An Idea for Student Debt Relief

My experience with government doctors is in the context of the Uniformed Services University health sciences school in Bethesda. Those I met there were whip-smart and extremely ambitious, but their ambitions were centered around leaving a public legacy, rather than buying a bigger house.
Agreed. Those guys have a real plan before going there. They're not your run of the mill army doc that barely got out of some state school and joined as a last resort to make a living. That was my experience with them.
Do the USU students go there tuition free ? If so that would acct. for a very competitive pool of applicants.
 
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My experience with government doctors is in the context of the Uniformed Services University health sciences school in Bethesda. Those I met there were whip-smart and extremely ambitious, but their ambitions were centered around leaving a public legacy, rather than buying a bigger house.

thats even scarier.
 
Agreed. Those guys have a real plan before going there. They're not your run of the mill army doc that barely got out of some state school and joined as a last resort to make a living. That was my experience with them.
Do the USU students go there tuition free ? If so that would acct. for a very competitive pool of applicants.

I think it is tuition-free, though I'm not certain.
 
Students pay no tuition or fees and, in fact, receive the full salary and benefits of a uniformed officer throughout their four years at the university in exchange for a seven-year active duty service commitment.
https://www.google.com/search?q=is+...j33i160l2.14256j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Yes that explains it. Not only no tuition but full pay. Pretty good deal. That would attract quality applicants.

Right up until you are sent to a federal prison to work, or maybe a reservation in the Middle of Nowhere, or some other really crappy, and even potentially dangerous, duty to fill your obligation.
 
Right up until you are sent to a federal prison to work, or maybe a reservation in the Middle of Nowhere, or some other really crappy, and even potentially dangerous, duty to fill your obligation.

Yep, the trade off is those guys are property of the federal gubmint for many years of their life. And the longer they are, the harder it is to integrate into civilian society. I've seen it first hand. NO THANKS.
 
Unlike most liberals, I don't like the idea of generalized elimination of student debt.

Partly that's because I dislike the idea of a net transfer of wealth to people like young doctors and lawyers who will end up making a killing in their lifetimes.

Partly it's that I don't like the injustice of it in a situation where you compare someone who spent years making sacrifices to pay down what she owes, and a peer who lived the high life while making only minimum payments and taking every deferment opportunity, and now they're both put in the same situation.

But mostly it's because I worry about the unintended consequences -- for example, if lenders worry about debts being wiped out again, they'll charge much higher rates to account for that risk, making education even less affordable. Similarly, if people implicitly factor in the chance of having debt wiped out, they'll be willing to take on more of it, which puts upward pressure on college costs.

So, here's my pet idea, in lieu of that:

The government agrees to pay off however much student debt you'd like them to pay off, but in exchange you get a PERMANENT increase in all your tax rates of 0.1 point (income, estate, and capital gains), for each $1,000 of debt the government assumes.

So, say you graduate with $50,000 in student debt at 10yrs/5% terms, but you can only find work paying $30,000 per year. And so that $6,364 per year in loan payments is just killing you. You can wipe it all out, and in exchange your tax rates go up 5 points. Based on a $12,550 standard deduction, you would have been on the hook for $1,895 in taxes, but after the increase you'd be on the hook for $2,270. So, year one, you're relieved of $6,364 in payments, in exchange for $375 in extra taxes. Great deal. And even across a lifetime of earning, you are likely to come out ahead with that deal, unless you wind up making a lot more money down the road. So, you'd probably be smart to take the deal.

Now say that, instead, you're a freshly minted lawyer with a job offer from a big firm to earn $200,000. Well, now, if you take that same offer to wipe out $50k in debt for a permanent 5 point hike in tax rates, then year one you get the same $6,364 off your loan liability, but it's in exchange for a year one increase in taxes of $14,169. So, right out of the gate, it's a garbage deal, and you won't take it. You'll just pay what you owe.

Where it gets a bit tougher is in the middle. Like same deal, but your job pays $60k/year. Taking the deal helps you out in the early years: $6,365/year of debt payment relief in exchange for $3,498 more in taxes. But ten years down the road, that loan would be going away, anyway, whereas that tax increase persists. So, if you're really hurting right now, maybe it's worth paying more in the long haul in exchange for relief when you really need it. But if you're honest with yourself, you may admit the current pain isn't really that bad, so just bite bullet, tighten your belt, and pay what you owe.

You can tweak this idea by adjusting what dollar amounts equate with what tax change. Like if it's 0.1 point of hike for every $2,000, instead of every $1,000, it's friendlier to debtors..... it still wouldn't be attractive the lawyer in the second example, but will look like a better deal for the guy making $60k in the third.

