Arizona might flip for trump!
- Thread starter BRUTALITOPS
- Start date
No, it actually isn't. Something only becomes a federal court issue if it has some federal law or constitutional issue. If a state law or constitution has no conflict with federal laws or constitution, the federal courts have no standing to rule on anything.
It is amazing how quickly Republicans turn on states rights when they are losing due to them.
Because that is the way the Constitution set things up to be. It does seem bizarre, but Republicans strongly support it... Except when they lose.
You heard it here first
I'll show my work, let me walk you through it with my genius:
early this evening, There is 430k votes remaining, trump at a deficit of 68k
Trump needs to do around 58% for the rest of the remaining state. (430k-68k) = 363k | 363k * .51 = 184k | 184k + 68k =252k | 252 / 430 = .587
The remaining ballots are ballots pre-filled and dropped off in person.
This skews more conservative because while the media is considering these ballots "early voting" or "mail in ballots," they are functionally election day votes. They took their ballot, walked to the polls, and dropped it, in person.
These ballots were done from 11/2 - 11/4
They are doing oldest to newest. The closest we get to election day, the more it skews conservative.
These votes are coming from liberal maricopa county.
They are releasing batches of 50-60k at once tonight (i think they stopped now)
First batch that came in was 57% trump advantage
Second batch just came in. Demos were 39-26-30 rep-dem-independent. Trump gained 10k net. 35k-25k. The magic number we are seeing? 58%
That's two batches in a row from the most liberal county. There are still red counties ostanding. So far, trump is on pace with no area worse than where he already is
Independents in the state were leaning trump
So now we have data from two counties, in the most liberal area, oldest first, and they are both saying trump 58% roughly. As we get more batches in (next might be tomorrow afternoon) they might continue to skew trump as it becomes more equiv to election day voting which was 2:1 trump
The only mitigating factor is if the independents hold with trump. So far, they have in arizona. Basically we've knocked down a couple of dominoes, and if we get like another, we are fucking GOOD. Arizona will be fucking flipped. It was +900 last I checked. This is super early deep level news only retrieved from a genius like myself.
I can't find a place to bet or I would be betting trump now for arizona (even if trump loses no way his equity is this bad at this point)
I hope I don't look like an idiot
Pittafull, cuz you do.
Trump lost them all. What kind of reality have you constructed. Just saying it makes it so?