Doesn't change that in CA they have recalled a Governor before, and for less... How do you think we got The Terminator as Governor? I think the man may lose his job before his second term finishes. I certainly think he deserves to lose that job.
Assessing the realistic chances of Gavin Newsom being recalled in 2025 involves looking at historical precedent, current political dynamics, and the procedural hurdles of California’s recall process. As of March 6, 2025, no recall effort has qualified for the ballot, but there have been recent attempts, so let’s break it down.
California’s recall process requires proponents to gather signatures equal to 12% of the votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. In 2022, about 11.1 million people voted, meaning roughly 1.33 million valid signatures would be needed. Organizers typically aim for 1.5–1.6 million to account for invalid ones, and they have 160 days to collect them once a petition is approved. This is a high bar—costly and labor-intensive, often requiring millions of dollars for paid signature gatherers.
Newsom faced a recall election in 2021, triggered by frustration over his COVID-19 policies. That effort succeeded in getting on the ballot with 1.7 million verified signatures, but voters rejected it overwhelmingly—61.9% voted "no" to recalling him. A year later, he won re-election with 59.2%, showing consistent support in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1 (46.9% to 22.5% of registered voters as of early 2025). This suggests a solid base that’s tough to crack in a deep-blue state.
Recent recall attempts, like the one launched by Rescue California in February 2024, fizzled out. They aimed to capitalize on issues like the budget deficit ($47 billion projected for 2025) and Newsom’s national politicking, but failed to submit signatures by the September 3, 2024, deadline. A newer push by Saving California, started in January 2025 after devastating LA wildfires, claims broader appeal, citing Newsom’s handling of fires, crime, and living costs. They’ve served Newsom with intent papers, but as of now, they’re still in the early stages—needing state approval before circulating petitions.
Realistically, the odds hinge on a few factors:
- Public Sentiment: Newsom’s approval rating isn’t freshly polled as of March 2025, but in 2021, it hovered around 53% during the recall, and he still won comfortably. Wildfires and economic woes (e.g., high gas prices, insurance rates) could erode this, especially if voters blame him directly. Posts on X suggest anger among some, but California’s liberal lean means discontent may not translate to majority support for removal.
- Organization and Funding: The 2021 recall cost $276 million total (state and campaigns), with Newsom’s side spending $75 million. Rescue California’s 2024 flop showed that without big money—unlike 2021’s $20 million from proponents—efforts stall. Saving California claims grassroots momentum, but they’d need serious cash to scale up, and no major donors have emerged yet.
- Political Climate: With Newsom term-limited (out in January 2027), opponents might see less urgency in a recall versus waiting him out. Plus, his national profile as a Biden surrogate and potential 2028 presidential contender could galvanize both supporters and detractors. Democrats would likely rally hard again, framing it as a GOP “grift,” as they did in 2021.
- Historical Odds: Since 2003, when Gray Davis was recalled, 121 gubernatorial recall efforts nationwide have been tracked; only three made the ballot, and two succeeded. Newsom’s 2021 survival and six failed attempts since 2019 suggest recalls are more bark than bite in California’s current political landscape.
Bookmakers and prediction markets offer a vibe check. In January 2025, Polymarket pegged Newsom’s recall odds at 11% before July—not negligible, but a long shot. Past betting odds (e.g., Betfair’s 1/10 for him staying in 2021) aligned with his eventual win, hinting that the markets lean toward him enduring.
Bottom line: As of now, Newsom’s recall chances look slim—maybe 10–20%—barring a perfect storm of widespread outrage, flawless execution by organizers, and a funding windfall. California’s Democratic supermajority, his past resilience, and the recall’s logistical grind tilt the scales against it. That said, if wildfires or economic pain hit harder and organizers get their act together, it’s not impossible—just a steep uphill climb.
@Grok
www.zerohedge.com
