Can you back it up?

Their are a few bright linings to an unlikely Trump win. The corporate media wont care, infact I suspect they would love it, they would certainty make more money.

yes they will. i will write about this later on when i feel like starting my blog again but CNN killed themselves and their future for hillary this cycle.
 
I am basing my opinion on polls, state and national. I always expected black vote to be down because Clinton is simply not Obama and not the first black president. I think Trump gets NC, I don't think he gets Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada or New Hampshire and without at least one of those I am almost certain he cant win. How that Correlates to black and Hispanic votes, I don't know.

But doesn't she have this great ground game? Are you saying these blacks and millennials (which you didn't comment on) said no when approached by the vaunted insurmountable Clinton ground game? I don't understand. Please explain the reality.
 
Also I don't recall Jarod ever saying he didn't expect Hillary to get the same level of support from the coloreds. I know I have been saying it for months now. Maybe Jarod can link up to that reality. Maybe he blogged about it?
 
Also Jarod what if the polls you are relying on are modeling based off of Obamas turnout with the coloreds and millennials?
 
I am basing my opinion on polls, state and national. I always expected black vote to be down because Clinton is simply not Obama and not the first black president. I think Trump gets NC, I don't think he gets Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada or New Hampshire and without at least one of those I am almost certain he cant win. How that Correlates to black and Hispanic votes, I don't know.

Well, PE/MI/WI re not Nevada and NH. Those latter two are traditionally GOP states that will be much easier for Douchebag Donald to carry. Obvious, the three rust belt states are a longshot, and he probably has no chance in Michigan or Wisconsin.
 
Well, PE/MI/WI re not Nevada and NH. Those latter two are traditionally GOP states that will be much easier for Douchebag Donald to carry. Obvious, the three rust belt states are a longshot, and he probably has no chance in Michigan or Wisconsin.

post your map :)
 
Ok. Then why? Surely you can come up with a reasonable explanation.

Nope, I have no idea. Its not reasonable that she thinks she will lose, and even if she did its not reasonable that she would cancel fireworks today.

Maybe she decided it was gosh to have fireworks.
 
Question for Jarod since you are so grounded in reality. All election season I have heard about this vaunted Clinton ground game and their GOTV efforts were just legendary and would dwarf any Trump support. So how do you explain early voting numbers being down across the board for Hillary among the blacks and the millennials? I would love to hear from a noted blogger such as yourself who prides himself on being rooted in reality


ROFL!!

Lookie at the desperate Trumpkin trying so very desperately to rationalize in his tiny brain how a Trump victory might still be possible.
 
some part of me wants trump to win so the ffin media has to deal with a hostile president for the next 8 years. The one they boost always wins. Hopefully it will encourage newere alternative media to pop up.

Some part of you? I thought every part of you wants Trump to win based on all the shilling you do for him.
 
some part of me wants trump to win so the ffin media has to deal with a hostile president for the next 8 years. The one they boost always wins. Hopefully it will encourage newere alternative media to pop up.

Alternative media will pop up regardless. All the major newspapers and media outlets are losing subscribers. Millennials as a rule don't watch them or read them, which makes this inevitable. If Hillary wins the 55% or so who voted against her will know that the system is rigged, and the media will lose even faster.
 
I keep hearing Trumpovites claiming that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are in play but the data I see says otherwise...

Is this just wishful thinking as a Trumpovite or do you have data to back it up?



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/.../michigan/#now

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...nsylvania/#now

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...wisconsin/#now

20% means it's in play. 20% is a frequent occurance that happens daily throughout our lives. WIth a 20% chance, you would expect such a thing to happen electoral once every 20 years. Rare, but not unheard of. This is of course an average of polls, and some polls including more recent ones have trump tied in michigan. You shouldn't start threads like this unless you understand basic statistics.
 
It's over .. it's been over for months now.

nate silver has given trump a 30% chance to win the election. He is not the favorite but 30% is about equal to rolling a five or 6 if you were to roll a die. Certainly not a rare unforeseen circumstance. His chances of winning the election are higher than the cubs winning the world series when they were down 3-1
 
Question for Jarod since you are so grounded in reality. All election season I have heard about this vaunted Clinton ground game and their GOTV efforts were just legendary and would dwarf any Trump support. So how do you explain early voting numbers being down across the board for Hillary among the blacks and the millennials? I would love to hear from a noted blogger such as yourself who prides himself on being rooted in reality

"ground game" is code for fraudulent voting........
 
You should admit reality, it will help you tomorrow night. Just admit that Trump is very unlikely to win.


it's 2:1 against trump winning. That much is obvious, clinton has always been the favorite, but liberals need to manage their own expectations. 30% isn't nothing. People have a tendency to round 30% down to zero in their minds. 30% isn't 0%, it's 30%. You would expect a 30% underdog to win once every 3 election cycles.

Additionally there is more uncertainty this electoral cycle. There are still more undecided voters right now than there were in 2012 that could break in either direction at the last minute.
 
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