You know what is to going to be interesting in the 2012 election is the fight for Florida. From Obamas stand point Florida is the single most important state. Obama could lose the following swing states and still win relection. Va, NC, IN, CO NV, IA and OH.
Based on polling data that's not likely to happen. Obama has double digit polling leads over all the Republican candidates in all of those States except for Romney. Even against Romney the polling data indicates that this is not likely to happen either. I don't have data for Indiana and Iowa but assuming both favor Romney over Obama it wouldn't matter. Here's how Obama is polling against Romney in these States.
Folrida - Obama +5
Ohio - Obama +4
Nevada - Obama +1
Colorado - Obama +7
N. Carolina - Obama +3
Virginia - Obama +4
That's not good news for Romney as it shows winning the election, even with Obama's current low approval ratings, is a big uphill battle and the odds are against him (would be interesting to see what the line in Vegas is). If the election were to occur today and Romney was the Republican candidate, he would lose based on this data.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#