Actual Experts

Inflation isn't happening? Really? How do you account for the elevated food prices? Gasoline prices?


Sure, the "official" number they report says that there is no inflation, however that isn't what people are feeling and like the labor statistic numbers, you are being manipulated. How? Well, read this.

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-438-public-comment-on-inflation-measurement

We are being screwed by the same experts you rely on. They just don't want you to see it.

So the question is who are you going to believe? Your betters or your own lying eyes?


You're certainly entitled to subscribe to what conspiracy theories you wish to subscribe to, but they don't reflect reality.
 
Are you saying that they did not change the way inflation is calculated? Is that your claim? Think carefully before you respond. I don't mind getting a good bitch slapping in before lunch


Look, if you want to ask a question like that and you want an actual response, you're going to have to describe what you mean by "the way inflation is calculated." In any event, the BLS has addressed the criticisms of Mr. Williams and others in the publication at the link below. If you have any further questions for me after you have reviewed the below, please feel free to post them. In the mean time, I'm not going to get into some stupid shit-throw with you about your asinine inflation conspiracy theories based on a stupid inarticulate question.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf
 
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Inflation isn't hammering anyone. It just isn't. You can keep claiming it is over and over and over and over again, but that doesn't make it so. Inflation has been at or below the FED target rate for a long long time. Future inflation expectations aren't high at all. If we reach a point where inflation becomes problematic, the FED has plenty of tools in its arsenal to deal with that particular problem.

LMAO... Pay attention to what I stated Polly... Inflation on FOOD, ENERGY and CLOTHING in the past four years IS hammering people. Not overall inflation as you pathetically attempt to divert to, but inflation on food, energy and clothing.

Cotton is up over 50% since 2010
Heating oil is up over 50% since 2010
Wheat is up over 30%
Corn is up almost 100%
Beef, Pork, Gasoline, etc... the list keeps going... We have seen dramatic increases in the things we see and feel day to day.

The reason that overall inflation is muted right now is because housing accounts for 40% of the overall inflation number. Yet people do not feel the effects of housing decline unless they are trying to refi or sell. It is not something that affects our monthly living expenses or that hurts us during a recession given most people who own are on fixed mortgages.

Depending on where you live, we are also starting to see an escalation in rents in many parts of the country.

So again, you have no clue what you are talking about. Which is not surprising given you are simply regurgitating what Krugman says.

The real problem that we have right now is that not enough people are employed and people don't have money to spend.

Yes, and that is why we need a real leader that actually understands how to get people back to work. Obama has proven that he has no clue.

If done appropriately, we can spend now on things that we will have to spend money on eventually anyway and can do so at negative real interest rates. Under the circumstances, there is no good reason not to do it. Of course, debating this issue is stupid in any event since we're talking about fiscal policy and Congress isn't going to do anything anyway. Monetary policy is all we've got and we've got few options there.

Yes, which is what I stated in a post just after the one you quoted. Infrastructure is a prime example. That said, just giving money to states is not an answer. Negative real interest rates are great if you actually pay back the loans yourself instead of asking future generations to do so. If you are unable to pay the loans back in the future then they end up getting refinanced at higher rates. That is the problem that most like you seem to ignore. Eventually the money has to be paid back.
 
Look, if you want to ask a question like that and you want an actual response, you're going to have to describe what you mean by "the way inflation is calculated." In any event, the BLS has addressed the criticisms of Mr. Williams and others in the publication at the link below. If you have any further questions for me after you have reviewed the below, please feel free to post them. In the mean time, I'm not going to get into some stupid shit-throw with you about your asinine inflation conspiracy theories based on a stupid inarticulate question.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf

So you admit that it has been "changed" and page 6 of your article proves my point. It was changed so that it underestimates actual price increases.