The advantage of this system is that it gives people an incentive to be honest with the government, and themselves, about future earning prospects. If you're genuinely desperate, you'll jump at this, but if you know you're just temporarily strapped and will soon have plenty of money, you won't offload that debt onto the taxpayer when you know it'll mean higher taxes on a lifetime of high earnings. And it preserve the incentive to keep school costs low, since you pay at least some of it in some form, regardless.

How about this? All student debt since 2004 is cancelled and anyone who paid on any of that debt at all is reimbursed? With interest?
 
Let's say you would pay 5% interest on that $1,000, and instead spend 0.1% tax on all your income. For that to make sense, you would have to make less than $50k average for life. That means if there is inflation, you are really screwed. If you ever make more than $50k, you are really screwed.

That is a very bad deal. Do not take it.

I need to correct my math. I made a huge mistake. This is a terrible deal for anyone who makes over $20k a year on average for life. Minimum wage will be above $10 soon or later nationwide, and is already in several states, so this is pretty much the worst deal I can imagine.

Inflation is the friend of anyone with a fixed loan. If inflation is 10%, their loan payments are going down by 10% every year in real terms. Taking the tax deal adjusts for inflation, as your income increases, your payments increase.

So adjusted for inflation, a reasonable interest rate on a government guaranteed loan is less than 2%. If you add in inflation of 3%, you get something around 5%, which is about what it is.

Put another way, if you borrow a $1k, have 5% interest, pay 2% of that, then you owe 3% more, which if that is 3% inflation, you owe exactly the same amount in real terms.

So lets enter 2% into our equation. So now you get $20 of payment for every $1k you owe to stay at the same amount owed in real (inflation adjusted) terms. To equal that in 0.1% taxes, you would need to make $20k a year. So this is a good deal if, and only if, you have less than $20k a year income for life. It is a terrible deal for almost all Americans.
 
It can be a very good deal for poorer people.

You would have to find people who average less than $20k(adjusted for inflation) a year for life. That is very poor indeed for a college educated person. That is poor for any American.

Let's say it's a 10-year loan at 5%

Because you are talking about being taxed for life, you need to compare it to an infinite length loan. And because the tax goes up with inflation, you need to adjust the loan for inflation. So lets say a loan that is 2% above inflation, where you only need to pay the 2% every year. On every $1k you owe, you would need to pay $20. To pay the same on 0.1% of your income, you would need to have $20k of income. If you make more than $20k of income, you have made a terrible decision.

Now, let's say that you earn $15,000 per year, year one (about full-time for minimum wage)

If you make federal minimum wage, never get a raise above inflation, and minimum wage stays at its bizarrely low inflation adjusted rate that it is right now for your entire life... Then it is a good deal, barely, as long as you never make any more income from anything. You would need to live in poverty, and never get any government benefits, which would be a strange combination.

It is kind of tough to get that math to work, because the scenario is farfetched. I used to give financial advise to the needy for a charity, and I could not in good faith give this financial advise to anyone.
 
I'm more sympathetic than that. In our society we have rules that allow those who get in over their heads a way back to the surface. Trump, for example, was involved in six different bankruptcies. I can't justify being lenient when it comes to an inept businessman like that, yet expecting some poor guy to pay back every penny of student debt he started taking on when he was just a child. So, I'd like to provide an avenue to relief for those who are genuinely excessively distressed by their student debt. I just don't want that avenue to be open to those who could afford to pay and are just looking to hand their liability off to someone else so they can get rich faster.

Regarding your comment on Trump, across his years in business he owned or operated about 500 incorporated companies. Assuming multiple years for each and multiple decisions that could ruin each, only 6 bankruptcies is a great average.

Figure 40 years with 500 businesses with the potential for each one to fail every day and add in that many were already failing when he acquired them and the total of 6 is really a mark of incredible success.

Regarding the ill considered student loans taken by the inexperienced idiots who took them, well, they made that decision.

Others took loans to buy cars. In my case, I worked full time and it took six years to get a degree that provided no income value, but it was a fun six years. Should the car loans be forgiven? Should I be awarded the cost of 4 year degree?

The best first step in resolving the student loan "crisis" is to take the loan process for this out of the hands of the government and place it with the lending institutions.

The same idiocy that led to the financial collapse of 2008 is the foundational guidance in this stupidity.

Whether it's sub prime lending as it was for the 2008 debacle or unsecured loans to idiots who have no idea what it is they are signing, the outcome is the same.

When money is loaned to people who will NEVER be able to pay it back, it is likely that it will NEVER be paid back.

About 1% of our population earns $350K/year. Median income is around $45K. Average income is around $65K.

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/
 
Regarding your comment on Trump, across his years in business he owned or operated about 500 incorporated companies. Assuming multiple years for each and multiple decisions that could ruin each, only 6 bankruptcies is a great average.

