Let's face facts here. Florida is a must win state for Trump. If he loses Florida he has to win every other state currently considered a tossup, MI, PA, NC, WI, AZ. Considering he is currently down in the polling by about 6 points in MI and PA, the chances of him winning both of those states is not likely which means he really needs to win Florida. But what are his chances?
Currently Biden is polling with a 3 point lead in Florida. That is just the current period of time when Trump is looking bad for his leadership during the pandemic. If things turn around and jobs come back and the economy is roaring again in October that could change so I don't put much stock in the current polling.
But there are a couple of other things to consider. Trump only beat Clinton by 113,000 votes in 2016. At the same time Jill Stein got 67,000 votes and Gary Johnson got 207,000 votes. The potential voters in Florida have been increased by over a million voters as felons have been given back the right to vote in Florida after the voters passed a constitutional amendment. The court ruling over the weekend has essentially said Florida can't prevent those people from voting without violating the US Constitution. The amendment to the Florida Constitution means the state legislature can't pass legislation to prevent them from voting. After the Republican legislature and governor have done everything they can to prevent those felons from getting their voting rights back those new voters certainly have no reason to support a Republican candidate.
In past Presidential elections 72-75% of Florida's eligible voters have turned out to vote. If we assume everyone in Florida votes the same as last time and then add in the newly restored voters, it becomes hard for Trump to win the election in Florida. Even if 40% of those restored voters are willing to vote for a Republican there only needs to be a 60% turnout amongst them for Trump to lose Florida. If they turn out in the same percentages as the general population it only becomes harder for Trump. If they vote overwhelming against Republicans and have a large turnout Trump may lose Florida by over a million votes.
At this point I would say any future polling in Florida will be suspect since we don't know about those new voters, how they will turn out and if they are included in any currrent or future polling or if the pollsters are relying on previous voting patterns to adjust polls. No matter how you look at it, I suspect Trump will need to be leading by 4-5 points in polls to have a chance to win Florida. That currently isn't the case and only time will tell if he can come back from his current deficit.
Currently Biden is polling with a 3 point lead in Florida. That is just the current period of time when Trump is looking bad for his leadership during the pandemic. If things turn around and jobs come back and the economy is roaring again in October that could change so I don't put much stock in the current polling.
But there are a couple of other things to consider. Trump only beat Clinton by 113,000 votes in 2016. At the same time Jill Stein got 67,000 votes and Gary Johnson got 207,000 votes. The potential voters in Florida have been increased by over a million voters as felons have been given back the right to vote in Florida after the voters passed a constitutional amendment. The court ruling over the weekend has essentially said Florida can't prevent those people from voting without violating the US Constitution. The amendment to the Florida Constitution means the state legislature can't pass legislation to prevent them from voting. After the Republican legislature and governor have done everything they can to prevent those felons from getting their voting rights back those new voters certainly have no reason to support a Republican candidate.
In past Presidential elections 72-75% of Florida's eligible voters have turned out to vote. If we assume everyone in Florida votes the same as last time and then add in the newly restored voters, it becomes hard for Trump to win the election in Florida. Even if 40% of those restored voters are willing to vote for a Republican there only needs to be a 60% turnout amongst them for Trump to lose Florida. If they turn out in the same percentages as the general population it only becomes harder for Trump. If they vote overwhelming against Republicans and have a large turnout Trump may lose Florida by over a million votes.
At this point I would say any future polling in Florida will be suspect since we don't know about those new voters, how they will turn out and if they are included in any currrent or future polling or if the pollsters are relying on previous voting patterns to adjust polls. No matter how you look at it, I suspect Trump will need to be leading by 4-5 points in polls to have a chance to win Florida. That currently isn't the case and only time will tell if he can come back from his current deficit.