But, please by all means, keep running with the fact that prices aren't going up. The Fed isn't printing money. We are at full employment. Gas prices are back to $0.99/gallon

:rofl2:
 
LMAO... Pay attention to what I stated Polly... Inflation on FOOD, ENERGY and CLOTHING in the past four years IS hammering people. Not overall inflation as you pathetically attempt to divert to, but inflation on food, energy and clothing.

Cotton is up over 50% since 2010
Heating oil is up over 50% since 2010
Wheat is up over 30%
Corn is up almost 100%
Beef, Pork, Gasoline, etc... the list keeps going... We have seen dramatic increases in the things we see and feel day to day.

The reason that overall inflation is muted right now is because housing accounts for 40% of the overall inflation number. Yet people do not feel the effects of housing decline unless they are trying to refi or sell. It is not something that affects our monthly living expenses or that hurts us during a recession given most people who own are on fixed mortgages.

Depending on where you live, we are also starting to see an escalation in rents in many parts of the country.


Here's a chart of both all items and all items less food and energy. Inflation is not high:

1-12-chart2.png



Here's a chart of inflation for food at home over the past five years. Again, not high:

fredgraph.png



And here is apparel. It did spike somewhat in 2011 after being flat for a while, but it is on the downslope:

fredgraph.png



Finally, here is energy:

fredgraph.png



So again, you have no clue what you are talking about. Which is not surprising given you are simply regurgitating what Krugman says.

No, I know full well what I'm talking about. Inflation is not high and is not a problem. The real problem is unemployment. That is what needs to be dealt. If inflation does become a problem, the FED has plenty of tools in its arsenal to deal with it.

Also, too, I know you think you've made a point when you keep saying that I parrot things or whatever, but the stuff that I'm saying is mainstream economic thought. You, on the other hand, are regurgitating right-wing faux intellectual bullshit that serve to benefit rich people. Enough projection, SF.



Yes, and that is why we need a real leader that actually understands how to get people back to work. Obama has proven that he has no clue.

Obama? I'm voting Johnson.


Yes, which is what I stated in a post just after the one you quoted. Infrastructure is a prime example. That said, just giving money to states is not an answer. Negative real interest rates are great if you actually pay back the loans yourself instead of asking future generations to do so. If you are unable to pay the loans back in the future then they end up getting refinanced at higher rates. That is the problem that most like you seem to ignore. Eventually the money has to be paid back.

Giving money to states is actually a great answer. If government employment grew under Obama at the same rate it grew under Bush, we'd have 7% unemployment right now. The cut backs at the state and local government level have been huge drags on the recovery. In any event, that's not going to happen anyway so who cares.

Also, I know that you think this "future generation" thing is a great point, but it really isn't. Cutting government spending as you want to do just shrinks the economy and makes debt worse. The best thing to do for debt in the near term is to spend lots of cheap money to get the economy cooking again.
 
Here's a chart of both all items and all items less food and energy. Inflation is not high:

1-12-chart2.png



Here's a chart of inflation for food at home over the past five years. Again, not high:

fredgraph.png



And here is apparel. It did spike somewhat in 2011 after being flat for a while, but it is on the downslope:

fredgraph.png



Finally, here is energy:

fredgraph.png





No, I know full well what I'm talking about. Inflation is not high and is not a problem. The real problem is unemployment. That is what needs to be dealt. If inflation does become a problem, the FED has plenty of tools in its arsenal to deal with it.

Also, too, I know you think you've made a point when you keep saying that I parrot things or whatever, but the stuff that I'm saying is mainstream economic thought. You, on the other hand, are regurgitating right-wing faux intellectual bullshit that serve to benefit rich people. Enough projection, SF.





Obama? I'm voting Johnson.




Giving money to states is actually a great answer. If government employment grew under Obama at the same rate it grew under Bush, we'd have 7% unemployment right now. The cut backs at the state and local government level have been huge drags on the recovery. In any event, that's not going to happen anyway so who cares.

