. You "knew" when Access Hollywood didn't take Trump down, he'd win.

It did take him down, and you didn't know about the Comey letter at that point. Without the letter, Trump loses, badly.

You just say stuff. It's dopey.

This is why you are always wrong. You just line up behind the conventional wisdom. Hillary tells you Comey cost her the election and you believe it

The Comey letter changed nothing. It didn't change people's minds. She had no momentum to stop

The Access Hollywood tapes ended up being nothing. Trump had too much time to withstand it. Any other politician would have resigned

I understand your anger. You probably never thought I would find the embarrassing post of you assuring a Hillary when especially since you have been trying to pass off that you predicted Trump would win.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

This is why you are always wrong. You just line up behind the conventional wisdom. Hillary tells you Comey cost her the election and you believe it

The Comey letter changed nothing. It didn't change people's minds. She had no momentum to stop

The Access Hollywood tapes ended up being nothing. Trump had too much time to withstand it. Any other politician would have resigned

I understand your anger. You probably never thought I would find the embarrassing post of you assuring a Hillary when especially since you have been trying to pass off that you predicted Trump would win.

I'm just going to enjoy the bolded.

I'm trying to find words. Words not there. No words...words gone.

 

[canceled.2021.1]

I'm just going to enjoy the bolded.

I'm trying to find words. Words not there. No words...words gone.

Then why did you post this

I thought at the beginning of the week that the FBI letter was the end for Hillary.

But Trump didn't get much mo. It looked like he was starting to surge, but judging by the polls yesterday & today (so far), it looks like he wasn't able to get over the top.

Hard to see how he pulls it off. He needs to win every close state.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

Then why did you post this

Thanks for finding that! That's exactly what I told Grind I was saying at the end, just today - exactly. And he called me a liar for that.

See that, Grinder? ILA, with his outstanding searching capabilities (he'd make a wonderful secretary), found my exact verbiage on that.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

And what spot on analysis - I said he needed to win every close state, and that's basically what he did.

 

[canceled.2021.1]

Thanks for finding that! That's exactly what I told Grind I was saying at the end, just today - exactly. And he called me a liar for that.

See that, Grinder? ILA, with his outstanding searching capabilities (he'd make a wonderful secretary), found my exact verbiage on that.

What that despite Comeys letter you still thought Hillary would win? Yeah. Good on ya

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

What that despite Comeys letter you still thought Hillary would win? Yeah. Good on ya

Well, unless Trump won every close state.

Oops.