Figure 40 years with 500 businesses with the potential for each one to fail every day and add in that many were already failing when he acquired them and the total of 6 is really a mark of incredible success.

Regarding the ill considered student loans taken by the inexperienced idiots who took them, well, they made that decision.

Others took loans to buy cars. In my case, I worked full time and it took six years to get a degree that provided no income value, but it was a fun six years. Should the car loans be forgiven? Should I be awarded the cost of 4 year degree?

The best first step in resolving the student loan "crisis" is to take the loan process for this out of the hands of the government and place it with the lending institutions.

The same idiocy that led to the financial collapse of 2008 is the foundational guidance in this stupidity.

Whether it's sub prime lending as it was for the 2008 debacle or unsecured loans to idiots who have no idea what it is they are signing, the outcome is the same.

When money is loaned to people who will NEVER be able to pay it back, it is likely that it will NEVER be paid back.

About 1% of our population earns $350K/year. Median income is around $45K. Average income is around $65K.

https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-calculator/

but banks resecuritized known bad loans into investment products and resold them as A rated investments.
they did that on their own.

really the whole process of fiat currency lending needs to be addressed.

see the creature from jekyll island.
 
getting huge mortgages for everything needs to stop.

prices will adjust.

asking individuals or institutions to scry into the future can invite dark outcomes.
 
How about this? All student debt since 2004 is cancelled and anyone who paid on any of that debt at all is reimbursed? With interest?

I think that would lack some of the advantages of the program I'm talking about. For example, it would be a big windfall for a lot of rich people (ultimately at the cost of poorer taxpayers). You could be a doctor, 10 or 15 years into a career, earning half a million per year, without a penny of student loan debt remaining, and suddenly you get a check from a couple hundred thousand bucks, to reimburse you for past payments, with that bill eventually winding up in the taxes of people who don't earn a tenth what you do.

I like my idea because richer people would steer clear of it, since the higher taxes they'd be taking on would cost them more, in the long run. That said, I suppose the program could be done with some sort of retrospective element. For example, if you already paid off student loans, you can opt to be reimbursed on the same basis (every $1,000 of reimbursement giving you a permanent 0.1% increase in taxes), but with those extra taxes also being done retroactively (e.g., your past cumulative AGI would be multiplied against the surtax, from the time you took on debt to the present, with some sort of interest rate adjustment, with the intent of putting you in the same position, financially, as you'd have been in if the plan had been available when you graduated and you'd opted in). So, for example, you paid $50,000 on your student loans a decade or two ago, and now you can opt to get that refunded, less whatever extra taxes you'd have had if you'd been paying at a 5-point higher rate all along.

That may be too complicated to be workable, but there are probably some simplified methods that would get to about the same point, where people who opt in, now, are put in roughly the same position as they'd be in if the program had always existed and they'd opted in back at the start.
 
You would have to find people who average less than $20k(adjusted for inflation)
Because you are talking about being taxed for life, you need to compare it to an infinite length loan.

The numbers I came up with were based on a spreadsheet calculation that actually computing each year's income (based on 3.5% annual growth) and each year's deduction (based on 2% per year). I think it works out the way I said. However, if I'm missing something, the numbers could be tweaked (in terms of how many dollars of forgiveness you get per 0.1-point tax increase) to fine-tune it to the intended level (which, for me, is the level where it's clearly a good deal for most poor people, possibly a worthwhile deal for some in the middle class, and definitely not a good deal for the rich). If you think that wouldn't do it at a level of $1,000 of forgiveness for 0.1-point of tax increase, how about $2,000, or $5,000? At some point, you'd get a situation like I'm talking about.
 
Regarding your comment on Trump, across his years in business he owned or operated about 500 incorporated companies. Assuming multiple years for each and multiple decisions that could ruin each, only 6 bankruptcies is a great average.

That's a bit like saying that student have borrowed money hundreds of times, when you consider every credit card transaction, and they only defaulted on that one student loan, so that's a great average.

The reality is that Trump is a miserably inept businessman, whose return on the fortune his father gave him was FAR below what any idiot with an index fund would have gotten in the same time. Yet six separate times, the government helped him stick his creditors after he got in over his head. If we're willing to protect that kind of serially incompetent aristocrat, then I'd certainly like to protect a guy from a poor background who made some unsophisticated decisions to finance his education at a point when he was still a teenager.

The best first step in resolving the student loan "crisis" is to take the loan process for this out of the hands of the government and place it with the lending institutions.

That's how it used to be, and at the time very, very few went to college, and most of those who did came from wealthy families. I'd hate to risk returning to the bad old days.
 
the problem is leveraging away our future based on funny money interest loans.

it's not who has the ring.

the ring is the problem.

have you learned nothing?
 
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