Also, I know that you think this "future generation" thing is a great point, but it really isn't. Cutting government spending as you want to do just shrinks the economy and makes debt worse. The best thing to do for debt in the near term is to spend lots of cheap money to get the economy cooking again.

Just give money to the states? That is what happened with the first Porkulus bill OWEdummyfucker signed. How did that work out?

Where does the federal government get the money to keep giving to the states? You live in an imaginary world of faux economics. Keep blowing up bubbles and then act surprised when they blow up in your pock marked face
 
Just give money to the states? That is what happened with the first Porkulus bill OWEdummyfucker signed. How did that work out?

Pretty well actually. It just wasn't enough.


Where does the federal government get the money to keep giving to the states? You live in an imaginary world of faux economics. Keep blowing up bubbles and then act surprised when they blow up in your pock marked face

It borrows it. What "bubble" is blown up by giving states money so that they don't make recessions worse? Pretty much all of the states have balanced budget requirements. When revenues drop off, like say, in the wake of the worst recession since the 1950s at least, they have to dramatically cut spending. Those cuts further reduce demand and put people out of work. The federal government, by contrast, has the ability to borrow money and during recessionary times can often do so very cheaply as investors move to safe investments, like US government debt. In fact, nominal interest rates on US government debt are so low that real interest rates are negative. Under the circumstances, it makes good sense to do it. But good sense is in unfortunately short supply these days.
 
Pretty well actually. It just wasn't enough.




It borrows it. What "bubble" is blown up by giving states money so that they don't make recessions worse? Pretty much all of the states have balanced budget requirements. When revenues drop off, like say, in the wake of the worst recession since the 1950s at least, they have to dramatically cut spending. Those cuts further reduce demand and put people out of work. The federal government, by contrast, has the ability to borrow money and during recessionary times can often do so very cheaply as investors move to safe investments, like US government debt. In fact, nominal interest rates on US government debt are so low that real interest rates are negative. Under the circumstances, it makes good sense to do it. But good sense is in unfortunately short supply these days.

You are proof that good sense is in short supply. You act like all of this money printing will have ZERO negative effects. You put all of your faith in Bernanke.

The bubble is the debt bubble that is about to explode. That money has to be paid back. And when it has to be paid back, it has to be TAKEN out of the economy. No matter what fun games you and Bernanke want to play, the only place that the Fed and the gobblement can get money is from the PRODUCERS.

They have been priming this pump for many years and as you correctly pointed out, they are out of arrows. The answer isn't more of the same. But, hey, you can always blame the GOP as you vote for Chairman Maobama
 
No, I know full well what I'm talking about. Inflation is not high and is not a problem.

No, you don't.... otherwise you would pay attention to what others are saying and actually look at the data presented.... here... once again...

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

The real problem is unemployment. That is what needs to be dealt. If inflation does become a problem, the FED has plenty of tools in its arsenal to deal with it.

Again, how many times are you going to parrot the above? We know unemployment is ALSO a problem. We also know that Obama has no clue how to resolve that problem.

Also, too, I know you think you've made a point when you keep saying that I parrot things or whatever, but the stuff that I'm saying is mainstream economic thought. You, on the other hand, are regurgitating right-wing faux intellectual bullshit that serve to benefit rich people. Enough projection, SF.

ROFLMAO... no Polly, what you are regurgitating is mainstream LIBERAL thought. Not economic. Not in the least. Again, are you honestly going to tell us you aren't paying more at the pump, at the grocery store etc... for the same items? Are you honestly going to sit there and pretend prices on most items have skyrocketed in the past several years?

Giving money to states is actually a great answer. If government employment grew under Obama at the same rate it grew under Bush, we'd have 7% unemployment right now.

Go get your cracker Polly.

The cut backs at the state and local government level have been huge drags on the recovery. In any event, that's not going to happen anyway so who cares.

Also, I know that you think this "future generation" thing is a great point, but it really isn't. Cutting government spending as you want to do just shrinks the economy and makes debt worse. The best thing to do for debt in the near term is to spend lots of cheap money to get the economy cooking again.

The fucking stupidity of the above is yet further proof that you have no clue what you are talking about.
 
No, you don't.... otherwise you would pay attention to what others are saying and actually look at the data presented.... here... once again...

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost





Again, how many times are you going to parrot the above? We know unemployment is ALSO a problem. We also know that Obama has no clue how to resolve that problem.



ROFLMAO... no Polly, what you are regurgitating is mainstream LIBERAL thought. Not economic. Not in the least. Again, are you honestly going to tell us you aren't paying more at the pump, at the grocery store etc... for the same items? Are you honestly going to sit there and pretend prices on most items have skyrocketed in the past several years?



Go get your cracker Polly.



The fucking stupidity of the above is yet further proof that you have no clue what you are talking about.

Actually the last point is somewhat correct, although I am not sure that is what he was shooting for. If they were actually paying down debt, they would be paying it down with cheaper dollars which isn't a bad thing. That was how we eliminated the debt from WWII. We didn't actually pay it down, we just inflated it away. The problem is that you only get so many bites at an apple. And you have to hope that the folks who lent you the money don't catch on that you are paying them with cheaper dollars. Fortunately, I stopped gobblement bonds a very long time ago when the fed cranked up the printing presses after 9-11 and I am ordering my financial affairs so someone else gets to pay this debt back and not me or my kids
 
Inflation isn't hammering anyone. It just isn't. You can keep claiming it is over and over and over and over again, but that doesn't make it so. ...The real problem that we have right now is that not enough people are employed and people don't have money to spend.

Reality called and said it would like to get in touch with you again sometime. The average consumer prices for groceries has gone up around 30% since Obama took office. Fuel and energy costs are averaging 200% higher. The formula was changed in 2009, on how the CPI was calculated, which mitigates the high rise in groceries and fuel, and voila, it appears there isn't much inflation happening. But the reality is, we changed the way it is calculated, and the price of these things has risen dramatically. Pinheads and "experts" can play all kinds of games with the numbers and make it appear things aren't that bad, but people in the real world are feeling the brunt in their everyday lives. Common sense should tell you, when the cost of fuel rises dramatically, as it has, then the cost of everything that requires transport also increases. It simply doesn't matter how you adjust the formulas or change the calculations, that doesn't negate this fact of life.

Rising cost of fuel is not caused by people not working and not having money to spend. Things like, declaring moratoriums on offshore drilling, refusing to budge on new domestic drilling or exploration, and the relentless war on Big Oil, have been the catalysts for rising fuel costs. Also, the instability in the Middle East due to feckless leadership and a weak foreign policy, plays a role. Unemployment is at 8-10%, which means employment is at 90-92%, the problem is not that we don't have enough people working. Granted, we should be able to increase employment to 95% or better, but that has no effect on consumer prices. The continually rising cost of fuel, has the most profound impact.

If done appropriately, we can spend now on things that we will have to spend money on eventually anyway and can do so at negative real interest rates. Under the circumstances, there is no good reason not to do it. Of course, debating this issue is stupid in any event since we're talking about fiscal policy and Congress isn't going to do anything anyway. Monetary policy is all we've got and we've got few options there.

We can't spend money we don't have. It doesn't matter if we are spending it on things we'll eventually need, we still can't spend what doesn't exist. We have been borrowing money to spend on these things, but we've pretty much borrowed all that lenders are willing to let us have at this point, and our situation is no better. So now, the 'answer' is quantitative easing, or printing up money that has no backing. This is a plan with "FAIL" written all over it, because all we are doing is further devaluing the dollar. This will only exacerbate our problem down the road. In the meantime, this administration and liberal pinheads in general, are doing everything in their power to attack and punish capitalism. The very mechanisms which could pull us out of this economic funk, are being systematically destroyed as we speak. Pure wealth envy has caused us to turn on the very people who have the means to change the dynamic.

I believe this is all "by design." Socialists need to destroy capitalism and the free markets, so that the people are desperate, as they were during the Great Depression, and will embrace absolute Socialism as a life preserver. This has been the blueprint for Socialism through history, and it's being played out before our very eyes, right here in the good old USA. Many companies have completely gone under, and will never return. Many more great companies will never again be as strong as they once were. These are things that can't be fixed easily by a few administrative policies or acts from Congress, they will take decades to heal, even if we manage to get rid of the Socialists.
 
Reality called and said it would like to get in touch with you again sometime. The average consumer prices for groceries has gone up around 30% since Obama took office. Fuel and energy costs are averaging 200% higher. The formula was changed in 2009, on how the CPI was calculated, which mitigates the high rise in groceries and fuel, and voila, it appears there isn't much inflation happening. But the reality is, we changed the way it is calculated, and the price of these things has risen dramatically. Pinheads and "experts" can play all kinds of games with the numbers and make it appear things aren't that bad, but people in the real world are feeling the brunt in their everyday lives. Common sense should tell you, when the cost of fuel rises dramatically, as it has, then the cost of everything that requires transport also increases. It simply doesn't matter how you adjust the formulas or change the calculations, that doesn't negate this fact of life.

Rising cost of fuel is not caused by people not working and not having money to spend. Things like, declaring moratoriums on offshore drilling, refusing to budge on new domestic drilling or exploration, and the relentless war on Big Oil, have been the catalysts for rising fuel costs. Also, the instability in the Middle East due to feckless leadership and a weak foreign policy, plays a role. Unemployment is at 8-10%, which means employment is at 90-92%, the problem is not that we don't have enough people working. Granted, we should be able to increase employment to 95% or better, but that has no effect on consumer prices. The continually rising cost of fuel, has the most profound impact.



We can't spend money we don't have. It doesn't matter if we are spending it on things we'll eventually need, we still can't spend what doesn't exist. We have been borrowing money to spend on these things, but we've pretty much borrowed all that lenders are willing to let us have at this point, and our situation is no better. So now, the 'answer' is quantitative easing, or printing up money that has no backing. This is a plan with "FAIL" written all over it, because all we are doing is further devaluing the dollar. This will only exacerbate our problem down the road. In the meantime, this administration and liberal pinheads in general, are doing everything in their power to attack and punish capitalism. The very mechanisms which could pull us out of this economic funk, are being systematically destroyed as we speak. Pure wealth envy has caused us to turn on the very people who have the means to change the dynamic.

I believe this is all "by design." Socialists need to destroy capitalism and the free markets, so that the people are desperate, as they were during the Great Depression, and will embrace absolute Socialism as a life preserver. This has been the blueprint for Socialism through history, and it's being played out before our very eyes, right here in the good old USA. Many companies have completely gone under, and will never return. Many more great companies will never again be as strong as they once were. These are things that can't be fixed easily by a few administrative policies or acts from Congress, they will take decades to heal, even if we manage to get rid of the Socialists.

I agree with your post except for one thing. The price of oil, should actually be coming down given the state of the US economy. But it is not. It isn't really all of the things you mentioned. It is the money printing by Bernanke. Oil is price in dollars on the world market. Dollar goes down, need to charge more dollars for the same amount of oil. Simple supply and demand, but not of oil, dollars. Libtards don't understand that.

It is probably time to get back into gold and silver. I missed the bottom, but I will ride it back up
 
No, you don't.... otherwise you would pay attention to what others are saying and actually look at the data presented.... here... once again...

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

Link is busted. I posted the data, SF. Get real.


Again, how many times are you going to parrot the above? We know unemployment is ALSO a problem. We also know that Obama has no clue how to resolve that problem.

Knowing how isn't exactly the issue. Obama has a bill to do it, but it isn't going to go anywhere because of the House Republicans.


ROFLMAO... no Polly, what you are regurgitating is mainstream LIBERAL thought. Not economic. Not in the least. Again, are you honestly going to tell us you aren't paying more at the pump, at the grocery store etc... for the same items? Are you honestly going to sit there and pretend prices on most items have skyrocketed in the past several years?

No, it's mainstream economic thought. Look at the charts I've posted. Food, clothing and energy prices are higher, but not excessively so. Anecdotal bullshit doesn't refute the data.


Go get your cracker Polly.

It's true.


The fucking stupidity of the above is yet further proof that you have no clue what you are talking about.

What I find most interesting about you, SF, is your modesty. I mean, you really are open to the opinions of others that differ from yours and are fully cognizant that your opinions may not be correct. I applaud you for it.

As it stands, I'm fairly confident based on real world experiences in the United States and Europe that I am, in fact, correct, that I know what I'm talking about and that you suffer from a severe case of the Dunning-Kreuger effect, which you may want to have checked out. Of course, I acknowledge that I may be wrong, but I doubt it.
 
I agree with your post except for one thing. The price of oil, should actually be coming down given the state of the US economy. But it is not. It isn't really all of the things you mentioned. It is the money printing by Bernanke. Oil is price in dollars on the world market. Dollar goes down, need to charge more dollars for the same amount of oil. Simple supply and demand, but not of oil, dollars. Libtards don't understand that.

It is probably time to get back into gold and silver. I missed the bottom, but I will ride it back up

Well, as I said, quantitative easing is not helping the situation, it is exacerbating the problems. The oil prices are high for a multitude of reasons, most notably, instability in the Middle East. This wouldn't be such a problem for us here in America, if we were increasing domestic drilling and reducing dependence on foreign oil. To put this in a nutshell, there are probably 20-40 things we can do to improve our situation, and NONE of them are being done correctly by this administration.
 
Link is busted. I posted the data, SF. Get real.

Just go on there and look at the charts of all of the commodities listed moron. That is actual DATA, you posted charts, but did not include the data sets that go with them. The data sets are on the link I posted. The data shows that from 2008, the commodities that hit consumers have indeed gone up drastically since the downturn began. Far outstripping the pace of overall inflation. The data does not support you.


Knowing how isn't exactly the issue. Obama has a bill to do it, but it isn't going to go anywhere because of the House Republicans.

and the House has passed numerous jobs bills that die in the Senate. Obama's plan is 'more of the same'. It has been shown not to work. Yet you want to try it again.

No, it's mainstream economic thought. Look at the charts I've posted. Food, clothing and energy prices are higher, but not excessively so. Anecdotal bullshit doesn't refute the data.

No moron, it is not. It is mainstream liberal talking points designed to pretend that people aren't actually experiencing higher prices at the pump and at the grocery store on a daily basis. Again, actual data is on the link I provided. Look at the data Polly. You might not be chirping so much.


It's true.

do they at least give you healthy crackers?

What I find most interesting about you, SF, is your modesty. I mean, you really are open to the opinions of others that differ from yours and are fully cognizant that your opinions may not be correct. I applaud you for it.

The data is not opinion. The data shows you are wrong. That is what makes you a moron for continuing to spout your nonsense.
 
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ap

Go here click on each of the items listed, then hit submit, it will pull up the actual data.


You're cherry-picking select items in a large data series instead of looking at the categories as a whole. I posted the categorical data and it reflects modest price increases, nothing huge.

The full energy cinflation data I've already posted.

You include apples, oranges, tomatoes and bananas, but not other fruits and vegetable. Overall, fruit and vegetable prices haven't increased much at all over the past five years:

fredgraph.png



You look at whole milk, but not dairy more generally, which again haven't increased much:

fredgraph.png



Then you pick out ground beef, pork and eggs. Well, here's meat, poultry, fish and eggs and the story is similar. No big increases:

fredgraph.png




Inflation is a phantom problem. It isn't a problem at all.
 
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